Could any incumbent (D or R) have won reelection in 2024?

[Sir Mohamed]

2024 seems to have been a tough race for any incumbent running for reelection. While age is what finally sunk Biden, he or any prez would have faced certain headwinds this year. Either factors beyond their control, or that would have been the result of implementing traditional Democratic or Republican policies over the 2021-24 period.

Could any incumbent prez - Dem or Rep - have won reelection this year? Of course, we're assuming their challenger isn't a uniquely flawed candidate (you might even argue Trump was a flawed candidate with all his baggage and that Generic R would have won bigger). We're also assuming inflation was still a major issue over their term.

What I find interesting is that both 2020 and 2024, two elections in a row, were elections that had pretty favorable fundamentals for a challenger. Not sure when this was the case the last time. Maybe 1976 and 1980.

[Samof94]

2024 seems to have been a tough race for any incumbent running for reelection. While age is what finally sunk Biden, he or any prez would have faced certain headwinds this year. Either factors beyond their control, or that would have been the result of implementing traditional Democratic or Republican policies over the 2021-24 period.

Could any incumbent prez - Dem or Rep - have won reelection this year? Of course, we're assuming their challenger isn't a uniquely flawed candidate (you might even argue Trump was a flawed candidate with all his baggage and that Generic R would have won bigger). We're also assuming inflation was still a major issue over their term.

What I find interesting is that both 2020 and 2024, two elections in a row, were elections that had pretty favorable fundamentals for a challenger. Not sure when this was the case the last time. Maybe 1976 and 1980.

A more generic D who was younger would have still had the same headwinds.

[Sir Mohamed]

2024 seems to have been a tough race for any incumbent running for reelection. While age is what finally sunk Biden, he or any prez would have faced certain headwinds this year. Either factors beyond their control, or that would have been the result of implementing traditional Democratic or Republican policies over the 2021-24 period.

Could any incumbent prez - Dem or Rep - have won reelection this year? Of course, we're assuming their challenger isn't a uniquely flawed candidate (you might even argue Trump was a flawed candidate with all his baggage and that Generic R would have won bigger). We're also assuming inflation was still a major issue over their term.

What I find interesting is that both 2020 and 2024, two elections in a row, were elections that had pretty favorable fundamentals for a challenger. Not sure when this was the case the last time. Maybe 1976 and 1980.

A more generic D who was younger would have still had the same headwinds.

Yup, that's what I meant. While age is what finally ended Biden's campaign, a younger version of him or any 50-year incumbent would have numerous challenges to overcome as well.

[dw93]

Against a scandalous, damaged opponent like Trump? Yes, abet very narrowly. Against strong opposition? No

[President Johnson]

I would say yes, if the president successfully painted his opponent as an out of touch elitist who wouldn't understand the pain of ordinary Americans. So either a liberal elitist (challenger to a Republican incumbent) or something like a venture capitalist of Republican donor circles (challenger to a Democratic president). Basically similar to the Bush 2004 and Obama 2012 playbooks. Keep in mind politics and election are often about sentiments and vibes, and if the incumbent - regardless of party - can claim the mantle as the working-class candidate, that's usually a recipe for victory.

Of course the president needs some level charisma in addition and convince the electorate to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even if the perceived economy isn't overwhelmingly great. The US economy was objectively in worse shape back in 2012, yet voters were still ready to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

[Samof94]

I would say yes, if the president successfully painted his opponent as an out of touch elitist who wouldn't understand the pain of ordinary Americans. So either a liberal elitist (challenger to a Republican incumbent) or something like a venture capitalist of Republican donor circles (challenger to a Democratic president). Basically similar to the Bush 2004 and Obama 2012 playbooks. Keep in mind politics and election are often about sentiments and vibes, and if the incumbent - regardless of party - can claim the mantle as the working-class candidate, that's usually a recipe for victory.

Of course the president needs some level charisma in addition and convince the electorate to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even if the perceived economy isn't overwhelmingly great. The US economy was objectively in worse shape back in 2012, yet voters were still ready to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

inflation wasn't as big an issue at the time.

