Which senate race are Republicans more likely to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which senate race are Republicans more likely to win in 2026? Ossoff vs. Kemp in Georgia or Tillis vs. Cooper in NC?

[Talleyrand]

Always NC.

[Spectator]

Hot take is GA. Popular Governors tend to overperform, and that goes for both Cooper and Kemp.

[Mr. Smith]

Since Trump won, it'll be Tillis with better chances than Ossoff.

[Spectator]

Since Trump won, it'll be Tillis with better chances than Ossoff.

Not following the logic. Party in power tends to do worse, 2022 and 2002 notwithstanding.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Neither

[Reactionary Libertarian]

GA

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

At the moment I'd guess NC, but it's a knife-edge sort of thing.

[here2view]

I'd say Georgia, I think Kemp is a better candidate than Cooper, although I also think Ossoff is a better candidate than Tillis. Could see an argument for both sides, however.

Cooper is a strong candidate, but Kemp's 2022 results show a little broader coalition.

Cooper
2016: 49%
2020: 51.5%

Kemp
2018: 50.2%
2022: 53.4%

[Mr. Smith]

Since Trump won, it'll be Tillis with better chances than Ossoff.

Not following the logic. Party in power tends to do worse, 2022 and 2002 notwithstanding.

Polarization and split-ticket declines.

Also you forgot 2018.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Narrowly GA, but only because Tillis will probably be close to DOA as the election approaches if Cooper is his opponent.

[CentristRepublican]

Hot take is GA. Popular Governors tend to overperform, and that goes for both Cooper and Kemp.

The thing is though that I think both their popularities are overstated.

Cooper's decently popular, yes, and I love him for winning NC-GOV for the Dems twice, but still - he won by 4.5 points against a pretty bad candidate. I don't honestly think he's as much of an electoral titan atp as he's made to be.

As for Kemp, he's definitely being overstated. He (and Raffensperger) largely won by such large margins off the strength of anti-Trump Dems that wanted to split ballots or wtv and got fooled into thinking Kemp was a moderate bc Trump attacked him in the primary. Now, that dynamic won't hold in 2026. Either Kemp will kowtow to Trump - tacitly if not overtly - or he'll founder in the primary. And if he does end up having to grovel at Trump's feet, then whatever goodwill Dems currently have for him will evaporate. He's stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I think his crossover appeal will be diminished if he does what he has to to win the primary.

[CentristRepublican]

Still think NC. I think Dems are favored in both states, but NC hasn't voted Dem at the federal level in decades, whereas GA - well, look no further than Ossoff himself.

Plus GA still does have more favorable trends than NC, 2024 notwithstanding (where I believe NC trended slightly more Dem than GA).

Since Trump won, it'll be Tillis with better chances than Ossoff.

Not following the logic. Party in power tends to do worse, 2022 and 2002 notwithstanding.

Polarization and split-ticket declines.

Also you forgot 2018.

This isn't fair at all. Yes, the GOP netted 2 seats, but that's entirely because Dems were defending Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia. The map was just highly unfavorable to us.

It's like saying 2022 was a good year for Dems because they netted 2 governorships...when the GOP was defending open seats in Massachusetts and Maryland.

[Dan the Roman]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as bad as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

[Tekken_Guy]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

The difference is that Trump’s 2024 win in NC can be attributed to the bad national environment for Harris rather than the state’s stubborn R lean.

[Mr. Smith]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

Tillis eked through on a tsunami the first time that was entirely unexpected att, and the second time he literally ran behind Trump, and that was with a damaged opponent.

Both times, his race was left of the nation. This indicates an underperformance, not an overperformance.

[Spectator]

Still think NC. I think Dems are favored in both states, but NC hasn't voted Dem at the federal level in decades, whereas GA - well, look no further than Ossoff himself.

Plus GA still does have more favorable trends than NC, 2024 notwithstanding (where I believe NC trended slightly more Dem than GA).

Since Trump won, it'll be Tillis with better chances than Ossoff.

Not following the logic. Party in power tends to do worse, 2022 and 2002 notwithstanding.

Polarization and split-ticket declines.

Also you forgot 2018.

This isn't fair at all. Yes, the GOP netted 2 seats, but that's entirely because Dems were defending Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia. The map was just highly unfavorable to us.

It's like saying 2022 was a good year for Dems because they netted 2 governorships...when the GOP was defending open seats in Massachusetts and Maryland.

Well 2022 was a good year for Dems, independent of that. Holding KS, WI, MI and the open PA seat was a feat that defied history. 2018 was not a good year for the GOP, even if they got partisanship to save them in some states. If there's another 2018, North Carolina goes blue pretty easily. Dems swept the judicial races in the state that year, and Allison Riggs' tentative win there this year will be the sole Dem judicial win since then. They are typically to the right of the Council of State and federal races.

