Most vulnerable senator up in 2026?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is the most vulnerable senator up in 2026?

[The Mikado]

No matter what she says now I strongly believe Collins doesn't end up running. Running in a Trump midterm is a catastrophic situation for her.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tillis may be in a more favorable state than Collins, but he has never won by much more than 1% even against a bad opponent in 2020. So, in a bad environment for Republicans and if someone like Cooper challenges him, he's in pretty dire straits.

[Spectator]

While Ossoff is a lot more vulnerable than people on this site want to believe, I fail to see how the answer isn't Tillis. I don't see a coherent argument for how he'd be favored against Cooper.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Probably Tillis, but it could be Collins if Golden or Jackson run.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/MingAutocrat/status/1856804416961081488

[brucejoel99]

No matter what she says now I strongly believe Collins doesn't end up running. Running in a Trump midterm is a catastrophic situation for her.

Collins' biggest break for her 2026 re-election prospects atp is arguably just the unlikelihood of Golden challenging his ex-boss whom he's still good friends with, because the 2024 AP/Fox exit poll is yikes for her (net fav #s: Collins -8; Mills +5):

https://twitter.com/polltracker2024/status/1860765952352129321

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Tillis because he barely won last time , Wiley Nickels is gonna be the nominee not Cooper

[Reactionary Libertarian]

In terms of vulnerability: Tillis > Ossoff > Collins > Peters

[riverwalk7]

In terms of vulnerability: Tillis > Ossoff > Collins > Peters

Agree with this order, and don't think Peters is close to the same tier as the rest. Peters is probably in the same tier as Ernst/Sullivan.

[Zenobiyl]

Tillis
Collins
Ossoff

(Big gap)

Peters

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If Kemp runs it's a Lean R state otherwise it's Tillis and Collins

[coloradocowboi]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

[New World Man]

Does Tillis survive a primary? I can't see some crazy R trying to take him out.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

Wasn't there a recession in 2020 too?

[Spectator]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

Wasn't there a recession in 2020 too?

Markets had more than recovered by the time of the election.

[GAinDC]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

Wasn't there a recession in 2020 too?

2020 was a man made recession, and Americans got big stimmy checks — which helped Trump

[coloradocowboi]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

Wasn't there a recession in 2020 too?

If these tariffs go through, it will look like nothing in comparison. Or the deportations tbh. They are gonna totally disrupt the supply chain with no real plans. Will they actually do it? I dk tbh

Also, Dobbs is gonna be a massive weight around Collins’ neck.

[henster]

I just don't see how Susan Collins can win after two years of Trumponomics. People forget that personal brand goes out the window when the party you're affiliated with becomes affiliated with an ailing economy. See: Bob Casey.

In even a D+2 midterm, and tbh I think it will more likely be ~D+8, Collins is in serious trouble.

Wasn't there a recession in 2020 too?

If these tariffs go through, it will look like nothing in comparison. Or the deportations tbh. They are gonna totally disrupt the supply chain with no real plans. Will they actually do it? I dk tbh

Also, Dobbs is gonna be a massive weight around Collins’ neck.

I think her breaking her term limits promise can be especially salient if Dems run the right candidate. A lot of the type of attacks Osborn used against Fischer would work perfectly against Collins. Honestly recruiting some random union president in Maine wouldn't be a bad idea.

[Zedonathin2020]

Given that it's a Trump midterm, Tillis, followed by Collins

[somco]

I think Tillis is probably some degree of underdog against Cooper no matter what, but I think the answer is pretty clearly Collins. I don't subscribe to the notion that Dems need Golden to be favored there; this is a state that just voted D+7 in an election where the GOP won the popular vote, she hasn't faced a real blue environment since 2008 (she won 61-38 but this was an era where Dems could win Senate seats in AR/LA in presidential years), and her fav/unfav matches up almost exactly with the presidential results in the state this year. I think polarization is finally going to get her

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Tillis is probably some degree of underdog against Cooper no matter what, but I think the answer is pretty clearly Collins. I don't subscribe to the notion that Dems need Golden to be favored there; this is a state that just voted D+7 in an election where the GOP won the popular vote, she hasn't faced a real blue environment since 2008 (she won 61-38 but this was an era where Dems could win Senate seats in AR/LA in presidential years), and her fav/unfav matches up almost exactly with the presidential results in the state this year. I think polarization is finally going to get her

The case for Collins was in her previous race it was the heart of #votebluenomatterwho and was probably the most polarizing election in recent history while she was actually in a significant amount of risk over the Kavanaugh and Trump acquittal vote. This time around with 53 seats, she will be casting a lot of votes against Trump's agenda and his cabinet picks in the Senate, so her voting record in the next two years is going to look very moderate. Apparently, she is also incredibly effective at getting pork to Maine (but I still need to confirm this further).

That being said, she can absolutely go down depending on who the Dems nominate and Trump's approval in two years. I would say it's a Tilt R race right now but it will change as we learn candidate and environment information.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I think Tillis is probably some degree of underdog against Cooper no matter what, but I think the answer is pretty clearly Collins. I don't subscribe to the notion that Dems need Golden to be favored there; this is a state that just voted D+7 in an election where the GOP won the popular vote, she hasn't faced a real blue environment since 2008 (she won 61-38 but this was an era where Dems could win Senate seats in AR/LA in presidential years), and her fav/unfav matches up almost exactly with the presidential results in the state this year. I think polarization is finally going to get her

She has to outperform Maine's partisan lean by a lot less than Tester did this year, and Maine is a very elastic state. And midterm years are less polarized than presidentials.

[President Johnson]

Tillis, especially if Cooper runs.

However, I'm not sure whether Collins or Ossoff is more vulnerable.

[Spectator]

I think Tillis is probably some degree of underdog against Cooper no matter what, but I think the answer is pretty clearly Collins. I don't subscribe to the notion that Dems need Golden to be favored there; this is a state that just voted D+7 in an election where the GOP won the popular vote, she hasn't faced a real blue environment since 2008 (she won 61-38 but this was an era where Dems could win Senate seats in AR/LA in presidential years), and her fav/unfav matches up almost exactly with the presidential results in the state this year. I think polarization is finally going to get her

Much of her unpopularity presumably comes with Republicans that will vote for her in the end like they did in 2020. The argument is that Golden is needed since Collins can otherwise use her fake independence and chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee to dupe the apparently not very intelligent voters of Maine yet again. You can only beat the fake moderate with another fake moderate. I only hope we get this matchup just for the absurdity of each of them bending back over heels to show performative independence from their parties. We can only be so lucky.