Did the split-ticket voters vote FOR Trump or AGAINST Harris?

[Pericles]

While the level of split-ticket voting was historically low this year again, the pattern of it was quite striking. While Trump won all seven swing states, Republicans only won a Senate race in one of them and actually lost by more in the states Trump did better in. While Georgia and North Carolina didn't have Senate elections, Stein's win suggests that the same thing could have happened there too.

What does all this mean? While we're not talking about many votes, it would have been enough to change the outcome if Harris had won them and/or Trump had lost them. So who were the voters who voted for a Senate Democrat and then for Trump?

Do we think they were mainly Trump supporters who don't like the Republican Party? That means they actually approve of Trump and would vote for him over most Democrats but would not turn out for most Republicans.

Or were they Democratic leaning voters who disliked Harris and/or the Biden administration and voted for Trump despite not liking him much? They'd still be up for grabs in the future then, but for looking back the conclusion to draw would be that Harris blew it.

Of course there will be both types of voter, but which of these two types do we think was the biggest factor?

[Pericles]

So far it's looking like a consensus, even though I didn't think it was super obvious.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So far it's looking like a consensus, even though I didn't think it was super obvious.

Honestly I think a lot of it is neither. Senate incumbents generally overperform their party’s presidential nominee but it’s just that all the purple seat senate seats were held by democrats so they had all the over performers.

 

[Pericles]

So far it's looking like a consensus, even though I didn't think it was super obvious.

Honestly I think a lot of it is neither. Senate incumbents generally overperform their party’s presidential nominee but it’s just that all the purple seat senate seats were held by democrats so they had all the over performers.
 

To a certain extent, but Arizona and Michigan were open seats while a Democratic incumbent lost in Pennsylvania. The House is a mystery because House Republicans did better in the popular vote but I'd guess worse in competitive districts. I know IA-3rd was a tie at the House level and Trump +9% and apparently some of the New York Democratic gains actually voted for Trump.