Which senate race are Republicans more likely to win?

[Dan the Roman]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

Polls tend to underestimate Trump in NC while being correct in GA. In midterms polls tend to be correct for both states. In 2022 GA voted to the right of NC, and in 2018 the SHAVE House vote (which adjusts for uncontesteds properly) was R +2.3 in GA and D +1.7 in NC.

When it was D+8.6 nationally. I think it's pretty clear Georgia has trended left since then even(and especially given) 2024. North Carolina is more of a zig-zag. It mostly seems to trend in the opposite direction of the country because it never trends as far as other places do. Which likely indicates it will trend R PVI wise in 2026 even if(as likely) it swings D.

[Spectator]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina specifically because it dosen't seem to function on pure PVI.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

There's multiple points that you keep conveniently ignoring or outright distorting. Those include:

1. 2026 will be a Republican presidential midterm. Last time we had one of those, we conveniently had Trump. Theoretically, we have an idea how he will govern and how people will react to it in the midterms. Based on 2018, probably not well. Dems in NC swept the judicial races in 2018, which you brought up in your other argument but conveniently left out here. "Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances." You also conveniently overlook the fact that the 2022 North Carolina Senate race was much closer than most people anticipated, and Dems won a few House seats that they were not expected to win, like Nickel's.

2. Tillis is weak, and it's not a serious argument that he is a strong incumbent. The guy got less percent and votes than Trump did in 2020 despite his opponent being a some dude-level candidate that got in a sexting scandal. He was on track to lose and probably would have narrowly lost had the sexting incident not happened.

3. Cooper won by more than both Trump and Tillis did combined. His approvals since have generally hovered in the mid-50s, and his approvals generally matched Josh Stein's vote share in pre-election polls. Obviously he won't retain that level of crossover support throughout a Senate campaign, but he also doesn't need to do so in a state as close as North Carolina. A nominal overperformance is enough.

4. You say Democrats have some sort of ceiling in NC, but this election proved that ceiling is 55% and the floor is 40% for Republicans. State Dems did very well when you Trump won by 3.2%. When Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, Dems only won four statewide partisan races, including 3 by the skin of their teeth by 0.5% or less (Governor, AG, and Auditor). This year, not only did Dems win more statewide races, but there was also more ticket-splitting in those downballot races. The AG race was about 6 points bluer than the presidential race. SOS and Supe were about 5.3-5.5% bluer. LG was 5% bluer. While some of that had to do with a roughly 100k voter downballot dropoff, each of the statewide Dem winners got at least 50k more votes than Harris did, including Allison Riggs. Jeff Jackson got 160k more votes than Harris did. Mo Green and Elaine Marshall got about 120k more votes than Harris did. This shows they persuaded some Trump voters and didn't just win because Mark Robinson bad.

5. As for your federal races argument, I will point out that Don Davis won in NC-01 by 1.7% in a Trump +2.5 seat. The House race is above the Governor's race on the ballot, so downballot dropoff from the Robinson scandal does not apply. Davis won a federal race in NC in Trump territory on the same ballot as Trump. Davis did about as well as Jackson, Hunt, Marshall, and Green in his seat. How do you reconcile that?

[riverwalk7]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

Polls tend to underestimate Trump in NC while being correct in GA. In midterms polls tend to be correct for both states. In 2022 GA voted to the right of NC, and in 2018 the SHAVE House vote (which adjusts for uncontesteds properly) was R +2.3 in GA and D +1.7 in NC.

When it was D+8.6 nationally. I think it's pretty clear Georgia has trended left since then even(and especially given) 2024. North Carolina is more of a zig-zag. It mostly seems to trend in the opposite direction of the country because it never trends as far as other places do. Which likely indicates it will trend R PVI wise in 2026 even if(as likely) it swings D.

I think GA and NC just are more Republican than you expect given the NPV, and the Northern states more Democrat than you would expect, at least during the Trump era.

I am expecting a NPV environment around D +4 to D +5 (2018 and 2022 had 5.2 and 6.1 point swings versus the incumbent President party respectively after adjusting for uncontesteds). Translating this to the state level I think GA is ~tied, NC D +1, and MI/NH off the table completely. Hobbs is possibly beatable if she is weakened by a serious primary challenge and Rs nominate a good candidate, as I expect a nearly even environment there too. Maine I think has an environment around D +15 but I think Collins is more likely than not to outrun that by enough to survive if she runs again.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Underrated factor for GA is Trump's beef with Kemp. Does Trump try to sink him in a primary? Does that help or hurt him?

