Pew: Democrats in Despair

[Averroës]

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/11/22/after-trumps-victory-democrats-are-more-pessimistic-about-their-partys-future/

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, Democrats’ pessimism about their party’s future is now higher than at any point over the last eight years.

[...]

For the first time since 2016, more Americans say the Republican Party represents the interests of “people like them” very or somewhat well than say this about the Democratic Party (50% vs. 43%).

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I find it interesting that both D-leaners and R-leaners are more likely to say the other party represents them very/somewhat well now than they did last summer. D-leaners went from 11% to 16% for the GOP; R-leaners went from 13% to 15% for the Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This basically happens to both parties after disappointing losses - I think this election was very upsetting for Democrats because there were very few places where Harris actually improved - at least in 2016 Clinton's stronger showing in certain metro areas and sunbelt states paved a pathway for the future of Democrats. However, after this cycle there are few places that stand out as prime opportunities to continue building support - and infact many of the areas where Democrats genuinely felt like they had been making gains saw reversion (Arizona, Texas).

I have a feeling whether it's in 2, 4, or 6 years from now Democrats will find a new way forward.

[Chief Justice PiT]

     2016 was also rough for Democrats, but this year is considerably worse, probably because (in addition to the point above about a lack of bright spots on the map) Trump actually won the NPV this time. A lot of Democrats take it for granted that 2026 will be great for them; I expect it to be a net Dem cycle, but properly taking advantage of that will be incumbent on building a solid base from which to oppose the Trump Administration and the lower spirits as compared to last time will make that a challenge.

[Eraserhead]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

Too many people in politics treat it not as a genuine public service but as a career like any other for PMC types. Elected officials are the tip of the iceberg here.

There’s also the obvious issue of the omnicause social advocacy groups who overlap with but are not quite the same as the career politics crowd. But the broader point stands: a center-left party weakening because its traditional working class/labor base has left the party in large numbers (if they haven’t literally died off) in favor of a diverse, younger, more college-educated urban/“New Economy” cohort. And as we saw this year, this newer base’s political loyalty (or reliability in turning out to vote, at least) isn’t as strong as the Democrats assumed!

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

[Bush did 311]

The despair has multiple layers to it.

This really shouldn't have been a losing year by any stretch. Biden was clearly a better president than Trump and the last four years have been an incredible time for reinvestment in American manufacturing and reestablishing a more cool-headed social harmony in the country compared to the constant protests and discord that marked Trump's last term. The inflation was rough but it was contained, and it objectively wasn't bad enough to preclude a win for the democrats especially against a candidate they've already beaten before. I think if you'd given Republicans this year to defend their incumbent, they'd have pulled it off and that just illustrates the total weakness of the Democratic party.

Not only did Trump win but he got a trifecta. Trump and Bush both got 4 years of trifecta. Obama and Biden each got 2 years of trifecta. Not hard to see where this trend is going. Democrats are just failing to net positive on volleys and they are losing ground on policy wins over the long haul.

I think if you zoom out and look at why Democrats lose, the issue looks daunting and basically insurmountable.

-The media has always served capital and it always will. This will always be an uphill challenge.
-The electoral system gives Republicans an edge at every step. The senate, the electoral college, and extreme gerrymandering in the House benefits them more.
-The democratic party itself is a controlled opposition party that seems to be fine with throwing away elections like this. The party leadership isn't going to change a bit.
-As a controlled opposition party, democrats are limited in their rhetoric to what their donors allow them to say. Populist rhetoric that they need to use to win sounds too much like "class warfare" to their donors and will not be allowed.
-The "demographic inevitability" which liberals consoled themselves with over the past 30 years came crashing down in this election. It's over. GenZ is shifting to the right.
-I think Trump will benefit from the economic investments Biden made and can sit pretty with 4 years of inflation free growth now. He'll be seen as the next Reagan as long as he doesn't wreck the furniture too much.
-Democrats have never learned from any of their four losses since 2000 that chasing moderate Republicans is futile.
-The left has never learned from letting democrats lose in the three prior losses to this that accelerationism never works.
-No one is learning.

