Contradictions in 2024 Congressional Results

[ottermax]

I find it fascinating that Democrats gained seats almost exclusively in Republican trending states (NY, CA) with Oregon being the only exception, while Republicans made gains in mostly Democratic trending states (CO, AK, MI, technically PA, and then NC although that was due to redistricting).

Specifically Democrats actually made gains in seats that were heavily Hispanic or Asian in CA (and technically in NY for NY-4 I believe). Only one Hispanic seat flipped to the GOP in the rather bizarre CO-8 district which barely flipped.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah it certainly is interesting, especially seeing Dems flip seats R-->D as Trump flips the seat D-->R Presidentially.

It seems like in 2022, there were a bunch of mini-waves that sort of overshot things, and in 2024 we saw a bit of reversion. Even though CO Dems still held up much better than NY Dems this cycle, the delta between them shrunk from 2022.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Can't say for certain, and certainly a good deal at the U.S House level is based on the campaign of the local candidate (such as a House district is 'local') but it wouldn't surprise me with California and New York is that the California Democrats have been snapped out of their compacency while the New York Democrats are under new and better management.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861869551522029918
https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861870017945428228

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah it certainly is interesting, especially seeing Dems flip seats R-->D as Trump flips the seat D-->R Presidentially.

It seems like in 2022, there were a bunch of mini-waves that sort of overshot things, and in 2024 we saw a bit of reversion. Even though CO Dems still held up much better than NY Dems this cycle, the delta between them shrunk from 2022.

Yeah that makes sense. CA, NY, OR had mini red-waves in 2022 and CO, MI, PA had mini blue-waves.

The redder environment in CO suggests to me Boebert would have won a rematch with Frisch had she stayed in CO-03. Trump seems to have won CO-03 by 9, and Boebert is only running behind him in CO-04 by 7. Though Frisch being a stronger and more well-funded candidate than Calvarese may offset that a bit.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861869551522029918
https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861870017945428228

As I was going to add to my previous post, which was a point I forgot to make originally, I think the overall decline, but turnarouds with some of the 'lowest hanging fruit' might be the result of any time lag before the evidence of the improved state party apparatus is apparent at the state level.

[CentristRepublican]

Yeah it certainly is interesting, especially seeing Dems flip seats R-->D as Trump flips the seat D-->R Presidentially.

It seems like in 2022, there were a bunch of mini-waves that sort of overshot things, and in 2024 we saw a bit of reversion. Even though CO Dems still held up much better than NY Dems this cycle, the delta between them shrunk from 2022.

Yeah I agree, this was definitely true for CA.

NY is slightly muckier because of redistricting but the new maps notwithstanding, Dems definitely did improve from 2022 (also benefitted from better candidates in some of those races - Suozzi was probably one of the only Dems that could've held NY-03).

[CentristRepublican]

https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861869551522029918
https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861870017945428228

Can't really call NC a bright spot at the federal level when the R mander netted them 3 seats out of there (the same as PA and MI combined). Granted, it could've been worse; and Don Davis deserves accolades.

But still, as far as congressional elections go, the 7-7 in 2022 is probably our high-water mark in the House for a while. Senate we have a good chance of in 2026, but House is pretty cooked.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861869551522029918
https://twitter.com/john12948833/status/1861870017945428228

Can't really call NC a bright spot at the federal level when the R mander netted them 3 seats out of there (the same as PA and MI combined). Granted, it could've been worse; and Don Davis deserves accolades.

But still, as far as congressional elections go, the 7-7 in 2022 is probably our high-water mark in the House for a while. Senate we have a good chance of in 2026, but House is pretty cooked.

Dems just need to win back the state courts and they can get fair maps in place by 2030. They need to win 3/4 of the races being held in 2026 and 2028.

[nclib]

Can't really call NC a bright spot at the federal level when the R mander netted them 3 seats out of there (the same as PA and MI combined). Granted, it could've been worse; and Don Davis deserves accolades.

But still, as far as congressional elections go, the 7-7 in 2022 is probably our high-water mark in the House for a while. Senate we have a good chance of in 2026, but House is pretty cooked.

The only bad thing for NC Dems in 2024 is entirely due to redistricting. We elected plenty of council of state, a supreme court race, and gained seats in our state House and state Senate, breaking the GOP's supermajority.

[Smash255]

I find it fascinating that Democrats gained seats almost exclusively in Republican trending states (NY, CA) with Oregon being the only exception, while Republicans made gains in mostly Democratic trending states (CO, AK, MI, technically PA, and then NC although that was due to redistricting).

Specifically Democrats actually made gains in seats that were heavily Hispanic or Asian in CA (and technically in NY for NY-4 I believe). Only one Hispanic seat flipped to the GOP in the rather bizarre CO-8 district which barely flipped.

In NY some of it is simply how bad a year for Democrats 2022 was.   Trump did much better in NY in 2024 than 2020, but not as good as the top of the ticket in 2022 with Zeldin.   Democrats also had a much stronger candidate in NY-03 with Suozzi, and NY-04 was a rematch of a tight 2022 race in which the GOP candidate was involved in their own scandal. Turnout was also a factor