If you just saw the Washington results, who wins?

[Pericles]

The Washington State primary was supposed to be one of the go-to indicators of the national environment. Unfortunately, it turned out that state had the smallest rightward swing of any state so it just reflected what was going on in Washington. If you could see all the results in Washington but no other information, what would you think happened?

Still according to this webpage, which would appear to include the certified results:

Harris  (D):    2,245,849      (57.23%)         
Trump  (R):    1,530,923      (39.01%)
Others     :        147,473      ( 3.8%)
TV:                3,924,245
RV:                5,018,245   
TO:                                     (78.94%)

https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20241105/president-vice-president.html

2020 Finals were:

Biden  (D):     2,369,612      (57.97%)         
Trump  (R):    1,584,651      (38.77%)
Others     :        133,368     ( 3.3%)
TV:                4,087,631      
RV:                4,892,871   
TO:                                     (84.14%)


So Looks Like from 2020 >24

TV=  (-)   163,386
RV=  (+)  125,374
TO=  (-)   5.2%

DEM=  (-) 0.74%
PUB=   (+) 0.24%
Swing=  (+) 0.96% R

Raw Vote from '20 to '24=

DEM:      (-)   123,763
PUB:       (-)    53,728
Others:   (+)   14,105

[West_Midlander]

This is the map, a Harris squeaker, which was my expectation for a significant part of the campaign post-Harris/Trump debate. I was also skeptical that Nevada would flip. Dems flip the House and lose the Senate ITTL. Harris wins the NPV by somewhere between D+0.6% to D+1.7%. Michigan is the tipping point.

[Samof94]

This is the map, a Harris squeaker, which was my expectation for a significant part of the campaign post-Harris/Trump debate. I was also skeptical that Nevada would flip. Dems flip the House and lose the Senate ITTL. Harris wins the NPV by somewhere between D+0.6% to D+1.7%. Michigan is the tipping point.

This seems like a best case scenario for Harris

[Mr. Smith]

Harris, comfortably. Perfect 2020 Map.

[Pericles]

Harris, comfortably. Perfect 2020 Map.

Though we know now that a whiter well educated state like that would trend left, but did we expect at the time for it to have more of a progressive or safe state backlash? Trump still gained a point even if he lost badly.