Political Futures of the Impeachment Republicans

[Zenobiyl]

Anthony Gonzalez: None
John Katko: None
Tom Rice: None
Fred Upton: None

Liz Cheney / Adam Kinzinger: Token republican in a future dem cabinet?

Jaime Herrera Beutler: Could run for her house seat again, seeing as republicans clearly need someone electable to oust MGP.

Peter Meijer: Tries for senate in 2026? Just about the only candidate who could make it tilt R right out the gate, but surviving a primary would be tough.

Dan Newhouse: By this point he’s probably safe, but a MAGA republican could lock him out of the runoff if he doesn’t win enough democrat votes.

David Valadao: If he survives 2026, then that seat is his for life.

[Talleyrand]

Why would Meijier make the Michigan senate seat Tilt R in 2026? Peters isn't safe at all, but that seems like a stretch.

[Vosem]

Newhouse's first round performances are still not all that strong and I think he's vulnerable to getting boxed out, especially if there's a good Democratic year and Democrats in that seat run too hot.

I think JHB and Meijer remain pretty live options in the post-Trump party; JHB outright won a statewide nomination in 2024, after all. I think she'd struggle to get nominated for her seat in 2026, but in something like a Democratic midterm in 2030 she could probably have a comeback if she wants. There are no guarantees but neither seem dead. Gonzalez is young enough that he could have a comeback decades from now, if he wants, though he really didn't seem like he liked politics all that much.

Cheney and Kinzinger really seem like they've abandoned the GOP entirely. Katko, Rice, and Upton seem like they've left politics.

Valadao seems like he's actually weathered the storm; his seat is blue enough and parochial enough, and his ties with national leadership strong enough, that the efforts to primary him have died down and the whole thing seems like it's gotten relegated to the rearview mirror. I think he has more to fear from a Democratic challenger in a blue year than from a right-wing primary effort.

[windjammer]

I have some fantasy scenarios where NewHouse would become the speaker!

[New World Man]

Newhouse should be ok. He's an example where I would hope Dem's in that district would let him pass,a Dem isn't winning it anyway. Better than a MAGA.

[Zenobiyl]

Why would Meijier make the Michigan senate seat Tilt R in 2026? Peters isn't safe at all, but that seems like a stretch.

Meijer can distance himself from MAGA and appeal to suburbs.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

JHB only lost this year's land commissioner vote by 5.5%...and really, she came only 49 votes from being elected because that was the difference between the Dem who beat her making the top 2 and another Republican making the top 2 and locking Dems out. I can see her giving it another go or running for something local.

Kinzinger's future in politics if he has one is running for Congress as a Democrat. He's just fully bluepilled now.

[MargieCat]

JHB only lost this year's land commissioner vote by 5.5%...and really, she came only 59 votes from being elected because that was the difference between the Dem who beat her making the top 2 and another Republican making the top 2 and locking Dems out. I can see her giving it another go or running for something local.

Kinzinger's future in politics if he has one is running for Congress as a Democrat. He's just fully bluepilled now.

On Tim Miller's podcast, Beto said he thinks Kinzinger would make a great Dem candidate for Texas.

He could even run as an Independent like Dan Osborn/Evan McMullin/Al Gross.

I think the same about Will Hurd, who will never win a GOP primary.

[CentristRepublican]

Newhouse's first round performances are still not all that strong and I think he's vulnerable to getting boxed out, especially if there's a good Democratic year and Democrats in that seat run too hot.

I think JHB and Meijer remain pretty live options in the post-Trump party; JHB outright won a statewide nomination in 2024, after all. I think she'd struggle to get nominated for her seat in 2026, but in something like a Democratic midterm in 2030 she could probably have a comeback if she wants. There are no guarantees but neither seem dead. Gonzalez is young enough that he could have a comeback decades from now, if he wants, though he really didn't seem like he liked politics all that much.

Cheney and Kinzinger really seem like they've abandoned the GOP entirely. Katko, Rice, and Upton seem like they've left politics.

Valadao seems like he's actually weathered the storm; his seat is blue enough and parochial enough, and his ties with national leadership strong enough, that the efforts to primary him have died down and the whole thing seems like it's gotten relegated to the rearview mirror. I think he has more to fear from a Democratic challenger in a blue year than from a right-wing primary effort.

Agreed with this though I think Meijer isn't winning anything. He fell flat in his Senate bid and feels irrelevant - he was only a rich guy one-termer, after all.

JHB seems strong though - I just checked out her 2024 statewide performance and wow, she only lost by 5 point something percent. Pretty damn impressive when you consider how well Democrats held up at the presidential level.

Now that Kent has lost a very winnable seat twice for the Republicans, I wonder if he may be forced out in 2026. JHB definitely has a chance at a Congressional comeback; I think 2028 would be a good year in terms of her chances against MGP.

[Tekken_Guy]

Newhouse's first round performances are still not all that strong and I think he's vulnerable to getting boxed out, especially if there's a good Democratic year and Democrats in that seat run too hot.

I think JHB and Meijer remain pretty live options in the post-Trump party; JHB outright won a statewide nomination in 2024, after all. I think she'd struggle to get nominated for her seat in 2026, but in something like a Democratic midterm in 2030 she could probably have a comeback if she wants. There are no guarantees but neither seem dead. Gonzalez is young enough that he could have a comeback decades from now, if he wants, though he really didn't seem like he liked politics all that much.

Cheney and Kinzinger really seem like they've abandoned the GOP entirely. Katko, Rice, and Upton seem like they've left politics.

Valadao seems like he's actually weathered the storm; his seat is blue enough and parochial enough, and his ties with national leadership strong enough, that the efforts to primary him have died down and the whole thing seems like it's gotten relegated to the rearview mirror. I think he has more to fear from a Democratic challenger in a blue year than from a right-wing primary effort.

Agreed with this though I think Meijer isn't winning anything. He fell flat in his Senate bid and feels irrelevant - he was only a rich guy one-termer, after all.

JHB seems strong though - I just checked out her 2024 statewide performance and wow, she only lost by 5 point something percent. Pretty damn impressive when you consider how well Democrats held up at the presidential level.

Now that Kent has lost a very winnable seat twice for the Republicans, I wonder if he may be forced out in 2026. JHB definitely has a chance at a Congressional comeback; I think 2028 would be a good year in terms of her chances against MGP.

Problem with JHB is her ability to get through a jungle primary.

[New World Man]

Valadao seems to always survive somehow(save for 2018).

[Atlas Force]

What if MGP runs for higher office and endorses JHB to succeed her in WA-03

[Talleyrand]

What if MGP runs for higher office and endorses JHB to succeed her in WA-03

This is as unlikely as Collins returning and endorsing Golden to replace her in the Senate.