[Sir Mohamed]

I would say yes, if the president successfully painted his opponent as an out of touch elitist who wouldn't understand the pain of ordinary Americans. So either a liberal elitist (challenger to a Republican incumbent) or something like a venture capitalist of Republican donor circles (challenger to a Democratic president). Basically similar to the Bush 2004 and Obama 2012 playbooks. Keep in mind politics and election are often about sentiments and vibes, and if the incumbent - regardless of party - can claim the mantle as the working-class candidate, that's usually a recipe for victory.

Of course the president needs some level charisma in addition and convince the electorate to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even if the perceived economy isn't overwhelmingly great. The US economy was objectively in worse shape back in 2012, yet voters were still ready to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

That sounds plausible.

Inflation wasn't much of an issue in 2012 though, unemployment and growth were. The reason Obama was given the benefit of the doubt is voters still remembering Wall Street crashed under W's admin, and Romney was pretty bad at distancing himself from the former prez. He was seen as a potential 3rd term of W that no one wanted.

[BlueSwan]

Sure. Any republican would have probably won reelection given how strong the economy is. And this is coming from someone who thinks that "fundamentals" are vastly overrated.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sure. Any republican would have probably won reelection given how strong the economy is. And this is coming from someone who thinks that "fundamentals" are vastly overrated.

Why only an R? Any R-incumbent would have faced inflation as well.

[ottermax]

A Republican incumbent would've lost much worse because the American public expects the economy to perform well when Republicans are in charge and are quick to abandon them if the results are poor - see 2008, 1992, 1932...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure. Any republican would have probably won reelection given how strong the economy is. And this is coming from someone who thinks that "fundamentals" are vastly overrated.

Why only an R? Any R-incumbent would have faced inflation as well.

It seems like these past few years Republicans have been much better at controlling the narrative, especially through newer forms of mass media like social media. I could see an argument that had Trump won re-election in 2020 and the economy ended up being similar there still would've been a more dominant narrative of "Trump beat COVID and inflation!!!", a narrative that just never could've existed for Biden because of Dem's relative weakness on these sorts of platforms.

[Blazers93]

It Biden were 10 years younger and stayed in, I think he would've won with the 286 map (blue wall+GA) but that's a silly hypothetical. Harris lost decisively but the total margin in the three rust belt states was less than 250k. Bad year for incumbents globally but Biden's record could have won him a second term if he was a competent messenger

[President Johnson]

It Biden were 10 years younger and stayed in, I think he would've won with the 286 map (blue wall+GA) but that's a silly hypothetical. Harris lost decisively but the total margin in the three rust belt states was less than 250k. Bad year for incumbents globally but Biden's record could have won him a second term if he was a competent messenger

The Biden of 2012 or even of 2016 would have been a much more effective campaigner and public messager. I couldn't agree more.

Really feels like Biden and Obama were presidents in the wrong order.

[Samof94]

It Biden were 10 years younger and stayed in, I think he would've won with the 286 map (blue wall+GA) but that's a silly hypothetical. Harris lost decisively but the total margin in the three rust belt states was less than 250k. Bad year for incumbents globally but Biden's record could have won him a second term if he was a competent messenger

The Biden of 2012 or even of 2016 would have been a much more effective campaigner and public messager. I couldn't agree more.

Really feels like Biden and Obama were presidents in the wrong order.

Due to his age. Yeah, Biden wouldn't have had to drop out if this was 2016 instead of 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It Biden were 10 years younger and stayed in, I think he would've won with the 286 map (blue wall+GA) but that's a silly hypothetical. Harris lost decisively but the total margin in the three rust belt states was less than 250k. Bad year for incumbents globally but Biden's record could have won him a second term if he was a competent messenger

The Biden of 2012 or even of 2016 would have been a much more effective campaigner and public messager. I couldn't agree more.

Really feels like Biden and Obama were presidents in the wrong order.

I've been saying this since 2016. We needed an Obama now while any Democrat would have won in 2008.

And for butterfly effect reasons, Trump probably wouldn't have taken over the GOP if there wasn't eight years of Obama.