2 years out, what's your realistic range of national environments?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be an R Environment when Trump agenda gets passed, and everyone knows it

[Talleyrand]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

[CityofSinners]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

[GAinDC]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Thanks! So something like a 6 point swing toward Dems is reasonable to expect

[Compuzled_One]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Wasn't it D+7.3% and R+1.6% based on the shave?

[CityofSinners]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Wasn't it D+7.3% and R+1.6% based on the shave?

Depends on if you look at Cook or split ticket. And if you compare shave to shave or presidental results to shave.
Both are fine estimates.

[Compuzled_One]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Wasn't it D+7.3% and R+1.6% based on the shave?

Depends on if you look at Cook or split ticket. And if you compare shave to shave or presidental results to shave.
Both are fine estimates.

Got it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

Yes, but there were a lot of uncontested Dem seats in heavy McCain areas which allowed them to run up the score a lot. For example 3/4 Arkansas seats had no R candidate despite McCain winning them by a heavy amount.

[Don't Be A Carrot Vote For Garrett]

R+2 to D+8 is probably a decent range, provided it's a free and fair election (which it probably will be, but we can't be fully sure)

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

D+3 to D+10.

[หมูเด้ง]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Wasn't it D+7.3% and R+1.6% based on the shave?

Depends on if you look at Cook or split ticket. And if you compare shave to shave or presidental results to shave.
Both are fine estimates.

If this is an average year, that should give us D +4.5 or something. Probably enough to win 12-15 seats, defend GA and MI and probably pick off ME and NC. That seat 50 probably is probably Iowa and its probably lost by 5 or 6.
So yeah. That's my prediction 49-51 R Senate, 228-207 D House.  

My scenarios-

Democrats are the weakest opposition in living memory, Trump has a Clinton-2nd term-  R+4, 209-226 R house, 45-55 R senate
After 25 years, people finally tune out of politics- D+1 223-212 D House, 47-53 R Senate
Trump has a typical 6 year itch, the Trump has an Obama 2nd term- - D+6   238-197 D House 49-51 R or 50-50 Couch Senate
Something really bad happens. The Trump has W's 2nd term or worse-  Basically a mix of the Trump being The Trump and people getting tired- D+ 12 247-188 D House 52-48 D Senate

The median outcome is probably a mix of 2 and 3. There's always this anxiety that "were in a bubble" economically but Trump's theory as treating foreign governments and businesses like rival mob bosses actually keeps things from ever boiling over. However, there are some overreaches on abortion and Zionism and probably other things. It's like the late 90s but there is a cultural backlash.  and people MAGA people kind of feel that "they've Made America Great Again" but Liberals just come out out of habit.

[GAinDC]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

In 2018 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was D+8,6%. A swing of D+6,5% vs 2016.

In 2022 national popular house vote adjusted for uncontested races was R+2%. A swing of R+6% vs 2020.

Wasn't it D+7.3% and R+1.6% based on the shave?

Depends on if you look at Cook or split ticket. And if you compare shave to shave or presidental results to shave.
Both are fine estimates.

If this is an average year, that should give us D +4.5 or something. Probably enough to win 12-15 seats, defend GA and MI and probably pick off ME and NC. That seat 50 probably is probably Iowa and its probably lost by 5 or 6.
So yeah. That's my prediction 49-51 R Senate, 228-207 D House.  

My scenarios-

Democrats are the weakest opposition in living memory, Trump has a Clinton-2nd term-  R+4, 209-226 R house, 45-55 R senate
After 25 years, people finally tune out of politics- D+1 223-212 D House, 47-53 R Senate
Trump has a typical 6 year itch, the Trump has an Obama 2nd term- - D+6   238-197 D House 49-51 R or 50-50 Couch Senate
Something really bad happens. The Trump has W's 2nd term or worse-  Basically a mix of the Trump being The Trump and people getting tired- D+ 12 247-188 D House 52-48 D Senate

The median outcome is probably a mix of 2 and 3. There's always this anxiety that "were in a bubble" economically but Trump's theory as treating foreign governments and businesses like rival mob bosses actually keeps things from ever boiling over. However, there are some overreaches on abortion and Zionism and probably other things. It's like the late 90s but there is a cultural backlash.  and people MAGA people kind of feel that "they've Made America Great Again" but Liberals just come out out of habit.

