Would Obama have won as the nominee in 2024?

[E-Dawg]

In this scenario, the 22nd amendment only bans being elected to over 2 consecutive terms, so Obama is allowed to run again for a 3rd nonconsecutive term. Here the same events as in our timeline unfold up until Biden drops out. Instead of the Democratic party consolidating around Harris, they instead consolidate around Obama and make him the nominee. Would he have defeated Trump?

[bagelman]

Nostalgia is a powerful force. I think he moves the needle just enough to get to 270.

[EastOfEden]

I'd say yes, but:

In the scenario where 2024 happens as it just did, and then the 22nd is changed, and he runs in 2028, he loses. I think this election has discredited "Obama and his people."

[Accordion Hazard]

Democratic turnout as a % of voting eligible population (VEP)

2012=29.9%
2024=30.8%

I'm increasingly wondering if Obama is overrated and just had favorable conditions (2008) or a weak opponent (2012). He'd have comfortably beaten Trump in 2016, where Trump got the same 27.7% of VEP as Romney did, but Trump in 2020-2024 had the best VEP performances (31.2% and 31.8%) since Reagan's 32.4% in 1984.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think he would lose honestly. By 2024, Obama has become way too out of touch with the country and has basically become a Martha's Vineyard wine liberal. His message to black men recently came off as condescending and arrogant, and that spark he once had in 2008 and managed to reignite again in 2012. The magic of Obama is gone, and Trump/MAGA is the dominant culture force now. I guess he might have won Nevada and maybe Michigan, but Trump would win AZ/GA/NC and only need to just peel one of the great lakes trio off.

[New World Man]

Obama is like Ronald Reagan or Trump. Extremely lucky. Yes he was talented,but now he's as put of touch as can be. His second term was trash that helped Trumpism gain strength.

[MABA 2020]

Good question, I think he wins actually, maybe one of the only Dems who could

[Mr. Smith]

No.

In 2016, the conservative media and GOP House would hound him over Benghazi instead of Hillary, meaning he wouldn't get to ride to the sunset.

In 2020, there was a sense of nostalgia and buyer's remorse, which might be enough.

But post-COVID? Forget it.

I'd trust Bill Clinton first, much better instincts, and he's extremely long in the tooth.

[E-Dawg]

No.

In 2016, the conservative media and GOP House would hound him over Benghazi instead of Hillary, meaning he wouldn't get to ride to the sunset.

In 2020, there was a sense of nostalgia and buyer's remorse, which might be enough.

But post-COVID? Forget it.

I'd trust Bill Clinton first, much better instincts, and he's extremely long in the tooth.

I agree Obama likely loses in 2024 (although he'd make it closer than Harris did), but I don't see him losing in 2016 since he is a far better candidate than Clinton, who barely lost.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

I think it's safe to say I have no idea how such a hypothetical 2024 election would turn out - I wasn't remotely close to being right on the one we actually had.

Personally, that would be a very difficult choice. Do I vote for the rich guy who profited from his office, whose Attorney General refused to pursue grave crimes, who did almost nothing to help Ukraine, oversaw a weaker American foreign policy while failing to resolve existing conflicts, exacerbated the existing disparities in American society, and supported a Republican health care plan... with a (D) or an (R) after his name?

[It's Time.]

My guess is he has enough WWC appeal (compared to Kamala) and nostalgia among millennials to pick of the rust belt and Nevada. He is also not associated with the baggage of inflation and the Biden administration. He would probably lose AZ, but GA/NC would be close

[E-Dawg]

Bumping this

[SN2903]

No. Trump still wins at least PA/WI/NC/AZ and likely GA. He had perfect timing post-Bush when the GOP brand was very unpopular. It was a fluke because people thought they were getting something else. Trump winning the last 2 of 3 elections and barely losing in 2020 proves this. He lost big in 2010 and 2014 and basically destroyed the Democrat brand on a national level with an identity politics agenda. Democrats lost an insane amount of national house seats and state house seats under his watch. 2012 he was beatable, but GOP nominating the wrong candidate and him being the first black President helped him get another term. It wasn't based on his record. I also disagree with a previous poster about 2016. I think Trump would have narrowly beaten Obama if he was able to run again. Trumpism is stronger than Obama's coalition ever was.

[#LANK]

He's as big as part of the problem as anyone else, like they need to stop listening to him and his people. If we still have a democracy in 2028 he gets to speak at the DNC that's it

[E-Dawg]

No. Trump still wins at least PA/WI/NC/AZ and likely GA. He had perfect timing post-Bush when the GOP brand was very unpopular. It was a fluke because people thought they were getting something else. Trump winning the last 2 of 3 elections and barely losing in 2020 proves this. He lost big in 2010 and 2014 and basically destroyed the Democrat brand on a national level with an identity politics agenda. Democrats lost an insane amount of national house seats and state house seats under his watch. 2012 he was beatable, but GOP nominating the wrong candidate and him being the first black President helped him get another term. It wasn't based on his record. I also disagree with a previous poster about 2016. I think Trump would have narrowly beaten Obama if he was able to run again. Trumpism is stronger than Obama's coalition ever was.

My reasoning for Obama winning 2016 is that he would have likely ran a better campaign than Hillary did and was already a better candidate, so since Hillary barely lost, I don't see why Obama wouldn't have taken the big 3 Midwestern states. Also, I'd argue that part of why Obama pulled off 2012 despite the mid economy was because he ran a really good campaign that year and very effectively defined Romney as an out of touch plutocrat, Obama successfully presented as the more populist candidate in 2012, just as Trump did against Hillary in 2016.

[iceman]

No, it’s fair to say that he is a washed up politician already.

DEMS need to have a fresh face as a nominee in 2028, someone who is not tied to Obama, Clinton, Biden, Harris.

[Duke of York]

Yes i think he would have. narrowly.