2026 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

I completely agree, but if the Dems already have a lead with them—especially right now, at their lowest point, then that's a great start. The Republicans didn't take the lead on the 2022 generic ballot until 11 months after Biden's inauguration

[Roll Roons]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

Maybe that's true, but with 538 gone I don't know of any other aggregators tracking this.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

Maybe that's true, but with 538 gone I don't know of any other aggregators tracking this.

You’re better off with nothing than you are going by them

[GeorgiaModerate]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

Maybe that's true, but with 538 gone I don't know of any other aggregators tracking this.

VoteHub: https://polls.votehub.com/

[henster]

The focus on party favorability now is strange to me. I'm pretty sure the GOP's favorability was pretty bad in 2020 and definitely in 2008. The favorability numbers are clearly meaningless just looking at the GCB so why even pretend it matters?

[TML]

The focus on party favorability now is strange to me. I'm pretty sure the GOP's favorability was pretty bad in 2020 and definitely in 2008. The favorability numbers are clearly meaningless just looking at the GCB so why even pretend it matters?

If one particular party is above water in terms of favorability, that would be useful in increasing turnout in favor of that party. Having both parties underwater in terms of favorability could result in a low turnout election. (In terms of who benefits more from differing levels of turnout, there is no one-size-fits-all answer; it depends on which side is driving most of the turnout, as well as what demographic groups/geographic locations the turnout is mostly coming from).

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/juliamanch/status/1901605075484569931?s=46

[UncleSam]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

Maybe that's true, but with 538 gone I don't know of any other aggregators tracking this.

You’re better off with nothing than you are going by them

Objectively false, some data is better than no data.

It is reasonable to say that the GCB snapshot at this moment in time is useless. But comparing it to prior cycles and seeing where those cycles ended up allows for one to examine the relativity.

D+0.8 at this stage isn’t bad for a midterm cycle, and given past cycles it should go up as time goes on. Data is always useful, even if the singular data point is not.

[หมูเด้ง]

RCP’s generic ballot aggregate (only four polls so far) is currently D+0.8

RCP’s database is useless; they’re a far-right hack site that should be taken about as seriously as NewsMax or OAN

Maybe that's true, but with 538 gone I don't know of any other aggregators tracking this.

You’re better off with nothing than you are going by them

Objectively false, some data is better than no data.

It is reasonable to say that the GCB snapshot at this moment in time is useless. But comparing it to prior cycles and seeing where those cycles ended up allows for one to examine the relativity.

D+0.8 at this stage isn’t bad for a midterm cycle, and given past cycles it should go up as time goes on. Data is always useful, even if the singular data point is not.

And Republicans can hold their own or slightly overperform for a while only for things to go sideways pretty quickly. That's what happened against Obama twice. Then again, after 2004 and 2016, things were pretty much always bad for Republicans.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Rs arent gonna get any of these seats, how many times Dina Titis has been targeted

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/juliamanch/status/1901605075484569931?s=46

That's way too ambitious outside of a select few for what 2026 is going to be like. Makes me feel even more confident that Democrats easily flip the House.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/juliamanch/status/1901605075484569931?s=46

There are a few names who the NRCC did briefly test the waters against but decided not to move forward with. Costa, Ruiz, Gottheimer, Ryan, Bynum, to name a few.

Soto is the most surprising name here, though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If Rs are having trouble in OH they are having trouble in blue states. In 22 it was R 7 in May 22 according to McLaughlin polls, Ds are on the plus side of the GCB

[EastOfEden]

The focus on party favorability now is strange to me. I'm pretty sure the GOP's favorability was pretty bad in 2020 and definitely in 2008. The favorability numbers are clearly meaningless just looking at the GCB so why even pretend it matters?

Median voter: "I like people parties that weren't captured didn't lose."

[wbrocks67]

Certainly sounds like Stelson is running again, which would be a boost for Dems in PA-10

https://twitter.com/DemocraticWins/status/1902545084941218155

[Steve from Lambeth]

Here's the relevant part of my much-maligned effortpost from Scarlet's Contrasting Political Approaches thread:

Since we're talking about partisan converts, I would have supported Perry over Stetson in PA-10; he's infamous for backing up Trump after the 2020 election and he's a touch more interventionist on foreign policy than I'd like, but he's an increasingly mainline-MAGA Representative and - given how much everyone loves complaining about his unsuitability for this seat - the Democrats could have really done better than field a just-converted Republican who mostly ran as an anti-Perry candidate.

