Expecting a late drop of 215K in NY and say another 60-90K in MA?

[qrdlelections]

Hi All,

Looks like all the national prez counting is mostly done or at least estimated by the SoS sites.  

The only two states left that are mysterious are NY and MA.   My guess is probably about another +65K for Kamala in NY and another +30K in MA.  We'll end up just below 1.5% popular vote margin for Trump over Kamala (which is much less than the 1.55% that Nate Silver last estimated, and quite a bit higher than the CEO of Atlas Intel at 1.34% and much higher than the 1% two party margin that WaPo estimated)

Looking at the CA SoS page, ~+30k net change for Kamala, depending on rejection rate for curing ballots.  Maybe some more in MD, OR, IL, WA, etc and some more Trump in UT plus others.

The reasoning I have for the above is that if you look at turnout numbers in CT, NJ (dem urban counties), they are way above what we currently see in NYC and MA.   Eg, NJ dem urban is at ~92% fully counted, but Boston and Queens is only at 83% currently.  And Boston had 'reports' of record turnout and running out of ballots.  

Another reason is that both of these areas have reported large dumps very late in both 2016 and 2020.  No one really talks about them, but they happen, and really only making marginal changes to the PV.  For those who care about such things and the related democratic transparency, I think it's a big deal.  

Every Vote Counts.


Am I missing something here?  Any specific details folks can provide would be helpful.