[riverwalk7]

Underrated factor for GA is Trump's beef with Kemp. Does Trump try to sink him in a primary? Does that help or hurt him?

I think the conflict between Trump and Kemp will be a lot less of a factor after Trump flipped back GA.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as bad as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

The last time NC had a federal race in a blue wave was 2008. There were no statewide races there in 2018, and while 2012 was a pretty good year for Democrats as well, that’s yet another year that there was no Senate race there. Unless you think 2026 is going to be better for Republicans than 2022 was for Democrats, there’s no reason at all to think Tillis’s race is Lean R. He barely won in a red wave year and then barely won again against a very damaged opponent in a year most Republicans overperformed Trump by more than him. Tillis has never been a very good candidate, so there’s nothing delusional about thinking he’s an underdog against a popular governor in a year that’s likely to be at least bad for Republicans, if not a wave.

[Spectator]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as bad as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

The last time NC had a federal race in a blue wave was 2008. There were no statewide races there in 2018, and while 2012 was a pretty good year for Democrats as well, that’s yet another year that there was no Senate race there. Unless you think 2026 is going to be better for Republicans than 2022 was for Democrats, there’s no reason at all to think Tillis’s race is Lean R. He barely won in a red wave year and then barely won again against a very damaged opponent in a year most Republicans overperformed Trump by more than him. Tillis has never been a very good candidate, so there’s nothing delusional about thinking he’s an underdog against a popular governor in a year that’s likely to be at least bad for Republicans, if not a wave.

That argument will just go in one ear and out the other. He’s already made his mind up that it’s Lean R and no rational argument can persuade him otherwise.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do think there is some historical revisionism regarding Tillis. In 2014, Hagan was the narrow favorite to win by most pundits and polling. Tillis winning that was viewed as somewhat of a narrow surprise, no one 10 years ago thought "this guy barely won in a red tsunami". Then again in 2020, Cunningham was  seen as the steady favorite even after the scandal. PredictIt had him a 60/40 favorite on the eve of the election, and Tillis surprised a lot of people (not me though) and won again. I don't know where this idea of Tillis being a mild underperformer comes from when the opposite is more likely. Also in 2020, Cooper did pretty poorly relative to expectations. The RCP average had him up 11 points!!! and he won by 4.5 points. He's not a bad candidate by any stretch of the imagination but he isn't an electoral titan either like a lot of people seemed to have created a narrative about.

[Spectator]

I do think there is some historical revisionism regarding Tillis. In 2014, Hagan was the narrow favorite to win by most pundits and polling. Tillis winning that was viewed as somewhat of a narrow surprise, no one 10 years ago thought "this guy barely won in a red tsunami". Then again in 2020, Cunningham was  seen as the steady favorite even after the scandal. PredictIt had him a 60/40 favorite on the eve of the election, and Tillis surprised a lot of people (not me though) and won again. I don't know where this idea of Tillis being a mild underperformer comes from when the opposite is more likely. Also in 2020, Cooper did pretty poorly relative to expectations. The RCP average had him up 11 points!!! and he won by 4.5 points. He's not a bad candidate by any stretch of the imagination but he isn't an electoral titan either like a lot of people seemed to have created a narrative about.

PredictIt is not a serious barometer. The polling underestimated the GOP in NC across the board pretty badly, but it was right in 2024. It underestimated Beasley in 2022 and she came much closer than anyone thought. The point stands that Tillis barely beat a scandal-plagued some dude. A popular former Governor in a likely unfavorable midterm environment is a much different beast that Tillis has never had to deal with. This reminds me of the people that argued that there was no way that Stein could win by more than Cooper did. 2020 was just the most polarized electorate we've had in modern memory. We've seen signs of ticket-splitting resurging since.

[Dan the Roman]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina specifically because it dosen't seem to function on pure PVI.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

There's multiple points that you keep conveniently ignoring or outright distorting. Those include:

1. 2026 will be a Republican presidential midterm. Last time we had one of those, we conveniently had Trump. Theoretically, we have an idea how he will govern and how people will react to it in the midterms. Based on 2018, probably not well. Dems in NC swept the judicial races in 2018, which you brought up in your other argument but conveniently left out here. "Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances." You also conveniently overlook the fact that the 2022 North Carolina Senate race was much closer than most people anticipated, and Dems won a few House seats that they were not expected to win, like Nickel's.

