Results for state capitals

[nclib]

Every state capital whose county voted for Harris, is almost certain she carried the capital city. The only capital counties that were close are Kent, DE (Dover) and Shawnee, KS (Topeka). Augusta, ME went for Harris, as New England results are available by town.

That leaves:

Salem, OR
Carson City, NV
Phoenix, AZ
Juneau, AK
Boise, ID
Helena, MT
Cheyenne, WY
Bismarck, ND
Pierre, SD
Topeka, KS
Oklahoma City, OK
Jefferson City, MO
Springfield, IL
Frankfort, KY
Charleston, WV
Dover, DE

Carson City is consolidated and went for Trump. Phoenix, Dover, Topeka, Springfield almost certainly went for Harris. Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, Jefferson City almost certainly went for Trump.

Any educated guesses on these:

Salem, OR
Juneau, AK
Boise, ID
Helena, MT
Frankfort, KY
Charleston, WV

Also interesting that only 2 capital city counties (Carson City, NV and Thurston, WA (Olympia)) swung Dem.

[Tekken_Guy]

Salem and Phoenix are the only capital cities in Biden-Trump counties.

[Linda Van der Hampel]

Any educated guesses on these:

Boise, ID

Harris?

[Linda Van der Hampel]

You can clearly see the longer Garden City precinct and to the east, it's Downtown Boise, which is heavily blue (Harris).

The Western parts of Boise are somewhat Trump, but most of the city is very blue.

[RBH]

Harris did win two precincts in Jefferson City (Ward 1/Precinct 1 went 52/46 Harris, Ward 2/Precinct 1 went 56/43 Harris). In other words, she did not do very well in Jeff City aside from two precincts which were over 1/3rd Black.

She did win the precinct with the capital building though.

[Mr. Smith]

Every state capital whose county voted for Harris, is almost certain she carried the capital city. The only capital counties that were close are Kent, DE (Dover) and Shawnee, KS (Topeka). Augusta, ME went for Harris, as New England results are available by town.

That leaves:

Salem, OR
Carson City, NV
Phoenix, AZ
Juneau, AK
Boise, ID
Helena, MT
Cheyenne, WY
Bismarck, ND
Pierre, SD
Topeka, KS
Oklahoma City, OK
Jefferson City, MO
Springfield, IL
Frankfort, KY
Charleston, WV
Dover, DE

Carson City is consolidated and went for Trump. Phoenix, Dover, Topeka, Springfield almost certainly went for Harris. Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, Jefferson City almost certainly went for Trump.

Any educated guesses on these:

Salem, OR
Juneau, AK
Boise, ID
Helena, MT
Frankfort, KY
Charleston, WV

Also interesting that only 2 capital city counties (Carson City, NV and Thurston, WA (Olympia)) swung Dem.

Salem probably went to Harris.
Juneau and Helena did.
Frankfort no idea, the county went to Trump tho...
Boise and Charleston, WV prolly went to Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Salem and Phoenix are the only capital cities in Biden-Trump counties.

And I am 100% positive that Harris won Salem OR.

Still waiting for the final certified results to crunch total numbers in terms of numbers but it's really easy to go the Marion County website and pull up precinct numbers.

As I mentioned on another thread the other week it does look like there was both a significant drop-off of both TV and TO % in some of the East Salem precincts with a higher % of Latino voters.

There were also swings towards Trump in some of these precincts I looked at, but again one of the problems with somewhere like Salem is that precinct lines lack the granularity they did some 20 years ago with consolidation of precinct size with the shift to all VbM.

So now even the most heavily Latino precincts of Salem are only something like ~45% Latino and considering the VAP gap, likely RVs are significantly lower.

Still regardless these are the canvass results as of 11/26/24  18:12 Pacific Time.

There are probably still some ballots out there in Marion, they added (270) today which were most likely cures.

Regardless having a hard time seeing a massive number of ballots outstanding unless there was a wave of "cures" today and won't get posted until their next update.

Who knows maybe they got a spare 2-3k ballots floating around, but I strongly doubt it.

For those of y'all not familiar with the Mid Valley, there are always running jokes about they always seem to get disproportionate highway repair jobs, education, and various GVT jobs from Law Enforcement, Teaching, etc....

Pretty sure their County election office is funded.

https://www.co.marion.or.us/CO/elections/Results/Documents/20241105/Canvass%20Results-11-26-2024%2006-12-38%20PM.pdf

Now here is the ArcGis precinct map for Marion County:

Basically just tally up all of the precincts with a "300" code and you should be hitting the vast majority of the city.