From where I'm sitting, I think we are entering a new right wing era in American politics where corporations and billionaires will gain far more power to directly micromanage our lives and extract surplus value from our labor. It looks to me like things are going to get worse and there is probably no chance of stopping it.

[Virginiapol]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

The reason there was no reflection from MAGA Republicans in 2020 because all of them thought it was stolen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

The reason there was no reflection from MAGA Republicans in 2020 because all of them thought it was stolen.

Or after 2012.

And I think the Democrats need to just stop overthinking for a little while, see how the next Trump term plays out (an inevitable catastrophe) and adapt from there like in 2017 through 2020. We're repeating history, and the question becomes how much damage Trump will do and what can be salvaged if he leaves office in 2029.

I'm in less despair about the party, but I feel worse about the country at-large. Although I know that I can look forward to some satisfying schadenfreude and smugness in the coming years due to that.

[GAinDC]

The despair has multiple layers to it.

This really shouldn't have been a losing year by any stretch. Biden was clearly a better president than Trump and the last four years have been an incredible time for reinvestment in American manufacturing and reestablishing a more cool-headed social harmony in the country compared to the constant protests and discord that marked Trump's last term. The inflation was rough but it was contained, and it objectively wasn't bad enough to preclude a win for the democrats especially against a candidate they've already beaten before. I think if you'd given Republicans this year to defend their incumbent, they'd have pulled it off and that just illustrates the total weakness of the Democratic party.

Not only did Trump win but he got a trifecta. Trump and Bush both got 4 years of trifecta. Obama and Biden each got 2 years of trifecta. Not hard to see where this trend is going. Democrats are just failing to net positive on volleys and they are losing ground on policy wins over the long haul.

I think if you zoom out and look at why Democrats lose, the issue looks daunting and basically insurmountable.

-The media has always served capital and it always will. This will always be an uphill challenge.
-The electoral system gives Republicans an edge at every step. The senate, the electoral college, and extreme gerrymandering in the House benefits them more.
-The democratic party itself is a controlled opposition party that seems to be fine with throwing away elections like this. The party leadership isn't going to change a bit.
-As a controlled opposition party, democrats are limited in their rhetoric to what their donors allow them to say. Populist rhetoric that they need to use to win sounds too much like "class warfare" to their donors and will not be allowed.
-The "demographic inevitability" which liberals consoled themselves with over the past 30 years came crashing down in this election. It's over. GenZ is shifting to the right.
-I think Trump will benefit from the economic investments Biden made and can sit pretty with 4 years of inflation free growth now. He'll be seen as the next Reagan as long as he doesn't wreck the furniture too much.
-Democrats have never learned from any of their four losses since 2000 that chasing moderate Republicans is futile.
-The left has never learned from letting democrats lose in the three prior losses to this that accelerationism never works.
-No one is learning.

From where I'm sitting, I think we are entering a new right wing era in American politics where corporations and billionaires will gain far more power to directly micromanage our lives and extract surplus value from our labor. It looks to me like things are going to get worse and there is probably no chance of stopping it.

I think this is a little dramatic. Even if he coasts on a good economy, trumps advancing age, erratic behavior and compromised cabinet will frustrate voters.

Republicans have also build a party around him and will probably fall flat on their face if their 2028 nominee runs the Trump playbook without Trump.

Dems definitely are in a tough spot right now but I’ve seen parties bounce back from much worse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

The reason there was no reflection from MAGA Republicans in 2020 because all of them thought it was stolen.

Or after 2012.

And I think the Democrats need to just stop overthinking for a little while, see how the next Trump term plays out (an inevitable catastrophe) and adapt from there like in 2017 through 2020. We're repeating history, and the question becomes how much damage Trump will do and what can be salvaged if he leaves office in 2029.

