Will Brian Kemp run for Senate, and will he win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Brian Kemp run for Senate, and will he win?

[Spectator]

Yes and yes is my extremely early guess. Could easily be wrong.

[Samof94]

Yes and no. This is a midterm that is biased against Republicans. Not sure if he even wins the nomination.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

[Spectator]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

It’s moreso their approvals now, not their last performance. Both their approvals are in the mid-50s, which is well above whatever replacement candidate would be able to reproduce. That number would come down for both Cooper and Kemp, but they’d have the advantage all else equal. It’s why Rick Scott was seen as a formidable opponent in 2018 despite his past poor performances.

[Zedonathin2020]

There are either two paths for Kemp:

1. He runs for Senate, may or may not win/lose depending on national environment (which will more likely than not be D friendly)

2. Runs for President in 2028, loses the primary to Vance

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

[Spectator]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossoff is ridiculously overestimated on this forum. He’s an accidental/incidental senator. He can win, but it’d probably require a year as blue as 2018 to hold on against Kemp. Otherwise, he’s probably narrowly favored against anyone else, but still very much a tossup so long as they’re not Herschel Walker or MTG. Ossoff better hope that Kemp’s presidential delusions win out.

[GAinDC]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

[Spectator]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

Kemp needs zero Dems to win. The onus is on Ossoff in GA to persuade, not the other way around. Also not understanding any relevance of a comparison to Ann Richards? Not comparable at all. Georgia is not a blue state, so the analogy fails.

[GAinDC]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossoff is ridiculously overestimated on this forum. He’s an accidental/incidental senator. He can win, but it’d probably require a year as blue as 2018 to hold on against Kemp. Otherwise, he’s probably narrowly favored against anyone else, but still very much a tossup so long as they’re not Herschel Walker or MTG. Ossoff better hope that Kemp’s presidential delusions win out.

and I think Kemp is ridiculously overrated. Why is he a profile in courage just because he wouldn't incriminate himself to satisfy Trump's delusions?

[GAinDC]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

Kemp needs zero Dems to win. The onus is on Ossoff in GA to persuade, not the other way around. Also not understanding any relevance of a comparison to Ann Richards? Not comparable at all. Georgia is not a blue state, so the analogy fails.

GA is a 50/50 state in what could be a Dem leaning year, so yes, Kemp will need some crossover support from Dems

[Spectator]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

Kemp needs zero Dems to win. The onus is on Ossoff in GA to persuade, not the other way around. Also not understanding any relevance of a comparison to Ann Richards? Not comparable at all. Georgia is not a blue state, so the analogy fails.

GA is a 50/50 state in what could be a Dem leaning year, so yes, Kemp will need some crossover support from Dems

Dems have won four statewide races post-2016. GOP has won 20. Not very 50-50.

[GAinDC]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

Kemp needs zero Dems to win. The onus is on Ossoff in GA to persuade, not the other way around. Also not understanding any relevance of a comparison to Ann Richards? Not comparable at all. Georgia is not a blue state, so the analogy fails.

GA is a 50/50 state in what could be a Dem leaning year, so yes, Kemp will need some crossover support from Dems

Dems have won four statewide races post-2016. GOP has won 20. Not very 50-50.

Ok, so GA is a ruby red state, Ossoff is doomed and Kemp will win no matter what. Is that what you want me to say? lol

I just don’t believe it’ll be that easy for Kemp if it’s a tough year for R’s. Is that so controversial?

Also, how many senate races have Republicans won in GA since 2016?

[Spectator]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

it really depends on the national environment. Kemp can win if he can get enough support from independents and some Dems, but we have also seen cycles where broadly popular candidates who were great fits for their state/district lost simply because of the R or D next to their name.

Like, in 1994, Ann Richards was actually very popular and beloved, but she lost to Bush because it was such a wave year and the D brand was toxic

Kemp needs zero Dems to win. The onus is on Ossoff in GA to persuade, not the other way around. Also not understanding any relevance of a comparison to Ann Richards? Not comparable at all. Georgia is not a blue state, so the analogy fails.

GA is a 50/50 state in what could be a Dem leaning year, so yes, Kemp will need some crossover support from Dems

Dems have won four statewide races post-2016. GOP has won 20. Not very 50-50.