However... with that said, I think Stetson might have enough Democratic bona-fides by 2026 to pull it off. Still not endorsing her, though!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the relevant part of my much-maligned effortpost from Scarlet's Contrasting Political Approaches thread:

Since we're talking about partisan converts, I would have supported Perry over Stetson in PA-10; he's infamous for backing up Trump after the 2020 election and he's a touch more interventionist on foreign policy than I'd like, but he's an increasingly mainline-MAGA Representative and - given how much everyone loves complaining about his unsuitability for this seat - the Democrats could have really done better than field a just-converted Republican who mostly ran as an anti-Perry candidate.

However... with that said, I think Stetson might have enough Democratic bona-fides by 2026 to pull it off. Still not endorsing her, though!

Her name is Stelson, not Stetson.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Here's the relevant part of my much-maligned effortpost from Scarlet's Contrasting Political Approaches thread:

Since we're talking about partisan converts, I would have supported Perry over Stetson in PA-10; he's infamous for backing up Trump after the 2020 election and he's a touch more interventionist on foreign policy than I'd like, but he's an increasingly mainline-MAGA Representative and - given how much everyone loves complaining about his unsuitability for this seat - the Democrats could have really done better than field a just-converted Republican who mostly ran as an anti-Perry candidate.

However... with that said, I think Stetson might have enough Democratic bona-fides by 2026 to pull it off. Still not endorsing her, though!

Her name is Stelson, not Stetson.

The perils of only being a semi-casual follower of American politics...

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1902867653120888849

[Spectator]

We’ll probably see a lot of candidate announcements in early April as it’s the start of a new fundraising quarter. Especially for the candidates obviously lining up to run. Stevens, Rogers, McMorrow, Pappas, Lopez, Stelson. Cooper probably announces in Q3 after he’s done with the Harvard gig. Mills probably this summer as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

We’ll probably see a lot of candidate announcements in early April as it’s the start of a new fundraising quarter. Especially for the candidates obviously lining up to run. Stevens, Rogers, McMorrow, Pappas, Lopez, Stelson. Cooper probably announces in Q3 after he’s done with the Harvard gig. Mills probably this summer as well.

When would Kemp and Sununu announce?

[Spectator]

We’ll probably see a lot of candidate announcements in early April as it’s the start of a new fundraising quarter. Especially for the candidates obviously lining up to run. Stevens, Rogers, McMorrow, Pappas, Lopez, Stelson. Cooper probably announces in Q3 after he’s done with the Harvard gig. Mills probably this summer as well.

When would Kemp and Sununu announce?

Well I don’t think Sununu will run. He’s an attention whore. Kemp can afford to wait til after the November elections. I don’t know if he’ll run. I would’ve said he would if you asked a month ago. Similarly I think Laura Kelly will wait til later in the year or early next year to launch a run if it looks like a blue wave is forming and Kansas if is in play with her.

[Steve from Lambeth]

We’ll probably see a lot of candidate announcements in early April as it’s the start of a new fundraising quarter. Especially for the candidates obviously lining up to run. Stevens, Rogers, McMorrow, Pappas, Lopez, Stelson. Cooper probably announces in Q3 after he’s done with the Harvard gig. Mills probably this summer as well.

When would Kemp and Sununu announce?

Well I don’t think Sununu will run. He’s an attention whore. Kemp can afford to wait til after the November elections. I don’t know if he’ll run. I would’ve said he would if you asked a month ago. Similarly I think Laura Kelly will wait til later in the year or early next year to launch a run if it looks like a blue wave is forming and Kansas if is in play with her.

I read that as "attention whoriaa" and immediately had my mind jump to this viral banger:

https://twitter.com/vicwhoriaa/status/1898910569777995839

Alas, the New Hampshire GOP is neither loved nor considered.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1904159019775697401

[Gass3268]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ats4shmeia7i7ildqm3denmd/post/3ll4uhykpa22i