Will Brian Kemp run for Senate, and will he win?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossorf won because of:

1, GA run-off rule, otherwise he lost in 2020;

2, Trump's election denialism depressed R turnout, otherwise he would lose in 2021;

3, He run along with Warnock, who is a very strong candidate that turned out the blacks, other wise he would lose in 2021.

He is the most lucky Senator since 2016. I cannot say anything which support that he is better than a generic Dem. Instead, his voting record in a toss-up state indicates that he would be below average.


FL voted for Trump by 1.2 in 2016. Nelson was a much stronger long-term incumbent.

GA voted for Trump by 2.2 in 2024. Kemp is a more competent and popular governor than Scott. He has very strong appeal in traditionally R suburbs who dislike Trump.

Unless Trump really mess-up the economic, I don't expect 2026 to be more than D+9. Hence I think Kemp would be favored against Ossorf.

I think Kemp would struggle if the national environment was D+9 but that’s the high end of what’s possible and I don’t think it will go there. But otherwise I completely agree. Ossoff got elected by total luck and nothing about his record indicates that he is a strong incumbent. If Kemp runs this is at least Tilt R or maybe Lean R.

[GAinDC]

Do we even know if Kemp is interested in running?

If he has presidential ambitions, he probably shouldn’t. If he wins in 2026, he’ll immediately have to start mounting a presidential campaign. And if he loses, then he becomes damaged goods.

[GAinDC]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

[GALeftist]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Even in 2024, obviously Trump won, but it's not like this was a Texas situation. The state was 0.7 points right of the nation.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Even in 2024, obviously Trump won, but it's not like this was a Texas situation. The state was 0.7 points right of the nation.

People need to understand that using the trends is misleading. The country overall moved only like 3pts right or so, except for that hispanic swings. Trump got like 20-30 pt swings with hispanics in CA, TX, FL, NY, and NJ which made the country look like it swung significantly right and skewed the PV-EC gap quite a bit. Harris still lost ground in rural Georgia, and the Atlanta metro was a net wash in terms of net votes despite all that growth.

[UncleSam]

This starts at Toss-Up but my guess is it’ll be Tilt / Lean D by Election Day. Two years is a long time for Trump to remind people why he was so unpopular the first time around.

[YE]

One other thing to consider: What if McBeth runs for governor, and both the Senate and Governor races go to a runoff and we see elevated Black turnout like the last 2 runoffs?

I could see Georgia voting the left of the nation in 2026 if not 2028 tbh but I wouldn’t expect in a hypothetical blue wave because Georgia is pretty inelastic. The question is if Kemp can overcome it.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

All this forum talks about Kemp he hasn't said he's interested

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Yes/Lean No unless Ossoff runs a sluggish campaign.

[GAinDC]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

I’m not even arguing a lot of what you’re saying. But I think 2026 could be so bad for R’s that even Kemp won’t be able to overcome such strong headwinds. And if GA’s trends continue, Kemp may not be able to win in 2 years even if it’s not a horrible cycle for R’s. The votes may just not be there for him without the amazing Republican turnout that Trump can get.

In 4 years, GA went from 4 points right of the nation to less than 1 point to the right of the nation. If there was ever a cycle where Dems could break through in a big way, it’ll be this upcoming one.

Why are you so committed to declaring Ossoff DOE against Kemp before the campaign has even begun? Why be so defeatist toward your own party? I just don’t get it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will he run? 50/50, I would say. Will he win? Unsure. Could end up as a VA 2014 redux, as it has been suggested before.

I assume Ossoff is secretly breathing a sigh of relief that Harris lost election.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

I’m not even arguing a lot of what you’re saying. But I think 2026 could be so bad for R’s that even Kemp won’t be able to overcome such strong headwinds. And if GA’s trends continue, Kemp may not be able to win in 2 years even if it’s not a horrible cycle for R’s. The votes may just not be there for him without the amazing Republican turnout that Trump can get.