I'm in less despair about the party, but I feel worse about the country at-large. Although I know that I can look forward to some satisfying schadenfreude and smugness in the coming years due to that.

I wonder if all the public thinking may ultimately marginally hurt their prospects with trying to gain back voters because it may make future outreach efforts seem less authentic and more artificial.

Like if after the 2020 election there was a ton of articles about "Republicans desperately try to figure out how to reconnect with suburban voters", if the reversions in some of the suburbs we saw this cycle might've been slightly more modest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

The reason there was no reflection from MAGA Republicans in 2020 because all of them thought it was stolen.

Or after 2012.

And I think the Democrats need to just stop overthinking for a little while, see how the next Trump term plays out (an inevitable catastrophe) and adapt from there like in 2017 through 2020. We're repeating history, and the question becomes how much damage Trump will do and what can be salvaged if he leaves office in 2029.

I'm in less despair about the party, but I feel worse about the country at-large. Although I know that I can look forward to some satisfying schadenfreude and smugness in the coming years due to that.

I wonder if all the public thinking may ultimately marginally hurt their prospects with trying to gain back voters because it may make future outreach efforts seem less authentic and more artificial.

Like if after the 2020 election there was a ton of articles about "Republicans desperately try to figure out how to reconnect with suburban voters", if the reversions in some of the suburbs we saw this cycle might've been slightly more modest.

That's my thinking exactly. Democrats just need to play it by ear and become the future outlet for spite towards a new status quo with Trump and the GOP in power.

[Adjective-Statement]

A good sign for them, actually, in that it's potentially more productive than their reaction to 2016.

[All Along The Watchtower]

One thing that's interesting is post 2020, we never saw this same type of reflection from (MAGA) Republicans, at least publicly, even though Democrats won the NPV by more and Joe Biden got more raw votes than Donald Trump will have this time. In both cycles, the losses can be attributed at least in part to unfavorable headwinds.

To be fair, 2020 was a bit different because even though Democrats won, they generally underperformed expectations, and there were still clear areas where Republicans made gains (i.e. Hispanics, Florida).

The reason there was no reflection from MAGA Republicans in 2020 because all of them thought it was stolen.

Yes, Republicans believe that they and specifically their Leader cannot fail, only be thwarted by the forces of darkness. Democrats certainly have their share of delusional hacks and cultists but they don’t seem to dominate the voting base of the party to the same extent.

If anything, the Democrats’ problem is sort of the inverse in that too many are willing to settle for Generic D (“Vote Blue No Matter Who”,  the case for Joe Biden in 2020 being that he was supposedly the most “electable” candidate against Trump, the frankly disgraceful and embarrassing spectacle of Biden’s re-election campaign with the nadir being the weeks from Biden’s debate non-performance to Harris being subbed in)—because at least Generic D is Not Trump ie. the Louis XIV of the Republican Party since 2016.

[wbrocks67]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

This is true and not true though.

Do Democrats need to work on some things? Of course. But it's not necessarily correct in the sense of ... the Republican party did nothing to overhaul itself after Trump's loss in 2020. They doubled down on it, actually, and then he came back and won. So these things aren't always written in stone.

I'd also argue that while Dems have some things to figure out, Republicans do as well. Feels like there should be a lot more handwringing among themselves on how they nearly lost the House this year and blew so many winnable senate races, but the "Dems in disarray" takes are obscuring that for them.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

Relevant theory

I’ve been slowly groping toward a general theory of where the Democrats are going wrong, and it goes something like this: Democrats are a stronger, more centralized party than the Republicans. This makes it easier for them to keep extremists and populists from taking control of the party, but it also makes them more susceptible to jawboning by special interests.

