Why did Trump gain fewer raw votes in urban counties than Harris lost to Biden?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Why did Trump gain fewer raw votes in urban counties than Harris lost to Biden?
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Author Topic: Why did Trump gain fewer raw votes in urban counties than Harris lost to Biden?  (Read 155 times)
DrScholl
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« on: November 21, 2024, 05:54:57 PM »

Examples

Cook County, IL:
Harris -333,479
Trump +16,945

Harris County, TX:
Harris -115,823
Trump +19,416

The Bronx, NY:
Harris -110,989
Trump +23,802

If you assume that all that Trump gained was swing from Biden voters (it likely wasn't) you still have a considerable amount of decline in Democratic vote in comparison to previous presidential cycles. There are a lot of victory laps that Trump broke through in urban areas but in reality the actual gains were minimal and I think that should be acknowledge before pushing realignment theories. Why didn't Trump gain more raw votes in these areas?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2024, 05:57:54 PM »

For the Northern/West Coast megacities, I would suggest it's just post-COVID population decline.  IDK how to explain lower turnout in Houston though LOL.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2024, 06:20:43 PM »

A lot of Dems just didn’t turn out
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有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency
khuzifenq
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2024, 06:36:38 PM »

For the Northern/West Coast megacities, I would suggest it's just post-COVID population decline.  IDK how to explain lower turnout in Houston though LOL.

The magnitude of the dropoff exceeded post-2020 population decline almost everywhere.

A lot of Dems just didn’t turn out
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