The Redraw Game

[CentristRepublican]

https://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/

What's the minimum number of county shifts needed to flip the EC to Harris? It's pretty intuitive, and of course there's a number of different ways one can tip the race to Harris - the real question is just how few counties are flipped in the process.

The sketch I tried so far involved flipping 8 counties, but I'm sure others can beat that. Wondering what the smallest # someone can get to is.

For reference, here are the 8 counties I shifted to give Harris 271 EV's:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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To flip WI:
Lake, IL ---> WI

To flip PA:
York, PA ---> MD
Lancaster, PA ---> MD
Mercer, NJ ---> PA

To flip GA:
Carroll, GA ---> AL
Bartow, GA ---> AL
Paulding, GA ---> AL
Cherokee, GA ---> AL

Funnily enough, in spite of its six point margin, AZ can be comfortably flipped to Harris by moving just two counties (Imperial and San Diego) over from CA. I initially had it in my sketch but then realized it wasn't needed for Harris to get to 270 since she needed to flip one more state regardless.

To determine the "winner" of this, if multiple ppl have the same # of county flips and nobody has less than that, then whichever combo gives Harris the most EV's may be deemed the winner.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's actually somewhat tricky this year. 2020 was very easy due to how narrow Biden's margin was in the tipping points, and the Dem counties located on the edge of the states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I did 7:

Lake, IL --> WI (flips WI)

Baltimore County & City, MD --> PA (flips PA, there are a bunch of ways to flip PA by moving 2 counties but pretty so no way to flip it with just one)

San Diego + Imperial, CA --> AZ (flips AZ)

But this is just short, so:

Clark, NV --> AZ and El Paso, TX --> NM gets Harris to the 270 EVs she needs by giving these blue states more EVs. 270-268 win.

[CentristRepublican]

Looking at the last few elections, too...

2020 is literally just three, with idk how many different combinations (I personally flipped Navajo, AZ to NM; Nassau, FL to GA; Philadelphia, PA to NJ).

2016 is also just three - one for each of the Midwest Trio (Lucas, OH to MI; Lake, IL to WI; York, PA to NJ).

2012 is what makes me think 2024 can probably be done with quite a bit less than 8 - 2012 (in spite of Obama winning a whopping 332 EVs) is flippable with (at most) six changes: Baldwin, AL to FL; Leon, FL to GA; Clark, NV to AZ; Philadelphia to NJ; and Lake and Cook, IL, to WI.

2008 is probably just too much of a headache.

[CentristRepublican]

It's actually somewhat tricky this year. 2020 was very easy due to how narrow Biden's margin was in the tipping points, and the Dem counties located on the edge of the states.

2016 and 2020 are both extremely trivial bc it all comes down to three razor-thin states in both cases.

I did 7:

Lake, IL --> WI (flips WI)

Baltimore County & City, MD --> PA (flips PA, there are a bunch of ways to flip PA by moving 2 counties but pretty so no way to flip it with just one)

San Diego + Imperial, CA --> AZ (flips AZ)

But this is just short, so:

Clark, NV --> AZ and El Paso, TX --> NM gets Harris to the 270 EVs she needs by giving these blue states more EVs. 270-268 win.

This really came in clutch didn't it

Initially when I was eyeballing AZ I was disappointed cuz I thought the margin was basically insurmountable...and even SB County went red...then I realized that SD was just an Imperial County away.

Didn't end up using it because in my combo even flipping AZ left Harris just slightly short and I didn't think of increasing NM's clout with El Paso...so instead I just tried turning GA blue.

[E-Dawg]

Here's a map where Clinton wins 2016 and Trump wins 2020, with only 8 counties moved:


2016 Map

2020 Map

Moves:
Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okalossa FL ---> AL
Nassau, FL ---> GA
Phillidelphia, PA ---> NJ
Lucas, OH  ---> MI
Washington, OR  ---> WA
Multnomah, OR ---> WA

I'd try to do a Trump 2020/Harris 2024 map, but that would be very difficult.

[CentristRepublican]

Here's a map where Clinton wins 2016 and Trump wins 2020, with only 8 counties moved:
2016 Map

2020 Map

Moves:
Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okalossa FL ---> AL
Nassau, FL ---> GA
Phillidelphia, PA ---> NJ
Lucas, OH  ---> MI
Washington, OR  ---> WA
Multnomah, OR ---> WA

I'd try to do a Trump 2020/Harris 2024 map, but that would be very difficult.

I believe that'd be borderline if not outright impossible, given how universal the rightward swing was.

[riverwalk7]

If Georgia was 4k closer then I would have a way to get 6, Floyd + Cherokee + Bartow is just not enough to flip it.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Lake from IL to WI; Los Angeles and Alameda from CA to TX.

[Pericles]

Alternative eight county combination. Howard, Montgomery and Loudoun to West Virginia. Mercer and Camden to Pennsylvania. Lake to Wisconsin. Imperial and San Diego to Arizona.

270-268.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Instructions unclear, decided to see how many counties I could put into the same state to make it tilt the EC all the way over on its own. Behold, the Georgiapus:

[E-Dawg]

I did it. I made a map that went Clinton 2016, Trump 2020, and Harris 2024. Enjoy!