In 4 years, GA went from 4 points right of the nation to less than 1 point to the right of the nation. If there was ever a cycle where Dems could break through in a big way, it’ll be this upcoming one.

Why are you so committed to declaring Ossoff DOE against Kemp before the campaign has even begun? Why be so defeatist toward your own party? I just don’t get it.

I’ve never declared Ossoff DOA (is that what you meant). I’ve said over and over that I think Kemp is favored. That’s not the same thing as Ossoff being DOA. “Lean R” does not mean a Dem cannot win! That’s a competitive race, albeit with a clear favorite. As for being “defeatist towards my own party”, well, I try to do objective analysis here, not be a hack.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's only been <4 weeks and god this race is going to have the most toxic discourse of any Senate race in decades.

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Congressman Buddy Carter of Savannah said he might be interested, though he'll defer to Kemp.

https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/buddy-carter-georgia-senate-contender-2026/

I imagine just about every Republican in the state (except maybe MTG) feels the same way.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Congressman Buddy Carter of Savannah said he might be interested, though he'll defer to Kemp.

https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/buddy-carter-georgia-senate-contender-2026/

I imagine just about every Republican in the state (except maybe MTG) feels the same way.

2028 will likely be the first truly wide open race for a GA-SEN GOP primary in ages. There probably won’t be any obvious field clearers like Kemp  in 2026 and Walker in 2022

[2016]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

I’m not even arguing a lot of what you’re saying. But I think 2026 could be so bad for R’s that even Kemp won’t be able to overcome such strong headwinds. And if GA’s trends continue, Kemp may not be able to win in 2 years even if it’s not a horrible cycle for R’s. The votes may just not be there for him without the amazing Republican turnout that Trump can get.

In 4 years, GA went from 4 points right of the nation to less than 1 point to the right of the nation. If there was ever a cycle where Dems could break through in a big way, it’ll be this upcoming one.

Why are you so committed to declaring Ossoff DOE against Kemp before the campaign has even begun? Why be so defeatist toward your own party? I just don’t get it.

This is absolute nonsense! Users like GAinDC are still clinging to fantasyland of a Wave Election. There won't be a Democratic Wave in 2026 in either the House or the Senate. WAVE Elections are IMO over.

While Trump won every Battleground State this year the Battle for Congress has been close for the last several Election Cycles especially during or since COVID.

When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2020 D's ended up with a 222-213 House and a 50/50 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2022 R's ended up with a 222-213 House and D's with a 51/49 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress are in in 2024 R's will end up with a 220-215 House and a 53-47 Senate.

While on the Presidential Level you might consider 2024 a Wave since Trump won every Battleground in the Elections for House and Senate there wasn't a wave at all. R's picked up 3 Seats they were supposed to pick up with WV, OH, MT and added PA. And in the House the D's will have 9 Pick Ups and the R's 8 Pick Ups. That's only 17 Seats that switched hands from either from R to D or D to R.

Kemp starts at Toss Up/Tilt R IMO if he runs against Ossoff.

[GALeftist]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Even in 2024, obviously Trump won, but it's not like this was a Texas situation. The state was 0.7 points right of the nation.

People need to understand that using the trends is misleading. The country overall moved only like 3pts right or so, except for that hispanic swings. Trump got like 20-30 pt swings with hispanics in CA, TX, FL, NY, and NJ which made the country look like it swung significantly right and skewed the PV-EC gap quite a bit. Harris still lost ground in rural Georgia, and the Atlanta metro was a net wash in terms of net votes despite all that growth.

It is very funny that Republicans seem to believe both that huge swings in NY/NJ/FL/TX are indicative of long-term permanent trends but also that very small swings in swing states signify nothing, but OK, fine.Trump won Georgia by 2. That is not an insurmountable margin by any means whatsoever, and in the same way that Georgia swung right in 2024 after swinging left in 2016 and 2020, there is no guarantee that it will swing right further; indeed, it seems hard to believe that all states will continue to swing right forever.

Also, net votes is a totally useless metric. Have no idea how or why this became in vogue in conservative circles.

