How did Toomey outperform Trump in Erie County in 2016?

[riverwalk7]

It seems like a place where downballot lag should have helped McGinty at the time.

[Averroës]

Erie County is Sestak country. Probably just didn't want to vote for an environmental consultant (married to another consultant, no less) from a Main Line suburb. What is the case for downballot lag helping her here?

[PALiberal]

Katie McGinty was a bad candidate, she was attacked for having ethics investigations when she worked for the state, and Pat Toomey was seen as a more of a moderate compared to Trump (btw LMAO)

[kwabbit]

Erie County is Sestak country. Probably just didn't want to vote for an environmental consultant (married to another consultant, no less) from a Main Line suburb. What is the case for downballot lag helping her here?

You would think the same thing about somewhere like Cambria County, home to the postindustrial steel town of Johnstown. Trump won by 37 points, Toomey by 24 points. In neighboring Blair County, home to the postindustrial railroad town of Altoona, Trump won by 45 points while Toomey won by 39 points. The difference between the two, why Toomey lagged behind more in Cambria County, is that Altoona was a historically Republican city while Johnstown was a historically Democratic city.

As for Erie, the difference is very likely due to Toomey investing in the Erie media market, which encompasses Erie, Crawford, and Warren Counties in Pennsylvania. Both of those counties also swung heavily to Trump but Toomey ran only a point or two behind.

[Averroës]

Erie County is Sestak country. Probably just didn't want to vote for an environmental consultant (married to another consultant, no less) from a Main Line suburb. What is the case for downballot lag helping her here?

You would think the same thing about somewhere like Cambria County, home to the postindustrial steel town of Johnstown. Trump won by 37 points, Toomey by 24 points. In neighboring Blair County, home to the postindustrial railroad town of Altoona, Trump won by 45 points while Toomey won by 39 points. The difference between the two, why Toomey lagged behind more in Cambria County, is that Altoona was a historically Republican city while Johnstown was a historically Democratic city.

As for Erie, the difference is very likely due to Toomey investing in the Erie media market, which encompasses Erie, Crawford, and Warren Counties in Pennsylvania. Both of those counties also swung heavily to Trump but Toomey ran only a point or two behind.

Thank you. I am still curious about the Sestak connection. Not only did he win Erie in the primary, it had been one of his strongest swings in the previous election. It makes me wonder if there was some underlying weakness there that Toomey was looking to exploit with his media buys.

[lfromnj]

Yeah it's usually media markets. For example Muskegon is ancestrally Dem but John James won it as Trump lost it in 2020.