Ok, so GA is a ruby red state, Ossoff is doomed and Kemp will win no matter what. Is that what you want me to say? lol

I just don’t believe it’ll be that easy for Kemp if it’s a tough year for R’s. Is that so controversial?

Also, how many senate races have Republicans won in GA since 2016?

Not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying if Kemp decides to run, he's probably favored. You don't like the insinuation that Ossoff could be an underdog, as your post-Election Day posts and threads have suggested. Trends wouldn't save Ossoff from Kemp. Only a savage campaign in a very blue year would.

[Agafin]

Kemp probably runs and he's favored to win against Ossoff imo. Also I disagree with everyone here saying that he'll have any difficulty winning the primary. When's the last time a popular governor failed to win a senate primary? It's insanely rare. Even Hogan who was obviously way too liberal for the Maryland GOP still easily won his primary.

Edit: typo

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossoff is ridiculously overestimated on this forum. He’s an accidental/incidental senator. He can win, but it’d probably require a year as blue as 2018 to hold on against Kemp. Otherwise, he’s probably narrowly favored against anyone else, but still very much a tossup so long as they’re not Herschel Walker or MTG. Ossoff better hope that Kemp’s presidential delusions win out.

and I think Kemp is ridiculously overrated. Why is he a profile in courage just because he wouldn't incriminate himself to satisfy Trump's delusions?

Voters in Georgia have decided that Kemp is a "profile in courage", not posters on this forum. Personally I think it's silly to view him as anti-Trump just because he wouldn't steal the election- he's very conservative- but GA voters clearly felt otherwise in 2022. Posters have decided Ossoff is strong based on their own biases. These are not analogous situations.

[GAinDC]

anyway...

I think Ossoff is favored because he's a Dem incumbent in a Trump midterm. Kemp makes it really competitive, but I think a bluer year and GA's Dem trend win out and give Ossoff the edge.

Kemp has excelled in the chief executive role. Yet it's a big "if" on whether swing voters will want to send him to Washington where he would be one out of 100 and vote with Trump most of the time. Frankly, I'm not sure if Kemp would even like the job.

I know a lot of folks on here really like Kemp and think Ossoff is overrated, but you don't defeat an incumbent senator like Ossoff did because you're "overrated."

He's also done a lot of good work as senator. He has gotten some props in my Republican-leaning hometown by opening an investigation into missing packages at a local USPS facility. People care about that kind of stuff, and it may help him win over some folks on the other side.

[Spectator]

anyway...

I think Ossoff is favored because he's a Dem incumbent in a Trump midterm. Kemp makes it really competitive, but I think a bluer year and GA's Dem trend win out and give Ossoff the edge.

Kemp has excelled in the chief executive role. Yet it's a big "if" on whether swing voters will want to send him to Washington where he would be one out of 100 and vote with Trump most of the time. Frankly, I'm not sure if Kemp would even like the job.

I know a lot of folks on here really like Kemp and think Ossoff is overrated, but you don't defeat an incumbent senator like Ossoff did because you're "overrated."

He's also done a lot of good work as senator. He has gotten some props in my Republican-leaning hometown by opening an investigation into delays at a local USPS facility. People care about that kind of stuff, and it may help him win over some folks on the other side.

You realize this place is like 80% Dem leaners right? I think people are just objectively assessing the lay of the land at this incredibly early stage and not wishcasting.

[GAinDC]

anyway...

I think Ossoff is favored because he's a Dem incumbent in a Trump midterm. Kemp makes it really competitive, but I think a bluer year and GA's Dem trend win out and give Ossoff the edge.

Kemp has excelled in the chief executive role. Yet it's a big "if" on whether swing voters will want to send him to Washington where he would be one out of 100 and vote with Trump most of the time. Frankly, I'm not sure if Kemp would even like the job.

I know a lot of folks on here really like Kemp and think Ossoff is overrated, but you don't defeat an incumbent senator like Ossoff did because you're "overrated."

He's also done a lot of good work as senator. He has gotten some props in my Republican-leaning hometown by opening an investigation into delays at a local USPS facility. People care about that kind of stuff, and it may help him win over some folks on the other side.

You realize this place is like 80% Dem leaners right? I think people are just objectively assessing the lay of the land at this incredibly early stage and not wishcasting.

