Prelimary Ratings for 2026

[riverwalk7]

Of course, it's very early right now and predictions made now tend to be way off. Here are my very early predictions for each:
Senate:
Alaska: 🔴+6
Florida Special: 🔴+10
Georgia: 🔴+1 (with Kemp), 🔵 +2.5 without
Iowa: 🔴+4
Maine: 🔴+4 (with Collins), 🔵 +16 (without Collins)
Michigan: 🔵+8
New Hampshire: 🔵+12
New Jersey: 🔵+10
North Carolina: Tie (without Cooper), 🔵 +2 with Cooper
Ohio Special: 🔴+4
Texas: 🔴+8
Virginia: 🔵+10

All others are Safe Incumbent Party.

Governor:
Alaska: 🔴+3
Arizona: 🔵+1
Georgia: 🔴+1
Florida: 🔴+9
Iowa: 🔴+2
Kansas: 🔴+5
Michigan: 🔵+10
Nevada: 🔴+12
New Hampshire: 🔴+12
New York: 🔵+8
Ohio: 🔴+6
Pennsylvania: 🔵+15
Texas: 🔴+6
Wisconsin: 🔵+3

All others are at least Likely Incumbent Party, but some could be competitive if the incumbent party approval ratings are low by the election and/or a popular incumbent in a state that normally favors the other party retires.
House:

(Some depend on candidates; ie whether or not Cuellar or Golden run again).

[ProgressiveModerate]

This far out, these would be my initial Senate ratings:



This far out, my standard for safe and likely are both pretty high - I suspect a decent amount of the lean states will become likely and likely safe, but this far out there are so many unknowns.

What this map does kind of show is Democrats kind of have a large set of reach seats between AK/FL/KS/IA/OH/TX. Individually, I'd consider them current underdogs in all of them, but winning even just 1 could be really powerful. Similarly, there's probably a certain inflection point in the national environment (~D+8) where things could start getting really bad really fast for Republicans at the Senate level.

On the flip side, Republicans have fewer reaches (GA, MI, MN, NH), but given Democrats are already in a minority even Republicans just gaining would be powerful and essentially eliminate any prospects of a Dem Senate in 2028 and possibly 2030.

House I'll have to do another day

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We have a chance in Iowa with Sand and OH with Ryan that gives us 4 seats

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Likely D: MN, NH, NM, VA
Lean D: GA, MI
Toss-Up: ME, NC (Lean D if Cooper runs)
Lean R: None
Likely R: AK, IA, KS, OH, TX

The rest are safe.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Cooper isn't running Wiley Nickels already announced

[Crane]

Really, really hope this is the year Scottsy the Nazi is finally booted from PA.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Clear adv to inc party FL, TX, RI, OR, MT, AK, MI, MN, SC, MS, TN, AL, ID, WY, DEL, MS, Ok
Narrow adv inc party GA, OH and IA our 4th seat
No clear adv inc party NC and ME 2 seats

If Sand and Ryan we will get 4 seats

GA, OH and IA the Gov races are safe R

[windjammer]

Likely D: MN, NH, NM, VA
Lean D: GA, MI
Toss-Up: ME, NC (Lean D if Cooper runs)
Lean R: None
Likely R: AK, IA, KS, OH, TX

The rest are safe.

I agree with all of that except Ohio that should be lean dem because this is an open seat

[Talleyrand]

Likely D: MN, NH, NM, VA
Lean D: MI
Toss-Up: GA, NC
Lean R: ME
Likely R: AK, IA, KS, OH

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely D: CO, MN, NH, NJ, NM, VA
Lean D: MI
Toss-Up: GA, ME, NC
Lean R: none
Likely R: AK, FL, IA, KS, OH, TX

[Spectator]

Likely D: NH, VA, NM
Lean D: MI
Tossup: NC, GA, ME
Lean R:
Likely R: OH, IA, KS, AK, TX, FL

[MillennialModerate]

I can't see why people see Georgia as more likely Dem than North Carolina if Cooper and Kemp run.

If they both run Cooper (could lose) but starts as a clear favorite and Ossoff would be in a very tight race with Kemp. If Trump isn't the catastrophic disaster we think he will be - Kemp is 50/50 to beat Ossoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I can't see why people see Georgia as more likely Dem than North Carolina if Cooper and Kemp run.

If they both run Cooper (could lose) but starts as a clear favorite and Ossoff would be in a very tight race with Kemp. If Trump isn't the catastrophic disaster we think he will be - Kemp is 50/50 to beat Ossoff.

The basic logic is that GA is generally a bit to the left of NC and in federal Senate elections, candidates tend to lose a lot of the crossover appeal they may have had at the state level. Plus Ossoff is just a solid incumbent - better than Tillis (though this might change depending on how these next 2 years go).

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Likely D: MN, NH, NM, VA
Lean D: GA, MI
Toss-Up: ME, NC (Lean D if Cooper runs)
Lean R: None
Likely R: AK, IA, KS, OH, TX

The rest are safe.

I agree with all of that except Ohio that should be lean dem because this is an open seat

You mean Lean Republican, right? Ohio will still be an uphill climb, even with a good candidate.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I can't see why people see Georgia as more likely Dem than North Carolina if Cooper and Kemp run.

If they both run Cooper (could lose) but starts as a clear favorite and Ossoff would be in a very tight race with Kemp. If Trump isn't the catastrophic disaster we think he will be - Kemp is 50/50 to beat Ossoff.

Cooper hasn't announced and has clearly retired from politics Wiley Nickels already announced

[windjammer]

Likely D: MN, NH, NM, VA
Lean D: GA, MI
Toss-Up: ME, NC (Lean D if Cooper runs)
Lean R: None
Likely R: AK, IA, KS, OH, TX

The rest are safe.

I agree with all of that except Ohio that should be lean dem because this is an open seat

You mean Lean Republican, right? Ohio will still be an uphill climb, even with a good candidate.

Yes lean republican sorry lol

[UWS]

I could easily see Republicans expand map and believe some races are closer than analysts could determine as Michigan will be toss up as Peters recently voted against blocking sale of arms to Israeli Army which will anger the Muslim and Palestinian communities in Michigan like this conflict cost Harris Michigan and almost brought down Slotkin. And with John James or James Craig, GOP could make it close race. In Virginia, the race could be close with Youngkin running as he has 57 % approvals. And New Hampshire could be competitive with either Sununu or Morse running. Even if Sununu said he doesn’t plan senate run, the same was said for Hogan and NH is more purple than MD; » And with Kemp having 60 plus % approval makes him the best hopeful for this senate race