2 years out, what's your realistic range of national environments?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Like if you were shown the 2026 results today, the national environment wouldn't shock you.

My range would probably be R+4 to D+14 - this might seem large but these past 4 years we've just seen so many unexpected things occur and things that buck conventional wisdom like 2022 not being much of a wave only for Rs to gain a federal trifecta in 2024 despite relatively ok national circumstances. This range almost certainly narrow as the 2026 midterms approach.

R+4 - The bad to come in Trump's term is overhyped, his administration remains more popular than many expect, and Republicans are successful at getting their base out. On the flip side, a decent number on the Democratic side have just become disillusioned and the party struggles to redefine itself so Dem turnout is (relatively) poor. The reason I struggle to see a national meaningfully worse than this is because it's clear Dems that have become the higher propensity base in these off elections.

D+14 - Trump's term is largely seen as a disaster - perhaps Trump's tariff's raise prices, perhaps another crisis occurs that he mismanages, ect. Democrats have high turnout and good persuasion while Republicans struggle to get their "Trump only voters" out. Additionally, many Republican candidates are put in a difficult bind where they either have to support an unpopular administration or risk alienating MAGA voters. I struggle to see a national environment much bluer than this because D+14 is already a lot and if these past 8 years has shown us anything, it's that there's a sizeable chunk of the population that will stand by Trump no matter what - even if things get mad expect them to create a counter-narrative of "woke corporations" or something.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe something like 2020 or 2018 again, D+4 to D+8 or so.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

R+5 to D+10.

I honestly believe partisanship is high enough that a win of more than 10 is impossible. The Democrats won the house by that in 2008, but they still had blue dogs then that could win rural seats and partisanship  has only increased since then.

 

[smoltchanov]

R+3 to D+8

[Pericles]

I'd be surprised if it was outside of the D+5%-D+10% range, though at the edges you can tweak the criteria to say it was a stronger or weaker environment.

[windjammer]

One thing that is quite clear to me it is that ticket splitting is very much alive. Brown losing by only 4, Osborn by 6 while it was a republican Victory says something

[Dave Hedgehog]

One thing that is quite clear to me it is that ticket splitting is very much alive. Brown losing by only 4, Osborn by 6 while it was a republican Victory says something

I don’t think Brown’s performance was all that impressive as Moreno was widely considered to be the weakest challenger and is clearly a carpetbagger and opportunist to boot (hated Trump to start with then decided he was his #1 fan after seeing his statewide performances).  Had Brown faced someone like LaRose or Dolan I think the outcome in that race would have been similar to 2020-PRES. Sad but Ohio just seems to have become extremely inelastic in all races now; Brown was only able to replicate the Ryan map despite his incumbency and universal name recognition and didn’t even match him in vote percentage.

I think Tester’s overperformance was more impressive; delta between his and Brown’s margin of defeat was strikingly small in the end (only 3.5 points). Prior to the election I was honestly getting the vibe Tester would go down by double digits while Brown might just cling on.

[Atlas Force]

I'd be surprised if it was outside of the D+5%-D+10% range, though at the edges you can tweak the criteria to say it was a stronger or weaker environment.

For comparison’s sake, in 2014 Republicans won the House popular vote by 5.7

[CityofSinners]

The ranges in this thread feel too wide. Especially if you predict the national environment to get better for republicans in 2026.

The only time that happened in the last generation was 2002. Another 9/11 would play out very differently in todays world.

The shift in national enviroments since 2016 have been quite normal. 2018 was the usual midterm backlash aided by republicans making mistakes. 2022, which was a 6 point swing away from democrats was similar. Normal swing impacted by republicans making unnecessary mistakes.


2020 and 2024 were both examples of parties getting dragged down by unpopular incumbents.

Even if Trump does everything right, we should still see a 5 point swing towards democrats.

[Orser67]

At a high point for Republicans, maybe something like R+2. 2002 was about R+5, but I just don't think it's possible for that kind of widespread rally-around-the-flag event to take place anymore.

At a low point for Republicans, honestly something crazy like D+15 might be on the table if the economy tanks 2008-style, and Democrats effectively blame Trump/Republicans for it. We haven't really had a major recession hit right before a mid-term in a while (e.g. the Great Recession hit right before a presidential election), but if you go back to 1974 and 1958, the results were pretty lopsided even compared to the normal Democratic lean of the era. Obviously 1958 and especially 1974 also had other factors that impacted the result.

But more plausibly, I think probably somewhere between D+1 to D+10

[ProgressiveModerate]

The ranges in this thread feel too wide. Especially if you predict the national environment to get better for republicans in 2026.

The only time that happened in the last generation was 2002. Another 9/11 would play out very differently in todays world.

The shift in national enviroments since 2016 have been quite normal. 2018 was the usual midterm backlash aided by republicans making mistakes. 2022, which was a 6 point swing away from democrats was similar. Normal swing impacted by republicans making unnecessary mistakes.


2020 and 2024 were both examples of parties getting dragged down by unpopular incumbents.

Even if Trump does everything right, we should still see a 5 point swing towards democrats.

For me it just feels like so many "rules" have been broken these past few cycles I wouldn't be shocked if it happens again in 2026.

[here2view]

R+4 to D+10

Median environment is D+3 and they gain the House.

[Compuzled_One]

R+2 to D+9.

[EastOfEden]

R+3 to D+9.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There is no way Rs keep the H in 26 and it depends on the recruits in the S if Sand, Ryan, Mills and Nickel run we can flip the S

Ds are conceding FL and we have no idea if Kemp or Gutierrez runs in TX or GA but GA is a run off

I am not holding my breath for Cooper to run


It will still be about 5 percent unemployment with no recessions but we have this layoffs, I was subject to. It's not 4 anymore it's more like 5 percent unemployment

[YE]

R+3 to D+11. Most likely scenario is probably D+5 or 6 so similar or slightly worse than 2016.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

R+2 to D+11, but I’d agree that D+5-10 is significantly more likely than the more Republican end of the range.

[windjammer]

Honestly I genuinely believe it will be relatively easy to win in ME and NC (Collins is unpopular!!!).

After that I Guess OH is possible.


But the 4th pick up is going to be very difficult to find. IA maybe?

[Samof94]

My range would almost certain be D-leaning.
D+3-4(Biden 2020 environment) is the low end. The high end might be low double digits.

[GAinDC]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

[Mr. Smith]

R+2 - D+9

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

R+2 - D+9

Yeah right, there is no way Rs win the H in 26

[EastOfEden]

What were 2018 and 2022, for reference

D+8 and R+2.

2016 was D+2, 2020 was D+4, 2024 looks to be about R+2.

[CentristRepublican]

R+<1 to D+9.

[oldtimer]

We don't really know.

2018 and 2020 where really easy to guess since there was a lot of 3rd party vote in the 2016 Presidential election and the tradition in the post 1994 period of Congressional Republicans doing  better than the Presidential top line.

Now there was no 3rd party presidential vote at all, and the GOP did worse in Congress than the Presidency for the first time in more than 30 years.