What points this cycle would Trump have lost?

[Tekken_Guy]

What points this cycle would Trump have lost?

EDIT: Examples can be either with Biden or Harris as his opponent.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Jan 2021-August 2021, June 2022-October 2023

[riverwalk7]

Pre-Afghanistan withdrawal and possibly between November 2022 and May 2023.

[E-Dawg]

Pre-Afghanistan withdrawal and possibly between November 2022 and May 2023.

What happened in May 2023?

[riverwalk7]

Pre-Afghanistan withdrawal and possibly between November 2022 and May 2023.

What happened in May 2023?

DeSantis announced at that time, though the general gist is that Trump's favorables dipped right after the midterm then slowly recovered. Maybe the correct answer is actually the first indictment, though very unclear.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Through about July 2021 (by August, the chants that led to the "Let's Go Brandon" thing were widespread in football stadiums, even in swing and blue states).  And then, maybe in early 2023, but I kind of doubt that.  While the red wave didn't fully materialize, we do have to remember that Republicans still won the House NPV in 2022.

I think this election was fundamentally at least a Lean R election that would have required an excellent Democratic performance (or very weak Republican one) to cause the nation to go blue.

[riverwalk7]

Through about July 2021 (by August, the chants that led to the "Let's Go Brandon" thing were widespread in football stadiums, even in swing and blue states).  And then, maybe in early 2023, but I kind of doubt that.  While the red wave didn't fully materialize, we do have to remember that Republicans still won the House NPV in 2022.

I think this election was fundamentally at least a Lean R election that would have required an excellent Democratic performance (or very weak Republican one) to cause the nation to go blue.

I think Trump would have won if the hypothetical Presidential election was concurrent with the 2022 midterm, but lost if the hypothetical Presidential election happened shortly after the midterm.

[Mr. Smith]

Everything in Biden's term until 10/7/2023, he wins everything with a small blip in September this year, and the election one week later probably would've gone to Harris, since she was clocking up the late deciders.

[Tekken_Guy]

Everything in Biden's term until 10/7/2023, he wins everything with a small blip in September this year, and the election one week later probably would've gone to Harris, since she was clocking up the late deciders.

Is this assuming Biden or Harris as his opponent?

[Redban]

Right after the 2022 midterms, Trump's favorability/approval numbers fell. He was looking weak after many of his endorsed-candidates lost. I think he might've lost at that point

[Samof94]

Everything in Biden's term until 10/7/2023, he wins everything with a small blip in September this year, and the election one week later probably would've gone to Harris, since she was clocking up the late deciders.

What if that war never happened?

[wbrocks67]

I think if the election was held the week after the debate, maybe.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Right after the 2022 midterms, Trump's favorability/approval numbers fell. He was looking weak after many of his endorsed-candidates lost. I think he might've lost at that point

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=530926.msg8877474#msg8877474

Yup, crazy to think about it in hindsight.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe just after the debate. Maybe.

It was the only moment where everyone seemed to agree that he looked "weak."

The Harris campaign should have pushed for it closer to the election.

[dw93]

Jan. 6th, 2021-August 2021, Jun. 2022-Oct. 2023, Aug. 2024-Early Oct. 2024. IMHO, at least.

[Morgan Kingsley]

Anytime between january 20, 2021, and april 23, 2023.

After biden announced his campaign the election was Trump's

[JGibson]

January 6th, 2021-August 2021, June 2022-October 2023, August-early October 2024.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Any time while Biden was still running and in good enough health to win a debate.

[Mr. Smith]

Everything in Biden's term until 10/7/2023, he wins everything with a small blip in September this year, and the election one week later probably would've gone to Harris, since she was clocking up the late deciders.

Is this assuming Biden or Harris as his opponent?

Either.

Everything in Biden's term until 10/7/2023, he wins everything with a small blip in September this year, and the election one week later probably would've gone to Harris, since she was clocking up the late deciders.

What if that war never happened?

Enough voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania hold out to bail him out.  He becomes the first Democrat to win without the popular vote.