Is Wisconsin the new Florida?

[William]

And by that I mean, the swing state that's always a razor-thin margin.

Wisconsin was decided by less than 40,000 votes in 5 of the last 7 elections on the Presidential level. The senate races as of late are all very close too. Even prior to 2000, Wisconsin was always pretty swingy for a while, and almost never gave decisive victories to one party.

For years, Florida was always the purplest state on the Presidential and Senatorial level. Now that has gone out the door, and it seems like Wisconsin will be the one that is decided by just a handful of votes.

I do think that Tim Walz had some sway in Wisconsin this time, being from neighboring Minnesota. Had Harris picked someone like Mark Kelly but still lost the election, Wisconsin may have gone more for Trump.

[dkxdjy]

Florida was always redder than the nation

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think it can ever be "the new Florida" because it just has so many fewer electoral votes. Both sides have very viables paths to winning elections without WI, whereas FL was very much a make or break for Republicans.

[TheReckoning]

Pennsylvania is a better analogue to Florida.

[TDAS04]

No. The margin of victory in Wisconsin is often razor-thin, but has been for plenty for candidates from both parties.

Florida, on the other hand, has screwed Democrats multiple times by the narrowest margins, and in the most disappointing, upsetting wins; beginning with the notorious 2000 presidential election and culminating in 2018. That year, the Democrats came within .4% of winning the governorship, at the same time that Rick Scott upset Bill Nelson by .1%. Democrats finally gave up the state after it swung Trump in 2020.

Even though Obama narrowly carried Florida twice, the state was icing on the cake each time, and it's EVs didn't win the Democrats any extra office they wouldn't have otherwise won without Florida.

[It's Time.]

Florida has always been a volatile state. Wisconsin on the other hand has always been <1% except for the Obama years

[Samof94]

Pennsylvania is a better analogue to Florida.

Given its size and having 2 large cities?

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Gore and Kerry won Wisconsin by narrower margins than Biden in 2020. The whole concept of the "Blue Wall" (and most similar discourses about other countries; watch the 2005–2017 BNP or UKIP vote shares in 2019 Tory gains in the UK, for instance) is really hogwash when you get down to it.

Even though Obama narrowly carried Florida twice, the state was icing on the cake each time, and it's EVs didn't win the Democrats any extra office they wouldn't have otherwise won without Florida.

A lot of election handicappers had Florida as Lean R in their final 2012 ratings. Paul Ryan's special brand of supply-side brain worms made a dent bigger and more unique than anyone was expecting.

[William]

Gore and Kerry won Wisconsin by narrower margins than Biden in 2020. The whole concept of the "Blue Wall" … is really hogwash when you get down to it.

All three "Blue Wall" states were considered swing states in 2000-04. It was only in 2012 after Obama had won them twice by larger margins did they start to say that Republicans will never win again because of the Blue Wall.