Why did Metro ATL swing left?

[GAinDC]

This can't just be attributed to the growth of African Americans, though that might explain a lot of it. We also can't chalk it up to investment from the national party, because that didn't help in other swing state metros like Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Even the ruby red, super Republican and mostly white exurban areas north of the city like Forsyth, Cherokee, and Barrow counties shifted left a bit compared to 2020.

And while most of the core counties shifted a couple points right, not all of them did: Cobb County continued to shift leftward.

Meanwhile, nearly every metro county south of the city swung pretty noticeably towards Harris. Henry County, GA once again scored the biggest leftward swing in the entire country.

Metro ATL was certainly not immune from the nationwide swing towards Trump, but it was mostly blunted. Why?

[lfromnj]

South is literally African Americans , whites outside of Fayette county in the south suburbs aren’t even particularly high education  so it’s just massive demographic change .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah most of it is probably growth - combined with the fact that Dems invested heavily in the state meaning turnout didn't fall off as much of a cliff like in Dallas and Houston.

If you look at a precinct swing map, Trump did make modest gains in most of the parts of Metro Atlanta that are already built up, but there was just a massive ring of left-shifting precincts around the metro that are rapidly being suburbanized and becoming more diverse (especially black).

The other thing to consider is just that metro Atlanta has a much low Hispanic and Asian population than basically any other metro it's size . The rightwards Hispanic swing did show up in metro Atlanta with Gwinnett County shifting right for the first time since 2004.

[Sbane]

Another thing to consider is that with African Americans it was more or less a turnout issue for Democrats. Whereas Latinos and Asians swung hard to Trump along with turnout issues. This meant Las Vegas, Phoenix and other areas with more Asian and Latino voters swung to Trump. In Atlanta the turnout issues you saw in the north were compensated for by growth. Only the precincts at the edge of the metro area really swung towards Harris. Otherwise it was mostly a bunch of swings towards Trump in the more established areas.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think metro Atlanta actually did swing left. The southern suburban counties are just demographic turnover, as whites leave the area while blacks from Fulton/DeKalb move in. A black person voting in Covington counts the same as when they voted in College Park. The actual important area of the metro ATL area is North Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Cherokee, and Forsyth. Those are the dense and have seen the most inter-state migration. Trump actually improved in North Fulton (Milton), Gwinnett, and managed to fight Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee to a net-even swing.

Kamala got 70k more votes than Biden did in 2020 which insane, and if you told me that I would have said she wins the state. Trump asked Raffensperger for 11,780 more votes in 2020, turns out he got over 200k this time around which is completely crazy considering most of the growth in the state is in the Atlanta area.

[GAinDC]

I agree Trump got more voters than many expected in GA, but so did Harris

Trump benefited from a much better political environment, but Harris managed to fight him to a draw or even a small leftward swing in a lot of metro ATL counties — while demographically-similar places in other parts of the country swung right by a lot.

This is one of those times when trends probably tell us more than a simple swing.

[ottermax]

Georgia posters might have a better answer to this, but I also feel like Georgia was prioritized more as a critical state this time than in 2020. Harris spent a lot and campaigned significantly there which I imagine would have played a role.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think metro Atlanta actually did swing left. The southern suburban counties are just demographic turnover, as whites leave the area while blacks from Fulton/DeKalb move in. A black person voting in Covington counts the same as when they voted in College Park. The actual important area of the metro ATL area is North Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Cherokee, and Forsyth. Those are the dense and have seen the most inter-state migration. Trump actually improved in North Fulton (Milton), Gwinnett, and managed to fight Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee to a net-even swing.

Kamala got 70k more votes than Biden did in 2020 which insane, and if you told me that I would have said she wins the state. Trump asked Raffensperger for 11,780 more votes in 2020, turns out he got over 200k this time around which is completely crazy considering most of the growth in the state is in the Atlanta area.