A variety of activists and special interests — collectively known as “The Groups” — can basically persuade Democratic staffers and politicians of their ideas in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms, well out of the public eye. Democrats’ focus on identitarianism allows the Groups to falsely present themselves as representatives of various “communities” — the Latino “community”, or the trans “community”, etc. And Democrats’ legacy of urban machine politics causes them to think that these “communities” can basically be bought off with targeted benefits, much as they would be in urban politics. Incidentally, this is probably a big part of why progressive cities are governed so badly. Anyway, when all of this finally has to make contact with the actual voting public on election day, it turns out that The Groups weren’t really representative of easily buy-able “communities”, and voters reject the Dems at the polls.

That’s a very simplified model, of course. But it looks like in the aftermath of the 2024 election, a lot of people are zeroing in on a model like this to explain Democrats’ weakness.

More commentary

In my post-election essay, I said that the 2024 election marked the end of the Obama coalition…[S.]ome of the political strategies the Democrats thought would turn Obama’s 2008 and 2012 coalitions into an enduring generational majority — they’ve failed. Democrats worked damn hard over the past few years to deliver what they thought, what they were told, Black and Hispanic and working-class and union voters wanted.

And instead of solidifying support from those voters, they’re seeing them flee to Donald Trump. But I’m also saying something about the structure of the Democratic Party itself…The Obama era…was a collection of institutions and power bases and elite networks. Michael Lind…has argued that it was kind of a political machine, one built around urban political support, foundations, nonprofits, mass media…

I don’t think what’s next for the Democratic Party is just new ideas or campaign tactics…I think it’s…learning how not to listen so much to its funders and interest groups — and how to listen more to the people it’s been losing.

The Obama Democrats, in my view, are the first American national party that is also a national machine in the sense that it’s kind of replicated on the national level the sort of machine structure that has long existed, both in Republican machines and Democratic machines at the state and local level…[B.]asically every big city over a million or so people and every college town is 100 percent Democratic all the time — and this is kind of new. So since the population is largely urban now in the United States, to have a national Democratic machine really just means linking up these big-city urban machines and college-town, one-party systems…

[O.]ld party structures [have] been so eroded that they have been replaced in these Democratic cities…by nonprofits. Not by think tanks…but by service, delivery nonprofits dealing with homelessness, with education, with other things, which get grants from the city government to carry out functions that were performed before the outsourcing that took place beginning with the Clinton era.

[ottermax]

The stat that surprises me the most is the increase in the number of voters who feel the Republican party represents them - from a low of 39% in 2023 to 50% a year later. How on earth did the Republican party gain so much goodwill in a year?

I know Democrats take a lot of the blame here due to a lack of vision or clear communication and poor governance, but what is the Republican party doing besides flooding the airwaves with grievances to gain so much positive support so quickly? Especially given polarization in our era?

[wbrocks67]

The stat that surprises me the most is the increase in the number of voters who feel the Republican party represents them - from a low of 39% in 2023 to 50% a year later. How on earth did the Republican party gain so much goodwill in a year?

I know Democrats take a lot of the blame here due to a lack of vision or clear communication and poor governance, but what is the Republican party doing besides flooding the airwaves with grievances to gain so much positive support so quickly? Especially given polarization in our era?

It's also a little suspect to me that the July 2023 only had 80% saying Dems or Reps and now it's 93%? Seems like a lot of it is immediate post-election stuff that tends to happen for the winning party most of the time

[VALibertarian]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

This is true and not true though.

Do Democrats need to work on some things? Of course. But it's not necessarily correct in the sense of ... the Republican party did nothing to overhaul itself after Trump's loss in 2020. They doubled down on it, actually, and then he came back and won. So these things aren't always written in stone.

I'd also argue that while Dems have some things to figure out, Republicans do as well. Feels like there should be a lot more handwringing among themselves on how they nearly lost the House this year and blew so many winnable senate races, but the "Dems in disarray" takes are obscuring that for them.

I agree with this take generally.

