What did the polls get right and wrong about the election?

[Tekken_Guy]

What did the polls get right and wrong about the election?

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

A big one on "right" was PA voting right of WI, which I had been skeptical of.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

NYT/Siena was correct on TX and FL going R by double digits, and on Trump consistently doing well enough in the NPV to be favored in the EC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do have to give the polls some credit - I was a pretty big skeptic pre-election in large part because I thought all the swing states were herding too much. In the end, they all voted pretty close together (with the exception of AZ).

WI being the most left of the swing states was something they got right - after the 2016/2020 polling errors in the state almost no one believed this would be the case but it happened. Also the sunbelt was generally to the right of the rust-belt.

I have to give NYT a decent amount of credit too - they weren't scared to publish polling results that deviated from the polling and pundit consensuses like their Trump + 5 AZ poll or Trump + 13 TX poll and it ended up paying off.

It also seems like most of the under-the-surface crosstab results that people were hounding on (young voters, Hispanics, and Asians shifting right, seniors shifting left).

Democrat's strength amongst black voters was once again underestimated even though black voters did swing right, so that's one small area they got wrong.

Honestly this election did increase myh overall trust in polling a bit.