Trump basically lost all "300" precincts, frequently by 2:1 margins, average something like 6:4, and then drops down to the 5.2-5.4 vs the 4.5 and 4.7 HTH.

Trump won only (3) precincts in Salem with a combined 1,314 '24 PREZ Votes.

The only one of any size was Precinct #333 which encompasses a large Christian University.

Even there it looks like Oregon Evangelical Young Christians appear to be relatively inelastic.   

2024:

Trump:   585    (51.7%)      +20    (+0.9%)
Harris:    497    (43.9%)      -23     (-2.8%)
TV:      1,132                                                  +19

2020:

Trump: 565 (50.8%)
Biden:  520 (46.7%)
TV:      1,113


Now toss in some of the "600" code and should start to get an idea. Now not all '600 precincts are City of Salem so still don't anybody get their hopes up ...   

https://marioncounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=f3ee3cce78a941f5bd21c9c5372bf01a

[TWTown]

Harris won Juneau, at least according to Alaska’s SOS results. She also won Salem, Marion County narrowly went for Trump. I wanna say she won Boise as well, narrowly

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

I feel pretty safe in thinking Harris won Juneau.

[CentristRepublican]

This becomes pretty straightforward once you pull up 2020 results (spoiler alert - all those you listed most likely voted for Harris):

Charleston was Biden+19 so it definitely voted for Harris.
Frankfort was Biden+14 so almost certainly broke for Harris.
Helena was a whopping Biden+26 so most definitely stayed D.
Juneau was also Biden+26 so it almost certainly voted for Harris (I'm not saying "certainly" just because of how completely funky AK politics is).
Salem was Biden+18, so again, it voted for Harris for sure.
And Boise was Biden+22.

[NOVA Green]

This becomes pretty straightforward once you pull up 2020 results (spoiler alert - all those you listed most likely voted for Harris):

Charleston was Biden+19 so it definitely voted for Harris.
Frankfort was Biden+14 so almost certainly broke for Harris.
Helena was a whopping Biden+26 so most definitely stayed D.
Juneau was also Biden+26 so it almost certainly voted for Harris (I'm not saying "certainly" just because of how completely funky AK politics is).
Salem was Biden+18, so again, it voted for Harris for sure.
And Boise was Biden+22.

Well regarding Juneau it's less of the politics IMHO than in how votes are tabulated and district maps, plus recent HD redistricting confusing things, etc...

So let's look at Alaska HD-04, with the maps from the 5/15/23 redistricting plan...

It looks like the following precincts might be or are within Juneau proper:

04-100
04-105
04-110- Juneau #1
04-115-     Juneau #2
04-120       Juneau #3                               
04-125
04-130
04-135

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/maps/2023-precincts/HD4_May2023Final_Maps.pdf

I tried looking at the State ArcGis to see if I could get a clear look at precincts versus city limits, but couldn't find a way to layer it properly?

So basically we are looking at a huge chunk of HD-04 where precincts are located within Anchorage, but now we get to the funky bit.

Out of the 9.3k ballots counted in AK-HD-04 a majority are labeled "Absentee, Early Voting, and Provisional but not broken out by precinct!

Still looking at AK-HD-04 Final Votes:

Harris:      6,160   (66.5%)
Trump:     2,690    (29.0%)
Others:        418   ( 4.5%)
TV:          9,268

NOW we do have some precincts from Juneau in HD-03 by the looks of it, but a large chunk of the votes from the HD aren't part of the city so not sure how to chop them because they are lumped up....

   

So in AK-HD-04 we have 9,333 TVs out of 15,445 RVs.

[nclib]

Forgot to mention OKC on the last list. Since it votes to the right to OK County, and OK County swung to the right, is this enough or do we need to look more closely?

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Franklin County is pretty polarized between Frankfort and the rurals. I'm pretty sure the GOP would be winning the county by double digits if Frankfort proper was voting R.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Forgot to mention OKC on the last list. Since it votes to the right to OK County, and OK County swung to the right, is this enough or do we need to look more closely?

I'm pretty sure that OKC votes a hair to the left of Oklahoma County as a whole, since Edmond provides a lot of GOP votes. It is worth noting, however, that OKC has portions in three other counties (Cleveland, Canadian, Pottawatomie); while these portions are very Republican, the portion strictly in Oklahoma County is fairly Dem-leaning these days.

That said, since Trump won OKC in 2020 and Oklahoma County swung R, it's fair to assume that OKC swung R as well (Hispanic swings probably a lot of it).