For DEMS only: what the is the single most dissappointing state for you?

[iceman]

I’m asking the DEMs, which particular state in the entire nation is the most disappointing for you this cycle?

[wbrocks67]

I mean personally for me it's obviously Pennsylvania but outside of that, probably Texas. Just feels like all the work that Dems put in there with the hope it was becoming competitive feels like it took 10 steps back this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say either Arizona or Texas. In both states it felt like we had made a lot of gains during the Trump years, particularly amongst suburban voters, and then it felt like all the progress we had made instantly came apart - I was not expecting Trump to beat his 2016 margin in both states. Perhaps 2024 was an aberration and Trump had some unique appeal amongst non-whites, but still feels like a huge gut punch. I do think Trump's 2024 performance was a bit inflated by unusually strong turnout dynamics in Republican's favor, and down ballot results (AZ-Sen & TX-Sen) still give some reason for future optimism, but on election night honestly what made me the most depressed.

Even though losing MI/WI/PA/GA/NC was disappointing, they were all still relatively close and I'm optimistic about our near-term prospects in those states in 2026 and 2028. Losing NV was also disappointing, but I saw that one coming (honestly still somewhat surprised it voted several points to the left of AZ).

[Eraserhead]

New York, even though Harris still won by double digits. The massive swing towards Trump here was just an ugly thing to see. 

[ottermax]

I'd say either Arizona or Texas. In both states it felt like we had made a lot of gains during the Trump years, particularly amongst suburban voters, and then it felt like all the progress we had made instantly came apart - I was not expecting Trump to beat his 2016 margin in both states. Perhaps 2024 was an aberration and Trump had some unique appeal amongst non-whites, but still feels like a huge gut punch. I do think Trump's 2024 performance was a bit inflated by unusually strong turnout dynamics in Republican's favor, and down ballot results (AZ-Sen & TX-Sen) still give some reason for future optimism, but on election night honestly what made me the most depressed.

Even though losing MI/WI/PA/GA/NC was disappointing, they were all still relatively close and I'm optimistic about our near-term prospects in those states in 2026 and 2028. Losing NV was also disappointing, but I saw that one coming (honestly still somewhat surprised it voted several points to the left of AZ).

Arizona and Texas just completely surprised me because my anecdotal sense of both states is that demographic changes were favoring Democrats (even though the data did not agree with my sentiment) and I just couldn't believe that new residents were more heavily Republican. I also just never imagined the Latino rightward trend accelerating more than it did from 2016 to 2020.

It's really worrying for the 2030s if these trends have any permanence (skeptical that Republicans can replicate these performances without Trump) as the electoral math will favor more of the sunbelt and Arizona in particular was a critical component of the future map, while Texas might be necessary if the Great Lakes start to really fall.

[It's Time.]

I mean personally for me it's obviously Pennsylvania but outside of that, probably Texas. Just feels like all the work that Dems put in there with the hope it was becoming competitive feels like it took 10 steps back this year.

It’s clear that 2016 coalitions with Clinton doing amazing with working class non-whites but cratering with working-class whites were never going to hold. The same factors that caused WWC voters to turn hard right (immigration, the economy, social issues) are now causing non-white working class voters to shift hard right.

Democrats will need to figure out how to not just stop, but reverse the bleeding with Latinos if they want to put Texas back on the map. It’s electorate is about 1/3 Latino.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say either Arizona or Texas. In both states it felt like we had made a lot of gains during the Trump years, particularly amongst suburban voters, and then it felt like all the progress we had made instantly came apart - I was not expecting Trump to beat his 2016 margin in both states. Perhaps 2024 was an aberration and Trump had some unique appeal amongst non-whites, but still feels like a huge gut punch. I do think Trump's 2024 performance was a bit inflated by unusually strong turnout dynamics in Republican's favor, and down ballot results (AZ-Sen & TX-Sen) still give some reason for future optimism, but on election night honestly what made me the most depressed.

Even though losing MI/WI/PA/GA/NC was disappointing, they were all still relatively close and I'm optimistic about our near-term prospects in those states in 2026 and 2028. Losing NV was also disappointing, but I saw that one coming (honestly still somewhat surprised it voted several points to the left of AZ).

Arizona and Texas just completely surprised me because my anecdotal sense of both states is that demographic changes were favoring Democrats (even though the data did not agree with my sentiment) and I just couldn't believe that new residents were more heavily Republican. I also just never imagined the Latino rightward trend accelerating more than it did from 2016 to 2020.

It's really worrying for the 2030s if these trends have any permanence (skeptical that Republicans can replicate these performances without Trump) as the electoral math will favor more of the sunbelt and Arizona in particular was a critical component of the future map, while Texas might be necessary if the Great Lakes start to really fall.

To be fair, I'm still not convinced that new Residents being more R-friendly were the reasons Trump did so well in these states - I'm not even convinced new Residents lean R at all.

It seems like there was 2 main things pushing the states rightwards:

1. The rightwards shift amongst Hispanic and Asian voters. Hispanic voters have already been heavily discussed, but Texas's Asian population is really underrated, and this was a massive part of the reason Trump overperformed big time in places like Fort Bend and Collin Counties.

2. Turnout differentials - especially in TX it appears turnout was massively skewed towards Republicans in a way that is unprecedented in recent Presidential cycles. Turnout in all the major blue cores including amongst white liberals was down from 2020, whereas turnout was at 2020 or higher in nearly the entire rest of the state.

As for the transplants are more Conservative thing, there still seems to be a strong correlation between a precinct seeing massive growth and shifting hard left at least in TX. You can't really tell at the County level, but around both metro Dallas and Houston there was a ring of precincts that swung noticeably to the left. I also don't believe it's a coincidence the fastest growing County in the State (and the Country), Kaufman County, also had one of the strongest shifts left. I think what this does tell us though is that favorable growth can be overpowered by other unfavorable shifts.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Pennsylvania. Casey lost his senate seat by 16k votes. 36k Harris voters in Phily alone forgot to vote for senate. On the same ballot!

Democrats now have 47 senate seats. Just one more makes retaking the chamber so much easier in 2026 or 2028. Now thats in doubt

[Mr. Smith]

Pennsylvania. Casey lost his senate seat by 16k votes. 36k Harris voters in Phily alone forgot to vote for senate. On the same ballot!

Democrats now have 47 senate seats. Just one more makes retaking the chamber so much easier in 2026 or 2028. Now thats in doubt

If 2026 is put to a near draw or a wave, 2028 is pretty much guaranteed to flip just because Vance is likely doomed, barring some kind of Ford/HW-esque miracle where he can make some voters think something new will happen when Trump inevitably tanks . The Class 3 Map is literally a D-favored map and has been ever since 2010.

If 2026 is another 2018, that's another story.

[President Johnson]

Pennsylvania. Casey lost his senate seat by 16k votes. 36k Harris voters in Phily alone forgot to vote for senate. On the same ballot!

Democrats now have 47 senate seats. Just one more makes retaking the chamber so much easier in 2026 or 2028. Now thats in doubt

This.

But Texas is also an incredible disappointment. I expected just a small shift in either direction and thought we'de be on track for Blexas in one or two more cycles.