Republicans actually won the house vote in 1998 (R+1) but they already had a majority, so they lost a few seats with that result

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As I said TX, GA, FL and NEB, UT will get redder and NC, OH, IA will get bluer but we will see IA, OH, GA, NC and ME if Ds can capture S majority

The reason why TX and FL will get redder it's redistricting time and CA and NY are gonna lose Rs and TX and FL are gonna lose D

Those Rs that survived in 24 in NY and CA are gonna lose in 26 and be redistricting out anyways. 

[minisoldr]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

Yes, but there were a lot of uncontested Dem seats in heavy McCain areas which allowed them to run up the score a lot. For example 3/4 Arkansas seats had no R candidate despite McCain winning them by a heavy amount.

I knew Pryor ran unopposed for Senate that year, but I didn't realize that extended to 3 House seats too. Wonder what happened there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

Yes, but there were a lot of uncontested Dem seats in heavy McCain areas which allowed them to run up the score a lot. For example 3/4 Arkansas seats had no R candidate despite McCain winning them by a heavy amount.

I knew Pryor ran unopposed for Senate that year, but I didn't realize that extended to 3 House seats too. Wonder what happened there.

AR downballot was almost like an RGV situation for Democrats - went from a strongly Dem region that was unwinnable for downballot Rs to an R stronghold up and down the ballot.

Consider too at this time there was a lot more ticket-splitting and local brands mattered a lot more, so a state voting one way federally did by no means mean that party would be even competative downballot.

[Samof94]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

Yes, but there were a lot of uncontested Dem seats in heavy McCain areas which allowed them to run up the score a lot. For example 3/4 Arkansas seats had no R candidate despite McCain winning them by a heavy amount.

I knew Pryor ran unopposed for Senate that year, but I didn't realize that extended to 3 House seats too. Wonder what happened there.

AR downballot was almost like an RGV situation for Democrats - went from a strongly Dem region that was unwinnable for downballot Rs to an R stronghold up and down the ballot.

Consider too at this time there was a lot more ticket-splitting and local brands mattered a lot more, so a state voting one way federally did by no means mean that party would be even competative downballot.

Ds in red states were very conservative compared to the national party.

[JGibson]

R+2.5 to D+11 Zone.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

R+2.5 to D+11 Zone.

Ds are gonna win more CA and NY seats and PA seats in the midterm due to redistricting

[smoltchanov]

Didn't Dems do better in Congress than the presidency in 2008?

Yes, but there were a lot of uncontested Dem seats in heavy McCain areas which allowed them to run up the score a lot. For example 3/4 Arkansas seats had no R candidate despite McCain winning them by a heavy amount.

I knew Pryor ran unopposed for Senate that year, but I didn't realize that extended to 3 House seats too. Wonder what happened there.

AR downballot was almost like an RGV situation for Democrats - went from a strongly Dem region that was unwinnable for downballot Rs to an R stronghold up and down the ballot.

Consider too at this time there was a lot more ticket-splitting and local brands mattered a lot more, so a state voting one way federally did by no means mean that party would be even competative downballot.

Ds in red states were very conservative compared to the national party.

Well, on "absolute scale" most of these Democrats were rather centrists (no comparison with REAL conservatives of 1950th - 1970th) , but for present day (effectively - since about 2000) national party that's "very conservative"...))))

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I pred a D +4 Environment in both Midterms and Prez Eday that's the average 3.1 anyways but Ds need 4 seats to win control of the S


Targets IA, ME, OH, NC in 26 and 51 St seat WI in 28