Sorry, I know how you and others feel but I just don't agree. It's ok if we disagree and I'll own up if I'm wrong

[David Hume]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossorf won because:

1, GA run-off rule, otherwise he lost in 2020;

2, Trump's election denialism depressed R turnout, otherwise he would lose in 2021;

3, He run along with Warnock, who is a very strong candidate that turned out the blacks, other wise he would lose in 2021.

He is the most lucky Senator since 2016. I cannot see anything which support that he is better than a generic Dem. Instead, his voting record in a toss-up state indicates that he would be below average.


FL voted for Trump by 1.2 in 2016. Nelson was a much stronger long-term incumbent.

GA voted for Trump by 2.2 in 2024. Kemp is a more competent and popular governor than Scott. He has very strong appeal in traditionally R suburbs who dislike Trump.

Unless Trump really mess-up the economy, I don't expect 2026 to be more than D+9. Hence I think Kemp would be favored against Ossorf.

[YE]

Do we even know if Kemp is interested in running?

[Tekken_Guy]

Running for Senate makes sense - he's not that old, has a proven electoral track record, and it's probably the clearest opportunity.

As if he'd actually win. I'll say lean no overall. First, he'd had to get past a primary which I don't think is a given, and then he'd have to win a general election in a year that has a good chance of being Dem-friendly in a state where Demographics are consistently getting worse for Republicans. Also most of the time these days when a Governor runs for Senate, they lose a decent amount of their crossover support. Also Ossoff seems like a decent incumbent.

Kemp doesn’t need a lot of crossover support to win though. In states like TN and MD, we’ve seen that popular governors do overperform relative to partisanship, it’s just that they can’t overcome the states’ partisan leans. GA is pretty evenly split state. Kemp only needs to keep a little bit of his suburban performance in 2022 to eke out a win. I don’t think Ossoff is such a strong incumbent and his anti-Israel stance will alienate people, even if it’s not a huge factor. GA is not an elastic state so a D-leaning national environment shouldn’t be as harmful here and Kemp did manage to win in 2018. I think Kemp is favored in this race. But this could end up being another Cory Gardner situation in 6 years.

But Kemp never had as much crossover support as the Governors you mention. In 2022 he ran similarly to statewide Republicans who weren't named Herschel Walker. Also whatever you think about Ossoff, it's hard to argue (at least at this point) that he's a worse candidate than Abrams 2022.

It's the same reason I think people are a bit too bullish on Cooper's prospects - yes NC is a swing state and he overperformed in his past elections, but only by like 4%. If he runs, I could easily see him becoming a "normal Dem" with no meaningful overperformance.

This retconning of Abrams as a bad candidate is something that annoys me. And she definitely wasn't bad in 2018, when Kemp won in a D+8 year. You're changing your argument though. You said Kemp couldn't win because he would lose his crossover support. Now you say he never had any. Look, clearly Generic R runs better in GA than Trump or Trump-associated people. So even if a lot of that dries up in 2026 due to the political environment it takes very little for Kemp to win.

Ossoff is very overrated IMO. He's Generic D at best. He came in second in the runoff in 2020, the only reason he was even elected is GA's runoff rules. He's not at all moderate for a purple state. He doesn't have strong connections to GA's black community. Why exactly would he be a strong candidate, because he's young and good-looking?

I think Kemp and Cooper are both favored. We've seen multiple times over the past few cycles that candidate quality > national environment.

Ossorf won because of:

1, GA run-off rule, otherwise he lost in 2020;

2, Trump's election denialism depressed R turnout, otherwise he would lose in 2021;

3, He run along with Warnock, who is a very strong candidate that turned out the blacks, other wise he would lose in 2021.

He is the most lucky Senator since 2016. I cannot say anything which support that he is better than a generic Dem. Instead, his voting record in a toss-up state indicates that he would be below average.


FL voted for Trump by 1.2 in 2016. Nelson was a much stronger long-term incumbent.

GA voted for Trump by 2.2 in 2024. Kemp is a more competent and popular governor than Scott. He has very strong appeal in traditionally R suburbs who dislike Trump.

Unless Trump really mess-up the economic, I don't expect 2026 to be more than D+9. Hence I think Kemp would be favored against Ossorf.

Nelson was also extremely old and a very lazy campaigner in his 2018 run. And Georgia doesn't have rightward trends like Florida does.