[UWS]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

I’m not even arguing a lot of what you’re saying. But I think 2026 could be so bad for R’s that even Kemp won’t be able to overcome such strong headwinds. And if GA’s trends continue, Kemp may not be able to win in 2 years even if it’s not a horrible cycle for R’s. The votes may just not be there for him without the amazing Republican turnout that Trump can get.

In 4 years, GA went from 4 points right of the nation to less than 1 point to the right of the nation. If there was ever a cycle where Dems could break through in a big way, it’ll be this upcoming one.

Why are you so committed to declaring Ossoff DOE against Kemp before the campaign has even begun? Why be so defeatist toward your own party? I just don’t get it.

This is absolute nonsense! Users like GAinDC are still clinging to fantasyland of a Wave Election. There won't be a Democratic Wave in 2026 in either the House or the Senate. WAVE Elections are IMO over.

While Trump won every Battleground State this year the Battle for Congress has been close for the last several Election Cycles especially during or since COVID.

When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2020 D's ended up with a 222-213 House and a 50/50 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2022 R's ended up with a 222-213 House and D's with a 51/49 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress are in in 2024 R's will end up with a 220-215 House and a 53-47 Senate.

While on the Presidential Level you might consider 2024 a Wave since Trump won every Battleground in the Elections for House and Senate there wasn't a wave at all. R's picked up 3 Seats they were supposed to pick up with WV, OH, MT and added PA. And in the House the D's will have 9 Pick Ups and the R's 8 Pick Ups. That's only 17 Seats that switched hands from either from R to D or D to R.

Kemp starts at Toss Up/Tilt R IMO if he runs against Ossoff.

Kemp has at least 60 % approval as Governor which makes him the best candidate for the seat; Kemp outperformed Trump in 2022 which shows his cross party appeal and he won 43 per cent of GA Latinos who now compose 8 per cent of GA electorate while Senator Jon Ossoff has voted to block the arm sale to Israel along with Bernie Sanders and in this time of high inflation where Congress will vote to make the Trump tax cuts permanent Kemp will likely say one of his predecessors Zell Miller, a Democrat, was tax-cut Governor as Miller has eliminated the marriage penalty and cut taxes by $334 million reducing GA’s unemployment rate to 3.5 percent under Miller’s governorship and because Kemp cut taxes the state unemployment rate is reduced from 6.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent today but today Dems are not the party of JFK

[Spectator]

What really irks me is that according to some people on here, every Dem win in GA has an asterisk next to it.

Biden squeaked by in 2020 because Trump was unpopular *

Ossoff and Warnock won in 2021 because of suppressed R turnout *

Warnock won in 2022 because Herschel Walker was a terrible candidate *

When can we start admitting that maybe these guys won on their own merit and GA is just getting harder for Republicans to win?

Warnock is a strong incumbent and he didn’t win in 2022 only because Walker was disastrously bad. That certainly helped though. He would have also won without the runoff in 2020.

GA is definitely getting harder for Republicans to win but the fact is that we still have no examples of Ds winning against Generic Rs. Exception is Ossoff against Purdue in 2021 but as mentioned earlier he would have lost if not for the runoff, and would have lost the runoff in normal circumstances. So yeah, when I see an above-average R running against someone who is generic D at best, and likely worse, I’m going to say the R is favored. That doesn’t mean Ossoff is doomed- the environment and demographic change are on his side- just that I think Kemp is the favorite.

The argument that Ossoff is favored seems to be “muh trends will make GA unwinnable for Republicans”. Yes, that will eventually happen. But GA is a Republican-leaning state right now. It voted right of the nation, all its state level elected officials (you know, the Generic Rs) are Republicans- this is a state where the Republican is just more likely to win. Deal with it.

I’m not even arguing a lot of what you’re saying. But I think 2026 could be so bad for R’s that even Kemp won’t be able to overcome such strong headwinds. And if GA’s trends continue, Kemp may not be able to win in 2 years even if it’s not a horrible cycle for R’s. The votes may just not be there for him without the amazing Republican turnout that Trump can get.

