Pew: Democrats in Despair

[Comrade Funk]

The MSNBC-ification of the Democratic Party has been a disaster
https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1861057793999999262

[PALiberal]

The MSNBC-ification of the Democratic Party has been a disaster
https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1861057793999999262

Has a party's image ever been this toxic amongst the American public? The only time I can think would be the Republicans in Fall of 08. Even with people bringing up 2004, it was not like people looked at the Democrats back then and saw them as toxic to working class rural voters. You still had a large number of blue dog Democrats in congress at that time, and people regularly splitting their ticket if the down ballot Dem was palatable to them.

[GAinDC]

ugh, depressing

Not really sure where Democrats go from here, but I think it'll just take time. We need to see how Trump's term plays out and who steps up as new leaders in the party.

But I don't completely fault Biden and Harris; they had to lead America through a really rough time, all while Trump was lurking in the background. It's really hard to turn the page when your predecessor convinced a huge chunk of people that you stole the election.

[GAinDC]

also, things can change quickly. Two years ago, Republicans were the ones who seemed to be in a very bad spot after an embarrassing underperformance in the midterms that was arguably even more humiliating than Dems' defeat this year.

sometimes you just have to be patient and wait for the tides to turn in your favor

[wbrocks67]

How did we not learn to not take Gallup seriously? Really?

[hurricanehink]

How did we not learn to not take Gallup seriously? Really?

Or polls in general?

[Chief Justice PiT]

     The trends in favorability with Trump and Vance up and Harris down is something that strikes me a lot in post-election polling. While Trump's win was not that large in objective terms, it seems to have changed the narrative and moved a certain number of voters towards liking him and disliking Democrats. It's true that things can change and maybe Trump will be <40% a year from now, but I would point out that no president since Bush has seen a meaningful surge in approval ratings, so for something to be able to move the dial in your favor even by a little is a big deal.

[wbrocks67]

How did we not learn to not take Gallup seriously? Really?

Or polls in general?

Well, unfortunately, some polls were actually decent this year, it's just hard to decipher with some because I believe many did herd at the end, and you also have right wing spam that was going to have Trump up a few points whether he actually was or wasn't.

but Gallup particularly was such an egregious example of a mess that we should not be taking that as gospel given their wild 7-pt swings every other month

[GAinDC]

     The trends in favorability with Trump and Vance up and Harris down is something that strikes me a lot in post-election polling. While Trump's win was not that large in objective terms, it seems to have changed the narrative and moved a certain number of voters towards liking him and disliking Democrats. It's true that things can change and maybe Trump will be <40% a year from now, but I would point out that no president since Bush has seen a meaningful surge in approval ratings, so for something to be able to move the dial in your favor even by a little is a big deal.

He's only just breaking even here, which was similar to his favorability in Gallup before the election

[New World Man]

People were absolutely stupid not having any memory of how bad Trump handled things under Covid. God help us if one bad thing that is truly pressure packed happens in the next 4 years.

[Skill and Chance]

also, things can change quickly. Two years ago, Republicans were the ones who seemed to be in a very bad spot after an embarrassing underperformance in the midterms that was arguably even more humiliating than Dems' defeat this year.

sometimes you just have to be patient and wait for the tides to turn in your favor

I think this aspect of 2022 was very overstated and got too many people's hopes up way too high in left-leaning circles. In fact, the 2024 national popular vote result will end up almost exactly in line with the 2022 generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, to a decimal point!

https://split-ticket.org/2022/12/12/estimating-2022s-generic-ballot/

Both were around R+1.6, and even the relative state "trends" are surprisingly similar, with Trump improving dramatically over 2020 in several of the most urbanized states, just like 2022 R's and with the Midwest clearly trending D.  However, this was still enough for Trump to win without controversy, just like Republicans clearly flipped the House in 2022. 

In retrospect, 2022 wasn't something D's should have been too excited about replicating.  At the end of the day, it was still a Republican PV lead!