Why did Harris underperform with Native Americans

[ProgressiveModerate]

Many of these heavily Native American Counties lurched right by double-digits. Was it just that Native American turnout was bad? Did the abortion issue hurt her amongst some of these groups? Did Trump have some unique appeal to these groups this cycle?

[BaldEagle1991]

The group which is the least wealthiest and more likely working class group might have played a part.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She underperformed with all minority groups because of ideological sorting. She only held up with blacks in my opinion because she was the first black woman nominated in American History, thus the primarily female black electorate didn't budge

[Mr. Smith]

She underperformed with all minority groups because of ideological sorting. She only held up with blacks in my opinion because she was the first black woman nominated in American History, thus the primarily female black electorate didn't budge

First Indian one too, and yet they also moved.

Now as for the Native American vote, what did she do or not do exactly? Biden's campaign did a good job targeting that vote in 2020, and that helped offset Hispanic shifts in Arizona.

[DaleCooper]

Like with everywhere else in the country, it was likely a mix of bad turnout and backlash against Biden's catastrophic economy.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

She underperformed with all minority groups because of ideological sorting. She only held up with blacks in my opinion because she was the first black woman nominated in American History, thus the primarily female black electorate didn't budge

First Indian one too, and yet they also moved.

Now as for the Native American vote, what did she do or not do exactly? Biden's campaign did a good job targeting that vote in 2020, and that helped offset Hispanic shifts in Arizona.

Biden's raw vote margin in Apache County was ever so slightly greater than his statewide raw vote margin!

[ottermax]

The lack of a primary probably hurt as well - usually Democrats do a decent job of showing up during a primary to reservations and Native communities, but Harris did not have time to introduce herself this time.

And obviously just a match with other working class trends.

[Sumner 1868]

Hillary Clinton in 2016 did poorly on reservations as well, although that was exacerbated by her refusal to take a stand on DAPL.

[New World Man]

In WI most of the tribes are still very Democratic. The one exception are the Ho Chunk in southern and west central WI. They are by far the richest tribe,and not many live on reservations.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I thought she was disingenuous.

No other group can smell a fake better than American Indians.

Nice person, but in the end, not someone who people thought would be capable of running the largest economy in the World.

[NOVA Green]

So a bit confused....

The OP stated something as fact without citing any sources....

Please discuss with maps and data and not just tossing random things out without any supporting facts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So a bit confused....

The OP stated something as fact without citing any sources....

Please discuss with maps and data and not just tossing random things out without any supporting facts.

What County 3 counties had the largest swing right in MT? Glacier, Baline, and Big Horn Counties - all which are majority Hispanic.

In ND, it was heavily Native Sioux County with the largest swing right

In SD, Ziebach and Ogala Lakota Counties had the largest swing right.

In AZ, Apache County lurched 15% right Presidentially

My claim should be pretty easy to see just looking at a swing map.

[RBH]

Counties with Highest Percent of Vote
Kennedy
Essex, VT 4.15%
Blaine, MT 4.01%
Sheridan, MT 3.56%
Roosevelt, MT 3.50%
Hill, MT 3.19%
Big Horn, MT 3.04%
Glacier, MT 2.95%
Ziebach, SD 2.94%
Wheeler, OR 2.88%
Silver Bow, MT 2.81%

County in Vermont
majority Native American
mostly white county in the NE corner of Montana
majority Native American
20%+ Native American
majority Native American
majority Native American
majority Native American
random place with white people in East Oregon
perennially Democratic area with lots of Irish people

So, out of 10 counties where Kennedy was 2.8% or higher, half of them were Majority Native American.. which I'm thinking was an anti-Trump/Dem+Harris protest vote. Without Kennedy on the ballot in MT/SD, idk how his voters split out but I don't think his local support overlapping with NA counties is a coincidence

[EastOfEden]

Low turnout (also happened in Native areas in 2022), distinctly high third party voting in some places (thank you RBH for pointing that out, interesting!), lack of campaigning (Biden campaign targeted the demographic well, which was arguably a big part of his wins in Arizona and Wisconsin), universal R swing affected every demographic.


Apache County, AZ is a good example - Trump did gain, but the D decrease far exceeded the R increase. Harris got 4421 fewer votes than Biden, while Trump got only 1353 more votes than in 2020. Third-party votes decreased. That's quite the turnout drop. Mind you, Harris still got more votes than Clinton - it fits the general pattern across the country this election of, in most places, Republicans maintaining their 2020 turnout and Democrats dropping.

[NOVA Green]

So here's another verified precinct data point to add to the thread.

So regardless of all of the memes about Native Americans voting Trump in '24, this does not appear to be the case in the Warm Springs Reservation in Jefferson County...

Sure as I have posted in previous GE threads there are a lot of folks who live on the Rez here, as well Native Land in the Umatilla land in NE OR who are not Native American but rather a mixture of folks allowed to work and live on the REZ, from a variety of different backgrounds working in Tribal owned facilities, plus intermarriage, and all that good stuff.

Jefferson County: Precinct #24: Warm Springs

2024:

TV= 665

Harris (D):  522    (78.5%)
Trump (R):  107    (16.1%)
Others:        36     (5.4%)

2020:

TV= 766

Biden (D):  641    (83,7%)
Trump (R):  45    (5.9%)
Others:        30    (3.9%)

2016:

TV= 530

Clinton (D):  360    (67.9%)
Trump (R):    66    (12.5%)
Others:        104   (19.6%)

Anyways you look at it looks like in the Warm Springs Rez was a mixture of DEM base not turning out combined with folks who voted Biden in '20 and flipping to Trump in '24.

Thinking Clinton might have taken a hit on Keystone in '16, Biden recovers a bit, but obviously TV dropping on the REZ by (-100) will take a massive whack on the margins any ways you look at it.

Fact is that the same PUB PREZ dude increased his TVs by (62) between '20 and '24 while DEMs dropped (120) in basically what used to be the HQ in OR of AIM back in the dayz certainly raises some eyebrows.

Still, I suspect that this might well be a temporary phenomenon, but still clearly a bit of a red flag.

[RBH]

it would be neat to have a precinct result from the precinct which is the Haskell Indian Nations University precinct in Lawrence, KS since there's a lot of college-age Native American voters living around that area, but their result is joined in with some other precincts