Downballot is a mixed bag for the GOP - I have to think Trump on the ticket helped eek McCormick over the line, but to contrast it Kari Lake shows why nobody in the MAGAsphere can really replicate Trump's success. Sam Brown is probably the bitterest grape for the GOP but that's not really tied to Trump as far as I can tell.

I do think in selecting Vance, Trump is throwing a bone to the MAGA wing both by snubbing the old guard and selecting a successor to carry the torch. But obviously Vance is presumably gonna have a uphill battle come 2028.

[It's Time.]

The party needs a complete overhaul at this point but I'm not hopeful.

This is true and not true though.

Do Democrats need to work on some things? Of course. But it's not necessarily correct in the sense of ... the Republican party did nothing to overhaul itself after Trump's loss in 2020. They doubled down on it, actually, and then he came back and won. So these things aren't always written in stone.

I'd also argue that while Dems have some things to figure out, Republicans do as well. Feels like there should be a lot more handwringing among themselves on how they nearly lost the House this year and blew so many winnable senate races, but the "Dems in disarray" takes are obscuring that for them.

Democrats lost the house, senate, and presidency this year, and are in a worse position than the GOP in state legislatures and SCOTUS. Dems in disarray stories make sense

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

2/3 of black women (and probably the most pragmatic of all voter groups) political organizers, the core of the Democratic organizational base have said they plan to move on from direct electoral politics into either focusing on less direct political organizing (like doing charity work) or focus on their own lives. Whether this changes and whether it even matters if Trump becomes the dictator, I don't know.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-win-black-women-rethinking-125708300.html

The 2/3 figure isn't mentioned in this story. It may not be that high as I may have confused it with something else.

[GAinDC]

I remember when Kerry lost in 2004, there was a lot of talk of the Democratic Party being in the wilderness for years, and then they bounced back quickly.

Republicans usually overstay their welcome pretty fast because they get elected on the idea that government is corrupt and ineffective — but then they become part of the problem they claimed they would fix. They also inevitably spend their political capital on tax cuts or creepy evangelical nonsense.

Meanwhile, Dems regroup and come back stronger. That’s because they are fundamentally a party that believes in the power of government and institutions to make people’s lives better. Once people realize Republicans can’t be trusted to lead the institutions that they actually hate, the voters usually go back to the Dems.

[Samof94]

I remember when Kerry lost in 2004, there was a lot of talk of the Democratic Party being in the wilderness for years, and then they bounced back quickly.

Republicans usually overstay their welcome pretty fast because they get elected on the idea that government is corrupt and ineffective — but then they become part of the problem they claimed they would fix. They also inevitably spend their political capital on tax cuts or creepy evangelical nonsense.

Meanwhile, Dems regroup and come back stronger. That’s because they are fundamentally a party that believes in the power of government and institutions to make people’s lives better. Once people realize Republicans can’t be trusted to lead the institutions that they actually hate, the voters usually go back to the Dems.

Check back in 2 years and see what is going on.

[Adjective-Statement]

2/3 of black women (and probably the most pragmatic of all voter groups) political organizers, the core of the Democratic organizational base have said they plan to move on from direct electoral politics into either focusing on less direct political organizing (like doing charity work) or focus on their own lives. Whether this changes and whether it even matters if Trump becomes the dictator, I don't know.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-win-black-women-rethinking-125708300.html

The 2/3 figure isn't mentioned in this story. It may not be that high as I may have confused it with something else.

Not unsurprising, the 2020s have so far been the 2010s' activist cohort's '70s in that they've retreated from electoral politics to other forms of community-building and self-care. We should be careful with historical parallel, of course (especially when trying to extrapolate forward), but there's much to learn from comparing the unraveling of the Obama Coalition to the fall of the New Deal Coalition. This was almost an inevitability, as Obama had always intended to revitalize the very neoliberal economic system that his movement was galvanized against. The seeds of destruction were sown in the beginning.