(Obviously did some rounding for napking math but should still be fine)
Metro Atlanta raw vote NET by county vs 2020:
Fulton: Trump+3k
DeKalb: Trump+12.5k
Clayton: Trump+2.5k
Cobb: Harris+3.5k
Gwinnett: Trump+6k
Cherokee: Trump+6.5k
Forsyth: Trump+2.5k
Douglas: Harris+5k
Fayette: Harris+2.5k
Henry: Harris+14.5k
Rockdale: Harris+3.5k
Newton: Harris+3k

All of it gets you Trump+1k, but remember rounding might make it a tie or slight Harris lead, or even a slightly larger Trump net.

But after all of that growth and movement in population in the area recently unlike 2020 which helped Biden significantly, turned out to be a net wash this year which is why Harris lost. Trump gained on her in the rurals and prevented her from gaining any ground in this area which is a must for any Democrat in Georgia.

[RBH]

Elon's election rigging machine confused Georgia with the Republic of Georgia and Trump is about to win the ROG elections with a big swing

/s

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

There's a pattern in quite a few metro areas of especially conservative suburbia and exurbia (though certainly not all) swinging towards Harris. You see this in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, but also in the WOW Counties, Livingston and St. Tammany in Louisiana, Clermont in Ohio, suburban Indianapolis, Hanover in Virginia, and many suburban counties in North Carolina.

Most of these are communities where an observer would identify them as being especially right wing, particularly in the pre-Trump era. I'm not exactly sure why this is (an actual Liz Cheney effect?) but it's interesting in that these sorts of places are the bedrock of the modern GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's a pattern in quite a few metro areas of especially conservative suburbia and exurbia (though certainly not all) swinging towards Harris. You see this in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, but also in the WOW Counties, Livingston and St. Tammany in Louisiana, Clermont in Ohio, suburban Indianapolis, Hanover in Virginia, and many suburban counties in North Carolina.

Most of these are communities where an observer would identify them as being especially right wing, particularly in the pre-Trump era. I'm not exactly sure why this is (an actual Liz Cheney effect?) but it's interesting in that these sorts of places are the bedrock of the modern GOP.

Perhaps some of it is these places we’re starting from a very Conservative baseline so Rs maintaining their margins was always going to be tricky - especially as suburbs generally become more educated. Even if these suburbs/exurbs still have net R migration, if that’s R+40 for an R+60 suburb, it’d still marginally push it left.

[Wormless Gourd]

The actual ATL metro barely shifted right but I understand the question. It varies by area.

Southern ATL counties shifting noticeably left = black in-migration and white flighting.

Even if black turnout is down in the state and Trump is improving marginally with all groups, the pace and type of demographic change among the electorate is insurmountably bluer than previous elections.
Henry, GA had the largest pro-Dem swing this year across all US counties just as it had in 2016-2020.

It's also gone from +16% plurality white to +13% plurality black from the 2010 to 2020 census. Atlanta remains a magnet for this type of growth, with places in parts of southern DFW and southern Richmond metros experiencing something similar, but not to the same extent. Cobb is somewhat still following this.

Northern ATL counties being stagnant or slightly left shifting = rural southern white nature of the counties turn into broadly GOP suburbs and exurbs that net more votes for them at a quicker pace than they become bluer.

Examples of Cherokee, Bartow, Jackson, Hall are all rapidly growing, to the left of 2012, but netted Trump more votes than Romney. This looks like other counties did in 2016-2020, such as Montgomery, TX or Horry, SC.
Forsyth not so much follows this, as the influx is more diverse but not as black as the southern counties. Still, it stalled the usually rapid left trend this year and netted more votes than 2020 for Trump.

Core ATL counties is where there's a longer established black population, saw turnout drop, minorities slightly trend to Trump and wealthy whites revert a tad. Other (non-TX/non-FL) southern cities saw this very slight Trump shift, like Charlotte or Birmingham.

[Big Jim]

Most likely demographic change. I expected GA to become a blue state by 2024. I guess 2028 it is.