[riverwalk7]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

I think NC-Sen is a tossup overall and Tilt D if Cooper runs. Tillis doesn't strike me as particularly strong given his mediocre electoral record (he outperformed Trump by less in 2020 compared to Perdue/James/etc. versus a weaker opponent and had a relatively lackluster showing in 2014 too given the national environment. His favorables also aren't great). Yes NC hasn't voted D recently at the federal level, but in 2018 it was around D +1.7 at the House level (adjusting for uncontested properly), and Ds might have won a Senate seat there if it was up that year.

Similarly I feel like GA Senate is Tilt D overall, but moves to Tilt R if Kemp runs (Ossoff seems to have underperformed in all the races that he's run too). Given history (ie how NC and GA midterms compare to the previous Presidential), we can expect the general environment of GA to be about 1 point to the right of NC in the midterm, however the runoff complicates things. I think the candidate quality delta favors Rs in GA vs NC and if there's a runoff in GA Ossoff doesn't have as favorable turnout dynamics as Warnock (ie I don't think we will see black turnout shoot up in the runoff like we did the last 2 GA runoffs).

[Spectator]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

Maybe stay in your lane when discussing southern politics if you're going to say things like that. I for one never thought Harris had a shot at Texas or Florida, and predicted long before most that she'd lose FL by double digits. Cooper vs. Tillis is Lean D if not Likely D when you factor in who the president in power will be. Tillis is a weak incumbent and only barely beat a no-name has-been ex-state senator who left office 18 years prior who had a sexting scandal erupt two months before the election.

Cooper's 4.5% win was smaller than expected, but it was against a credible challenger and swimming uptide against Trump winning and Cal Cunningham's embarrassment. Nonetheless he still won by more than Trump and Tillis did combined.

If 2026 is only half as blue as 2018, Tillis is toast to Cooper.

[Compuzled_One]

NC because it's a Trump midterm, so I see little chance to gain seats.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

[Dan the Roman]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

"Winnable?" Yes. But probable? That is people making broad claims about what should happen. If anything, North Carolina is a reverse Nevada. Polarized but it's really hard for the GOP to win. So yes, Nevada Senate was winnable for the GOP in 2010, 2016, 2022, 2024 but they never won it.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

[Spectator]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

[Dan the Roman]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina specifically because it dosen't seem to function on pure PVI.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

[riverwalk7]

This thread and board suffers a weird delusion about North Carolina almost as abd as the blue Texas one pre November.

No Democrat has won any federal election against anyone in North Carolina in 16 years. Democrats have only won federally in North Carolina in 2008 over the past 26 years. Every single cycle we have the same posts about how North Carolina is certain to flip next time and it never happens.

This is not to say it won't.  But people thinking Tillis v Cooper is even a toss-up rather than Lean R are similar to those who thought Texas/Florida were toss-ups a month ago.

Tillis is one of the best political operators in the state of North Carolina over the past 20 years. He has a moderate record. He represents the party which wins every single federal race regardless of polling. His opponent had two narrow victories where he massively underperformed expectations and polls.

Yet we have people treating the race as if it is lean if not likely D.

NC voted .1% to the right of NV and to the left of AZ this year. If you think NV and AZ are winnable for Democrats federally than NC is too.

The problem with NC is elasticity. Other than the Governor’s race this year there is very little ticket splitting. Look at the Superintendent's race for example. Democrats appear to have a very low ceiling, one that until Riggs(pending a recount) has been fatal in judicial races and left them winning by the skin of their teeth even in the best of circumstances.

I am not saying a Democrat cannot theoretically win. Just that something that consistently does not happen no matter the justifications for it occurring is a weird thing to list as probable much less use terms like "toast" for the chances of a GOP incumbent senator.

Trump never produced the sort of backlash in North Carolina seen in northern suburbs or even greater Atlanta. There is no reason to believe in a 2018 type environment changing gravity in North Carolina , not least because 2018 was quite a bit weaker in North Carolina than it was elsewhere.

This is similar to the NH house races in 2022. On paper the GOP should have won. But New Hampshire dosen't quite work like that. Then people who inferred for 2024 based upon 2022 also got it wrong. Because it was doing its own thing.

Georgia strikes me as much more likely to be effected by the national environment than NC.

Regarding Arizona and Nevada those lack an evangelical Christian GOP base, Nevada has a vastly stronger Democratic party, and Arizona may well be trended in a dangerous direction for Democrats

Sure, if you just completely ignore all the other arguments people have posted. The south isn't New Hampshire, brother. Thank god for that, too.

Again, what arguments?

These are uniform swing arguments which have historically been a horrendous guide to who actually wins elections in North Carolina. They are the reason most major prediction metrics had it going for Clinton/Biden, and in both cases as a "lean" not even a toss-up.

My point is these arguments have consistently been wrong when it comes to North Carolina.

And again I am not saying they will be wrong. Merely that we should be cautious because there is no reason to believe they will be correct.

Polls tend to underestimate Trump in NC while being correct in GA, which is why pundits had Democrats incorrectly favored in NC in 2016/2020. In midterms polls tend to be correct for both states. In 2022 GA voted to the right of NC, and in 2018 the SHAVE House vote (which adjusts for uncontesteds properly) was R +2.3 in GA and D +1.7 in NC.