Who won in these metro areas?

[iceman]

If you count the total votes in each metro area, who won the following?

Dallas
Houston
St. Louis
Kansas City
Indianapolis
Charlotte
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Miami
Salt Lake City

[lfromnj]

Miami using the standard big 3 is a Harris win. Expanding the metro up to Port St Lucie makes it a Trump win I believe .

[Skill and Chance]

Charlotte quite likely Harris
Indianapolis quite likely Trump

Kansas City probably Harris?

Houston would flip either way based on whether and how much of Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria you include.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of these depend on how you define them, but metro Houston seems like a clear Trump win given how Trump's margin in Montgomery County alone negates Harris's showing in Harris County - any reasonable definition of Houston metro would include most of if it not all of Montgomery County.

Dallas is also probably a Trump win unless you're using the bare minimum definition of just the big 4 counties (and even then Harris only barely won under that definition).

[kwabbit]

By Census MSA definitions:

These are estimates. I used Redistricter for 2020 results and then looked at county swings.

Dallas- Trump (flip)
Houston- Trump (flip)
St. Louis- Very likely Harris
Kansas City- Harris
Indianapolis- Trump
Charlotte- Trump (flip)
Milwaukee- Harris
Cincinnati- Trump
Miami- Harris
Salt Lake City- Harris

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

The Houston metro went for Trump. Simple math because Trump netted about 140,000 votes in Montgomery County, and Harris only netted about 85,000 if you combined Fort Bend County and Harris County, plus the surrounding counties vote Republican.

[iceman]

Sure Harris Wins

DC-Arlington-Alexandria
Atlanta
NYC metro
San Francisco-Oakland
Seattle-Tacoma
Detroit
Chicago
Portland, OR
Los Angeles
Minneapolis-St Paul
Raleigh-Durham
Boston
Atlanta
Austin
Denver

Sure Trump Wins

Nashville
San Antonio
Tampa-St. Peterburg
Phoenix
Jacksonville
Oklahoma City



unsure:

New Orleans
Louisville
Columbus, OH
Pittsburgh

[CentristRepublican]

If you count the total votes in each metro area, who won the following?

Dallas
Houston
St. Louis
Kansas City
Indianapolis
Charlotte
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Miami
Salt Lake City

My guesses:

Trump: Dallas, Houston, SLC, Cincinatti
Harris: SLC, KC, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Milwaukee
Other:
- Miami probably Trump? but I'm not certain

[CentristRepublican]

By Census MSA definitions:

These are estimates. I used Redistricter for 2020 results and then looked at county swings.

Dallas- Trump (flip)
Houston- Trump (flip)
St. Louis- Very likely Harris
Kansas City- Harris
Indianapolis- Trump
Charlotte- Trump (flip)
Milwaukee- Harris
Cincinnati- Trump
Miami- Harris
Salt Lake City- Harris

How is Charlotte R? And moreover, how tf is SLC for Harris? I figured even if it's just Salt Lake + Utah Counties the latter would outweigh the former.

[ProgressiveModerate]

By Census MSA definitions:

These are estimates. I used Redistricter for 2020 results and then looked at county swings.

Dallas- Trump (flip)
Houston- Trump (flip)
St. Louis- Very likely Harris
Kansas City- Harris
Indianapolis- Trump
Charlotte- Trump (flip)
Milwaukee- Harris
Cincinnati- Trump
Miami- Harris
Salt Lake City- Harris

How is Charlotte R? And moreover, how tf is SLC for Harris? I figured even if it's just Salt Lake + Utah Counties the latter would outweigh the former.

I think the census defines Provo as a seperate metro - they're definitions are often weird, arbitrary, and annoying.

For Charlotte, it's because of all the dense right leaning suburban and exurban counties around Mecklenburg.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Phoenix metro is easy to calculate since it's just literally Maricopa County. Technically it contains an additional 35k people in Apache Junction in Pinal County which is red, but that's basically a drop in the bucket to how powerful Maricopa is. While Bill Clinton won AZ he still lost metro Phoenix. The Republican presidential candidate has won the Phoenix metro area in every election since 1952 with the sole exception of 2020.

[kwabbit]

By Census MSA definitions:

These are estimates. I used Redistricter for 2020 results and then looked at county swings.

Dallas- Trump (flip)
Houston- Trump (flip)
St. Louis- Very likely Harris
Kansas City- Harris
Indianapolis- Trump
Charlotte- Trump (flip)
Milwaukee- Harris
Cincinnati- Trump
Miami- Harris
Salt Lake City- Harris

How is Charlotte R? And moreover, how tf is SLC for Harris? I figured even if it's just Salt Lake + Utah Counties the latter would outweigh the former.

Charlotte has quite reasonable MSA borders compared to some. Mecklenburg County is only about 41% of the metro area. The outlying counties are very red. Iredell and Rowan Counties in particular you might not think of as true Charlotte suburban counties, but they are included.

[New World Man]

Depends what you consider metro Milwaukee. If you put Kenosha County and Walworth in(as some state agencies do)it would probably go to Trump.

[ottermax]

A big metro that flipped is the Inland Empire.

[Tekken_Guy]

A big metro that flipped is the Inland Empire.

Well that’s just seen as an extension of LA by most people.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

It appears Trump won the Charlotte MSA as a whole but lost it in NC specifically, which makes sense given the Harris swings in quite a few suburban counties on the NC side.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Sure Trump Wins

Nashville
San Antonio
Tampa-St. Peterburg
Phoenix
Jacksonville
Oklahoma City

Nashville has a unified government with Davidson County. Which Harris won. Define Nashville metro area? Nashville has been growing so fast nearly all of middle Tennessee is part of the metro area now

[Big Jim]

Harris won Miami and Kansas City?

[CentristRepublican]

Harris won Miami and Kansas City?

KC doesn't surprise me. That area has been zooming left (probably stayed static / trended left this year too) and most of the inner suburban counties are reasonably moderate (or just completely outweighed by the core urban counties).

Miami was probably a question on which had a bigger net raw vote, Miami-Dade or Broward, since PB was basically tied.