Cartwright's performance was impressive considering the statewide results in the 8th.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/DemHackMaps/status/1858323001776967958?t=ttff_Fc_YJXtdYDINVV...

Even Casey lost it by 5 !

[CentristRepublican]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

[Tekken_Guy]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

[CentristRepublican]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

[Spectator]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

Often being an overperformer/underperformer changes over the course of a politician's career and people who were weak candidates in one election become electoral titans in another - Mike DeWine is a decent example of this.

I suspect Dems will be fine, especially because they have a decent chance of peeling off PA-07, PA-10, and possibly even PA-08 in 2026 which should give them a new bench.

Also we really don't know how McCormick will be as a Senator these next 6 years. Will he become a #moderatehero who is seen as unbeatable. Will he be seen as out of touch because he's so wealthy? Will he be seen as an extreme MAGA Republican?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

Has he ruled out a rematch in 2026?

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Seeing Moscow and Carbondale that red is brutal.

[Spectator]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

Has he ruled out a rematch in 2026?

No, but i also don’t know why he would when he’s retirement age and he’d be in a tough fight every two years. It’s not like the PA Dems don’t have a decent bench in PA-08. Marty Flynn comes to mind. He won by 20 points in a Biden +10 seat and has the profile for the seat as a former corrections officer.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

[Tekken_Guy]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

On the other hand, the midterm electorate will probably be more D-friendly than 2024’s was. It’ll be harder for Bresnahan to win without low propensity Trump voters coming out.

[New World Man]

It's all fun and games until these asshole's vote to take away healthcare,food stamps,and give massive tax cuts.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Shapiro did worse here than Obama 2012 btw, trends were brutal for Dems.

[Spectator]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

That is a good comparison. The only differences that might make the difference this time is that the swing from 2012 to 2016 was 17 points. PA-08 was only a little more than 5 points, though a lot of that swing happened in 2012-2016 anyway but Cartwright just happened to hold on for as long as he did. With Shapiro leading the ticket in a landslide and the Trump-only voters theory still in play, it wouldn’t shock me if Dems had one last hurrah here for a term or two. That might be the play anyway—get Marty Flynn to knock off Bresnahan, hold on for two terms, and then have him take on McCormick.

[Tekken_Guy]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

That is a good comparison. The only differences that might make the difference this time is that the swing from 2012 to 2016 was 17 points. PA-08 was only a little more than 5 points, though a lot of that swing happened in 2012-2016 anyway but Cartwright just happened to hold on for as long as he did. With Shapiro leading the ticket in a landslide and the Trump-only voters theory still in play, it wouldn’t shock me if Dems had one last hurrah here for a term or two. That might be the play anyway—get Marty Flynn to knock off Bresnahan, hold on for two terms, and then have him take on McCormick.

I was thinking Cognetti, but Flynn could work too.

[MargieCat]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

What about Chrissy Houlahan, Madeliene Dean, and Mary Gay Scanlon? They flipped swing seats but got shored up. Conor Lamb is also young and could launch a comeback.

Also, Democrats are likely to flip several swing sweats in 2026, reviving their bench.

[Spectator]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

What about Chrissy Houlahan, Madeliene Dean, and Mary Gay Scanlon? They flipped swing seats but got shored up. Conor Lamb is also young and could launch a comeback.

Also, Democrats are likely to flip several swing sweats in 2026, reviving their bench.

They'd all be in their 60s or early 70s by then. Lamb shoulda made an AG comeback this year if he wanted to stay in politics longterm, and he very well might have won. I doubt he runs, and would be afterthought after that many years out of office. DeLuzio did do better than both Harris and Casey in his seat and he's young, so maybe he'd be a contender. Or one of the probable new 2026 wave people might be stars. Either way though, Dems are at a disadvantage right now in terms of bench strength with no row officers and only DeLuzio in the House delegation to draw from.

[Devils30]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

I think this seat is going to be the one Dems target for elimination in the 2030 redistricting cycle. They will try to put Scranton into PA-7 and put all of Luzerne, Carbon into a safe red PA-8 that goes much further west and takes parts of the current 9th. If they control the court in 2030 I expect them to try for something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6213bb7e-74d6-458c-8f90-e578142e742f

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

I think this seat is going to be the one Dems target for elimination in the 2030 redistricting cycle. They will try to put Scranton into PA-7 and put all of Luzerne, Carbon into a safe red PA-8 that goes much further west and takes parts of the current 9th. If they control the court in 2030 I expect them to try for something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6213bb7e-74d6-458c-8f90-e578142e742f

Lmao no court no matter how hacky will draw their own gerrymander, especially not that blatant. If Dems gain the state senate (which is fairy plausible) then a map like that isn’t outside the realms of possibility, though it’ll be much uglier to satisfy parochial and incumbent concerns.

[Devils30]

Looking at this, it looks like pretty bad news for Democrats that Casey lost here by 5, considering he also had a very strong brand, but this also shows how much Cartwright was an institution. I suspect with the incumbency advantage, Bresnahan will prove hard to dislodge. Cartwright won here by 9 in 2018 (well not the same seat but very similar), looks like the area has also trended right since. With a Casey type performance from Dems you can get that down to 6 and and an incumbency advantage is probably worth 2-3 pts and trends probably worth another 1-2. Would not be surprised at all if this seat is what we look back at as 2026’s version of IL-12 (a seat Dems would normally win in a wave but trends have just become too brutal). I guess it’s fair to start this as Tossup.

