Why was there such a big turnout differential this cycle?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Especially in non-swing states, turnout was disproportionately down in Democratic strongholds whereas turnout in Republican areas was similar to or even above 2020 levels. Georgia is a great example of this:



Pre-election, there was a narrative amongst some that Dem enthusiasm had approached 2008 levels while the Republican ground operation was messy and uncoordinated, yet in the end it's clear Republicans had the turnout advantage relative to 2020.

Interestingly, it seems that Dem turnout was poor amongst both liberal whites and non-whites. Trump's larger than expected wins in states like AZ and TX. Were these voters who stayed home people who were unhappy with the current administration but didn't like Trump either? Were they voters that Democrats were less effective in reaching than previous cycles?

On the flip side, who were these new Trump voters, especially in ruby red rural areas who didn't vote in 2020 but showed up this time? Some of his increases can possibly be explained in part by population increase but certainly not all.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Interestingly, it seems that Dem turnout was poor amongst both liberal whites and non-whites. Trump's larger than expected wins in states like AZ and TX. Were these voters who stayed home people who were unhappy with the current administration but didn't like Trump either?

This was my default assumption for a Trump victory. There are many many left-leaning whites, Blacks, Latinos, Asians, naturalized immigrants, younger voters, etc. out there who would absolutely never vote for Trump/MAGA, but were also unmotivated to turn out for Dems given governance issues in urban cores and a de facto white-collar recession.

[ottermax]

I have been wondering this as well.

Turnout massively dropped in urban areas throughout the country among Democrats - even in cities run by Republicans like Miami. I think a combination of negativity around Biden, Gaza, and cost of living especially hit urban voters and depressed turnout. General fatigue from the Obama coalition.

I think generally working class Democrats turn out less when economic conditions are rough, but what was odd in this election was how Trump turned out working class voters in these areas who normally would just not show up.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I think generally working class Democrats turn out less when economic conditions are rough, but what was odd in this election was how Trump turned out working class voters in these areas who normally would just not show up.

I'm not really surprised that this happened in the Acela corridor- at least not in Metro NYC, Chicagoland, MA, or MD.

[Pericles]

In such a polarised era, one party being unpopular shows up almost as much in turnout as it does in vote switching. So it was just to be expected given that 2024 turned out to be a rejection of the Biden administration, albeit by a close margin.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

[Duke of York]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

I really don't think Gaza was that big of a factor among my fellow after-1993's0 especially since non-(cultural) Muslims who are particularly animated by this issue are generally aware that a Trump administration would've been worse. I don't talk about politics to people IRL, but I'd guess poor messaging from the Biden administration and general anti-incumbent sentiment were much bigger factors.

[pppolitics]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

Blame Harris. Don't blame us.

She should have reached out to us and addressed our concerns.

Had she said that she will make sure that our allies (who receive foreign aid) follow international and humanitarian laws, she would have easily gotten our votes.

[Duke of York]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

Blame Harris. Don't blame us.

She should have reached out to us and addressed our concerns.

Had she said that she will make sure that our allies (who receive foreign aid) follow international and humanitarian laws, she would have easily gotten our votes.

How sad this is all you care about. Trump will do nothing different so what do you gain?

[pppolitics]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

Blame Harris. Don't blame us.

She should have reached out to us and addressed our concerns.

Had she said that she will make sure that our allies (who receive foreign aid) follow international and humanitarian laws, she would have easily gotten our votes.

How sad this is all you care about. Trump will do nothing different so what do you gain?

It's a message to the Democratic Party: Take our concerns seriously or risk losing another election.

[Duke of York]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

Blame Harris. Don't blame us.

She should have reached out to us and addressed our concerns.

Had she said that she will make sure that our allies (who receive foreign aid) follow international and humanitarian laws, she would have easily gotten our votes.

How sad this is all you care about. Trump will do nothing different so what do you gain?

It's a message to the Democratic Party: Take our concerns seriously or risk losing another election.

Elections are decided by those who vote not those who don’t. There are so many more important things than Gaza and all of those things will see action you don’t like. You have zero right to complain if you don’t vote. Making a stupid videos on TikTok does nothing either. Voting does.

How entitled to act like this. Young people could have prevented another trump presidency be you chose to not vote over something thousands of miles away. How selfish and entitled.

[pppolitics]

Probably because of Gaza. I know lots of young people who refused to vote Democrat because of this issue

and its truly pathetic that's all they cared about. Trump will no different so what did they gain by not voting? Nothing. Maybe young people are truly entitled. they whine and complain on Reddit or Tik Tok but can't bothered actually voting.  It would be good thing if Tik Tok actually is banned.

Blame Harris. Don't blame us.

She should have reached out to us and addressed our concerns.

Had she said that she will make sure that our allies (who receive foreign aid) follow international and humanitarian laws, she would have easily gotten our votes.

How sad this is all you care about. Trump will do nothing different so what do you gain?

It's a message to the Democratic Party: Take our concerns seriously or risk losing another election.

Elections are decided by those who vote not those who don’t. There are so many more important things than Gaza and all of those things will see action you don’t like. You have zero right to complain if you don’t vote. Making a stupid videos on TikTok does nothing either. Voting does.

I voted for Trump.

Not that he needed my vote to win Nevada, but still…