2. Tillis is weak, and it's not a serious argument that he is a strong incumbent. The guy got less percent and votes than Trump did in 2020 despite his opponent being a some dude-level candidate that got in a sexting scandal. He was on track to lose and probably would have narrowly lost had the sexting incident not happened.

3. Cooper won by more than both Trump and Tillis did combined. His approvals since have generally hovered in the mid-50s, and his approvals generally matched Josh Stein's vote share in pre-election polls. Obviously he won't retain that level of crossover support throughout a Senate campaign, but he also doesn't need to do so in a state as close as North Carolina. A nominal overperformance is enough.

4. You say Democrats have some sort of ceiling in NC, but this election proved that ceiling is 55% and the floor is 40% for Republicans. State Dems did very well when you Trump won by 3.2%. When Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, Dems only won four statewide partisan races, including 3 by the skin of their teeth by 0.5% or less (Governor, AG, and Auditor). This year, not only did Dems win more statewide races, but there was also more ticket-splitting in those downballot races. The AG race was about 6 points bluer than the presidential race. SOS and Supe were about 5.3-5.5% bluer. LG was 5% bluer. While some of that had to do with a roughly 100k voter downballot dropoff, each of the statewide Dem winners got at least 50k more votes than Harris did, including Allison Riggs. Jeff Jackson got 160k more votes than Harris did. Mo Green and Elaine Marshall got about 120k more votes than Harris did. This shows they persuaded some Trump voters and didn't just win because Mark Robinson bad.

5. As for your federal races argument, I will point out that Don Davis won in NC-01 by 1.7% in a Trump +2.5 seat. The House race is above the Governor's race on the ballot, so downballot dropoff from the Robinson scandal does not apply. Davis won a federal race in NC in Trump territory on the same ballot as Trump. Davis did about as well as Jackson, Hunt, Marshall, and Green in his seat. How do you reconcile that?

1. In 2018, they won the Supreme Court race with under 50%, in part because of the idiotic GOP decision to abolish primaries. Would they have won a top 2? Odds from the judicial race that did look like that are they may have, but by 51%- 49%. I think this is evidence that in a year like 2018 the race would be highly competitive trending towards toss-up. I don't think it is evidence of lean D insofar as I am not convinced 2026 will be as Democratic-leaning as 2018. The trend in midterms has been for them to become less favorable to the out-party during the Trump era. This is why I don't see it as evidence that this is a gimme. I also see the "closeness" of the 2022 Senate race as evidence not for a D-trend but for decreased midterm/presidential differentials in the state. I may be wrong, but this isn't me rejecting evidence. It is me interpreting the data differently or considering other possibilities.

2. As noted he was supposedly the underdog twice. And I don't believe the stuff about Cunningham coming out the way it did was random any more than I believe the stuff that took down Madison Cawthorn was. Tillis runs a brutal operation and he will nuke Cooper, not just politically but personally. Jim Hunt should have won in 1984 too.

3. See past examples, including Jim Hunt. Tillis is good at dragging opponents down with him. Cooper may or may not win but he will be a lot less popular in November 2026 than he is now. Decent odds both candidates will be underwater by then.

4. This is a positive trend for Democrats coming off a decade in which they had one decentish cycle(2018). It occurred when the GOP coordinated campaign had imploded and was badly outspent.

5. Democratic incumbents have a history of hanging on in anything except Democratic midterms. The GOP had started to write-off the seat ahead of election day. That they did so is an indictment, but I am unsure it is representative of a statewide race.

[Spectator]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina specifically because it dosen't seem to function on pure PVI.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

There's multiple points that you keep conveniently ignoring or outright distorting. Those include:

1. 2026 will be a Republican presidential midterm. Last time we had one of those, we conveniently had Trump. Theoretically, we have an idea how he will govern and how people will react to it in the midterms. Based on 2018, probably not well. Dems in NC swept the judicial races in 2018, which you brought up in your other argument but conveniently left out here. "Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances." You also conveniently overlook the fact that the 2022 North Carolina Senate race was much closer than most people anticipated, and Dems won a few House seats that they were not expected to win, like Nickel's.

2. Tillis is weak, and it's not a serious argument that he is a strong incumbent. The guy got less percent and votes than Trump did in 2020 despite his opponent being a some dude-level candidate that got in a sexting scandal. He was on track to lose and probably would have narrowly lost had the sexting incident not happened.