In 4 years, GA went from 4 points right of the nation to less than 1 point to the right of the nation. If there was ever a cycle where Dems could break through in a big way, it’ll be this upcoming one.

Why are you so committed to declaring Ossoff DOE against Kemp before the campaign has even begun? Why be so defeatist toward your own party? I just don’t get it.

This is absolute nonsense! Users like GAinDC are still clinging to fantasyland of a Wave Election. There won't be a Democratic Wave in 2026 in either the House or the Senate. WAVE Elections are IMO over.

While Trump won every Battleground State this year the Battle for Congress has been close for the last several Election Cycles especially during or since COVID.

When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2020 D's ended up with a 222-213 House and a 50/50 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress were counted in 2022 R's ended up with a 222-213 House and D's with a 51/49 Senate.
When all the Votes for Congress are in in 2024 R's will end up with a 220-215 House and a 53-47 Senate.

While on the Presidential Level you might consider 2024 a Wave since Trump won every Battleground in the Elections for House and Senate there wasn't a wave at all. R's picked up 3 Seats they were supposed to pick up with WV, OH, MT and added PA. And in the House the D's will have 9 Pick Ups and the R's 8 Pick Ups. That's only 17 Seats that switched hands from either from R to D or D to R.

Kemp starts at Toss Up/Tilt R IMO if he runs against Ossoff.

Kemp has at least 60 % approval as Governor which makes him the best candidate for the seat; Kemp outperformed Trump in 2022 which shows his cross party appeal and he won 43 per cent of GA Latinos who know compose 8 per cent of GA electorate while Senator Jon Ossoff has voted to block the arm sale to Israel along with Bernie Sanders and in this time of high inflation where Congress will vote to make the Trump tax cuts permanent Kemp will likely say one of his predecessors Zell Miller, a Democrat, was tax-cut Governor as Miller has eliminated the marriage penalty and cut taxes by $334 million reducing GA’s unemployment rate to 3.5 percent under Miller’s governorship and because Kemp cut taxes the state unemployment rate is reduced from 6.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent today but today Dems are not the party of JFK

Punctuation goes a long way, just FYI

[GeorgiaModerate]

Punctuation goes a long way, just FYI

Indeed:

Watch all the way to the end!

[Del Tachi]

Do we even know if Kemp is interested in running?

Yeah, take it from me, I don't think he wants it y'all. His name gets trafficked by national campaign consultant types because they think he's their best chance for a pickup, but Kemp has done nothing to indicate to his core supporters that he has any interest in going to D.C.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Do we even know if Kemp is interested in running?

Yeah, take it from me, I don't think he wants it y'all. His name gets trafficked by national campaign consultant types because they think he's their best chance for a pickup, but Kemp has done nothing to indicate to his core supporters that he has any interest in going to D.C.

Similar to Sununu. Everyone thought he was going to run against Hassan because national Republicans wishcasted it. Then everyone got mad at him when he announced he wasn't running, because turns out he never wanted to be in Congress all along.

Sometimes bullying someone into running for Senate works though - Steve Bullock in 2020 is an example.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Do we even know if Kemp is interested in running?

Yeah, take it from me, I don't think he wants it y'all. His name gets trafficked by national campaign consultant types because they think he's their best chance for a pickup, but Kemp has done nothing to indicate to his core supporters that he has any interest in going to D.C.

Similar to Sununu. Everyone thought he was going to run against Hassan because national Republicans wishcasted it. Then everyone got mad at him when he announced he wasn't running, because turns out he never wanted to be in Congress all along.

Sometimes bullying someone into running for Senate works though - Steve Bullock in 2020 is an example.

Sununu isn't the best comparison because he had the ability to just run for another term as governor. Kemp is termed out so if he wants to continue his career in politics he doesn't have a choice but to run. The primary is basically his if he wants it as well.

[MarkD]

Yes and yes is my extremely early guess. Could easily be wrong.

^^^
Me 2.