2016 Map

2020 Map

2024 Map

First I moved most of Georgia's counties to Florida. The only Georgia counties that remained were a scattering in the Atlanta metro area where due to the pro-Harris swings in 2024, I was able to make a 5 electoral vote mini-Georgia that voted Trump 2016/Trump 2020/Harris 2024. I then removed a chunk of the Florida panhandle away from Florida and added it to Alabama.  This made a 38 (40 in 2024) electoral vote mega-Florida (consisting of Florida minus most of the panhandle and plus most of Georgia) which voted Clinton 2016/Trump 2020/Trump 2024. I then altered the other swing states (plus Delaware) to make it so that mini-Georgia & mega-Florida were the only states that flipped between any of the 3 elections.

I made the electoral college outside of mini-Georgia & mega-Florida close enough so that mega-Florida going blue in 2016 gave Clinton 2016, mega-Florida & mini-Georgia both going red in 2020 gave Trump 2020, & mini-Georgia going blue in 2024 gave Harris 2024.

Also, this can easily be turned into a Trump 2016/Trump 2020/Harris 2024 map by giving Florida its panhandle back.

[Sic Semper Tyrannis]

I managed with 7 in a slightly different way

Wisconsin gets Lake county

Pennsylvania gets Cuyahoga, Lake, and Ashtabula Counties

AZ gets San Diego, Imperial, and Clark

My approach to flipping PA requires an extra county, but the EV gains from it make moving El Paso, TX unnecessary.

[New World Man]

The Bears headquarters is in Lake County(Lake Forest). Bulls is in Deerfield.

[CentristRepublican]

Lake from IL to WI; Los Angeles and Alameda from CA to TX.

Must be contiguous, otherwise this is too easy.

[CentristRepublican]

I did it. I made a map that went Clinton 2016, Trump 2020, and Harris 2024. Enjoy!

Given your masterful work on this - I figured it'd be borderline impossible - do you think it's also possible to make a Kerry-McCain, McCain-Obama, or Romney-Clinton map?

[CentristRepublican]

I did it. I made a map that went Clinton 2016, Trump 2020, and Harris 2024. Enjoy!

Given your masterful work on this - I figured it'd be borderline impossible - do you think it's also possible to make a Kerry-McCain, McCain-Obama, or Romney-Clinton map?

Took about 20 minutes, and I'm sure there's a neater way of doing it, but I created Romney-Clinton America.

Romney won 274-264; Clinton won 304-234.

2012
2016

Here are the changes I made:

- I made UT a Romney-Clinton state by throwing in Clark, NV, as well as SB and Riverside from CA
 - Byproduct of this was making NV a Romney-Trump state
- Created a Mini AZ that voted Romney-Clinton by taking out conservative counties in western AZ (including Maricopa) and moving them to CA
- I made WI an Obama-Clinton state by throwing in Lake, IL; I also turned MN into a Romney-Trump state by moving some Twin Cities counties over the border to WI
- Although in hindsight this wasn't necessary (Clinton won by more than enough), making MI an Obama-Clinton state only involved throwing in Lucas, OH
- Moving Ashtabula+Lake+Cuyahoga from OH to PA killed two birds with one stone; it took two EV-heavy Obama-Trump states and turned them into Romney-Trump and Obama-Clinton, respectively
- Moved some NOVA counties from VA to MD to make VA a Romney-Trump state
 - Byproduct of this was making DC an enclave of MD
- Killed two more birds with one stone by moving heavily conservative Atlanta suburbs from GA to AL and then throwing in a bunch of coastal FL counties + Leon to GA --- these changes flipped FL red in 2012 and GA blue in 2016, thus taking an Obama-Trump and Romney-Trump pair of states and turning them into Romney-Trump and Romney-Clinton, respectively

[Steve from Lambeth]

The most geographically elegant Harris 2024 map requires moving eight counties for a 272-266 win:

• Lake County, IL, to Wisconsin
• Lucas, Ottawa, Erie, Monroe and Cuyahoga Counties, OH, to Michigan
• Camden and Mercer Counties, NJ, to Pennsylvania

With seven counties to get 270-268: WI and PA as before; plus Floyd, Bartow, Cherokee, and Forsyth Counties, GA, to Alabama.

Pennsylvania is decided by thirty votes

[Goldwater]

- I made UT a Romney-Clinton state by throwing in Clark, NV, as well as SB and Riverside from CA

Unless I'm missing something, doesn't this make your new UT non-contiguous?

[CentristRepublican]

- I made UT a Romney-Clinton state by throwing in Clark, NV, as well as SB and Riverside from CA

Unless I'm missing something, doesn't this make your new UT non-contiguous?

Didn't bother mentioning but I also threw in Lincoln, NV, to keep it just about contiguous.

Seems like I also somehow omitted to include my 2016 map and forgot to add Lincoln, NV, to my 2012 UT, so this is weird.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Flipped 10 and kept it contiguous.

https://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/?year=2024&share=67ab15c75d12ec23ec21e64f8g3hi67j159k4l44m102n92o99p105q120r64s16t24u14v29wJ7wJ7w2J10wJ25w87x82y115z56A93B17C10D21E33F62G100H53I88J77K36L27Mu7Mu30Mu5N46O66P95Q254R29S14T133U39V55W72X23Y

[E-Dawg]

Any idea when the 2024 map will be updated?

[CentristRepublican]

Flipped 10 and kept it contiguous.

https://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/?year=2024&share=67ab15c75d12ec23ec21e64f8g3hi67j159k4l44m102n92o99p105q120r64s16t24u14v29wJ7wJ7w2J10wJ25w87x82y115z56A93B17C10D21E33F62G100H53I88J77K36L27Mu7Mu30Mu5N46O66P95Q254R29S14T133U39V55W72X23Y

The new Ohio has...um...interesting borders.

Any idea when the 2024 map will be updated?

None whatsoever.