3. Cooper won by more than both Trump and Tillis did combined. His approvals since have generally hovered in the mid-50s, and his approvals generally matched Josh Stein's vote share in pre-election polls. Obviously he won't retain that level of crossover support throughout a Senate campaign, but he also doesn't need to do so in a state as close as North Carolina. A nominal overperformance is enough.

4. You say Democrats have some sort of ceiling in NC, but this election proved that ceiling is 55% and the floor is 40% for Republicans. State Dems did very well when you Trump won by 3.2%. When Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, Dems only won four statewide partisan races, including 3 by the skin of their teeth by 0.5% or less (Governor, AG, and Auditor). This year, not only did Dems win more statewide races, but there was also more ticket-splitting in those downballot races. The AG race was about 6 points bluer than the presidential race. SOS and Supe were about 5.3-5.5% bluer. LG was 5% bluer. While some of that had to do with a roughly 100k voter downballot dropoff, each of the statewide Dem winners got at least 50k more votes than Harris did, including Allison Riggs. Jeff Jackson got 160k more votes than Harris did. Mo Green and Elaine Marshall got about 120k more votes than Harris did. This shows they persuaded some Trump voters and didn't just win because Mark Robinson bad.

5. As for your federal races argument, I will point out that Don Davis won in NC-01 by 1.7% in a Trump +2.5 seat. The House race is above the Governor's race on the ballot, so downballot dropoff from the Robinson scandal does not apply. Davis won a federal race in NC in Trump territory on the same ballot as Trump. Davis did about as well as Jackson, Hunt, Marshall, and Green in his seat. How do you reconcile that?

1. In 2018, they won the Supreme Court race with under 50%, in part because of the idiotic GOP decision to abolish primaries. Would they have won a top 2? Odds from the judicial race that did look like that are they may have, but by 51%- 49%. I think this is evidence that in a year like 2018 the race would be highly competitive trending towards toss-up. I don't think it is evidence of lean D insofar as I am not convinced 2026 will be as Democratic-leaning as 2018. The trend in midterms has been for them to become less favorable to the out-party during the Trump era. This is why I don't see it as evidence that this is a gimme. I also see the "closeness" of the 2022 Senate race as evidence not for a D-trend but for decreased midterm/presidential differentials in the state. I may be wrong, but this isn't me rejecting evidence. It is me interpreting the data differently or considering other possibilities.

2. As noted he was supposedly the underdog twice. And I don't believe the stuff about Cunningham coming out the way it did was random any more than I believe the stuff that took down Madison Cawthorn was. Tillis runs a brutal operation and he will nuke Cooper, not just politically but personally. Jim Hunt should have won in 1984 too.

3. See past examples, including Jim Hunt. Tillis is good at dragging opponents down with him. Cooper may or may not win but he will be a lot less popular in November 2026 than he is now. Decent odds both candidates will be underwater by then.

4. This is a positive trend for Democrats coming off a decade in which they had one decentish cycle(2018). It occurred when the GOP coordinated campaign had imploded and was badly outspent.

5. Democratic incumbents have a history of hanging on in anything except Democratic midterms. The GOP had started to write-off the seat ahead of election day. That they did so is an indictment, but I am unsure it is representative of a statewide race.

1. Alright, so you're just fitting your own narrative.

2. And Cooper isn't a brutally effective tactician? He was the only candidate to unseat an incumbent Governor in 2016, and that was despite running against the headwind of the other party carrying the state presidentially. Tillis barely beat a some dude guy in a sexting scandal. What a skilled operator.

3. Jim Hunt outran the presidential numbers by almost 20 points in 1984 LOL. Also not sure if you're having a senior moment, but his opponent was Jesse Helms, not Tillis. Anyhow, I already conceded that Cooper will probably not sustain his mid-50s approval throughout the campaign. He also doesn't need to. A small overperformance is more than enough in a state as close as NC.

4. Yes. Cooper also happened to win in two of those not-good cycles when Trump was winning the state. If 2026 is even modest blue wave, then that would be the easiest environment he's ran in since 2008.

5. You said federal elections in your previous post. I presented you an example of a federal election just this year in NC where a Democrat won in a district that Trump won. You seem to cling to this idea that NC Dems cannot somehow be favored in a federal race in the state despite looking past the fact that there hasn't been a Senate race in a blue-leaning year in the state since 2008. Cooper has not ran in a blue-leaning year in the state since 2008 and he keeps winning anyway.