I think this seat is going to be the one Dems target for elimination in the 2030 redistricting cycle. They will try to put Scranton into PA-7 and put all of Luzerne, Carbon into a safe red PA-8 that goes much further west and takes parts of the current 9th. If they control the court in 2030 I expect them to try for something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6213bb7e-74d6-458c-8f90-e578142e742f

Lmao no court no matter how hacky will draw their own gerrymander, especially not that blatant. If Dems gain the state senate (which is fairy plausible) then a map like that isn’t outside the realms of possibility, though it’ll be much uglier to satisfy parochial and incumbent concerns.

I’m not saying the court will approve that map, just that Dems will try to have Scranton and Allentown in PA-7, PA-8 very red and PA-10 Harrisburg, Cumberland and city of Lancaster.

[wbrocks67]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

What about Chrissy Houlahan, Madeliene Dean, and Mary Gay Scanlon? They flipped swing seats but got shored up. Conor Lamb is also young and could launch a comeback.

Also, Democrats are likely to flip several swing sweats in 2026, reviving their bench.

They'd all be in their 60s or early 70s by then. Lamb shoulda made an AG comeback this year if he wanted to stay in politics longterm, and he very well might have won. I doubt he runs, and would be afterthought after that many years out of office. DeLuzio did do better than both Harris and Casey in his seat and he's young, so maybe he'd be a contender. Or one of the probable new 2026 wave people might be stars. Either way though, Dems are at a disadvantage right now in terms of bench strength with no row officers and only DeLuzio in the House delegation to draw from.

Houlahan is only 57, and she definitely does not come off even that old. I imagine both her and Deluzio will likely run statewide in the future.

[coloradocowboi]

Hmmm, interesting that the person who has never waffled on M4A outperformed the person that did. It's almost as if voters are not as opposed to the welfare state as much as wealthy consultant types have led us to believe...

[wbrocks67]

Cartwright was a good example of the packaging. He was an unabashed progressive-leaning Democrat but didn't package himself as one. It's all about presentation.

[Spectator]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

What about Chrissy Houlahan, Madeliene Dean, and Mary Gay Scanlon? They flipped swing seats but got shored up. Conor Lamb is also young and could launch a comeback.

Also, Democrats are likely to flip several swing sweats in 2026, reviving their bench.

They'd all be in their 60s or early 70s by then. Lamb shoulda made an AG comeback this year if he wanted to stay in politics longterm, and he very well might have won. I doubt he runs, and would be afterthought after that many years out of office. DeLuzio did do better than both Harris and Casey in his seat and he's young, so maybe he'd be a contender. Or one of the probable new 2026 wave people might be stars. Either way though, Dems are at a disadvantage right now in terms of bench strength with no row officers and only DeLuzio in the House delegation to draw from.

Houlahan is only 57, and she definitely does not come off even that old. I imagine both her and Deluzio will likely run statewide in the future.

If they wanna lose, sure. Chester County middle-aged white wine moms are not the people the Dems need to appeal to win PA. She will be in her 60s by the time the next Senate or gubernatorial race come up.

[wbrocks67]

Cartwright would be an excellent candidate for Senate down the line (either as a primary challenger to Fetterman or a general election challenger to McCormick).

Cartwright is getting up there with age you know.

He'd be 67 or 69 depending on whether he ran in 2028 or 2030...it's certainly old, but not prohibitively so. He could definitely crank out a term or two if he wanted to.

He'll have been an afterthought without holding any office for 6 years. That said, the Dem bench is decidedly decimated right now. Maybe they will be that desperate. The GOP swept the row offices, and there's no remaining swing seat Dems in the US House. Maybe Chris DeLuzio I guess, but he underperformed Fetterman and Shapiro pretty substantially in 2022.

What about Chrissy Houlahan, Madeliene Dean, and Mary Gay Scanlon? They flipped swing seats but got shored up. Conor Lamb is also young and could launch a comeback.

Also, Democrats are likely to flip several swing sweats in 2026, reviving their bench.

They'd all be in their 60s or early 70s by then. Lamb shoulda made an AG comeback this year if he wanted to stay in politics longterm, and he very well might have won. I doubt he runs, and would be afterthought after that many years out of office. DeLuzio did do better than both Harris and Casey in his seat and he's young, so maybe he'd be a contender. Or one of the probable new 2026 wave people might be stars. Either way though, Dems are at a disadvantage right now in terms of bench strength with no row officers and only DeLuzio in the House delegation to draw from.

Houlahan is only 57, and she definitely does not come off even that old. I imagine both her and Deluzio will likely run statewide in the future.

If they wanna lose, sure. Chester County middle-aged white wine moms are not the people the Dems need to appeal to win PA. She will be in her 60s by the time the next Senate or gubernatorial race come up.

This is pretty gross statement considering Houlahan is much more accomplished and has a very solid back story in the Army and isn't just a "middled aged white wine mom". Do better.