Call the last 3 House races

[CentristRepublican]

Notably, CA-13 was the closest House race in 2022 and IA-01 (then numbered IA-02) was the closest House race in 2020.

Right now, Duarte and MMM are up 50.1-49.9% while Steel is down 50.1-49.9% against Tran. The former two races are very nearly done, while CA-45 still has nearly 10% of the vote to go.

[Tekken_Guy]

Notably, CA-13 was the closest House race in 2022

Second closest. CO-03 was closer.

[Compuzled_One]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

[Tekken_Guy]

Miller-Meeks and Tran are clearly on track to win, but CA-13 is basically a jump ball at this point.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Miller-Meeks and Tran win. No idea about CA-13. Gun to my head, Duarte wins by 56 votes.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Miller-Meeks has literally had the lead since election night.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Duarte, Miller-Meeks, and Tran.

[Coldstream]

My instinct is Dems win the California two and MMM just squeaks by in Iowa.

[Skill and Chance]

IA-01 is done counting, so MMM has won unless there's a triple digit reporting error discovered in the recount (not impossible, but highly unlikely within a single congressional district).  Tran pretty clearly wins CA-45.  I want to see one more Merced drop in CA-13, but if it's mainly provisionals and not late mail left everywhere, I think Duarte pulls it out. 

[Talleyrand]

Duarte, Tran, Miller-Meeks.

Looks like PA-07 was the tipping point. Wild lost by 1 point.

[หมูเด้ง]

If Derek dyes his hair red, would he be Tran ginger?

[Vosem]

Miller-Meeks has pretty clearly won absent some kind of counting error. It's close enough that that's not out of the question, but it's closer to Safe R than Likely.

Tran seems pretty clearly favored against Steel; he hasn't lost a vote drop since Election Night and it seems like there's still 2,000 regular votes or something. Apparently there are reasons to think what's out isn't as good for him as what's in, but I'd still put him at Likely D, though closer to Leans than Safe.

Duarte/Gray feels like it's headed for almost an exact tie; extrapolating out 2022 patterns you come out to a Duarte victory by a double-digit number of votes. I think I would very slightly rather be Duarte, and I voted for him in the poll, but this is about as close as it gets. (Incidentally, while Duarte's win looked like one of the most impressive Republican gains in 2022 -- this seat was Biden+13 and I think the most pro-Biden seat to flip red outside NY -- Gray's victory in 2024, if it comes to pass, would I think be the only Democratic gain in a Trump '24 seat. Steel I think is fighting for survival in a seat that voted for Harris).

[politics_king]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

[New World Man]

Lord is Meeks a mediocre member of congress. No scandal,but barely wins in a district Trump won by 8 or 9.

[หมูเด้ง]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

I'm guessing the House margin precludes the repeal of the ACA and IRA, but they probably come up with a box of assorted treats for their constituents, mostly in the form of small austerity programs and tax cuts/loans.

[Zenobiyl]

Meeks will squeak by, and the other two seats go dem. 220-215

[Steve from Lambeth]

Duarte, Tran, Miller-Meeks.

Looks like PA-07 was the tipping point. Wild lost by 1 point.

[RJ]

I said Gray and Tran in CA. Tran is the more certain of the 2 and honestly, Gray-Duarte could go either way. But hey, it's California...

The Iowa seat will almost certainly go to Miller-Meeks.

[Skill and Chance]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

Oh the House is gone in 2026.  Trump would have to be the hero who personally negotiated the end of WWIII or something for R's to hold control LOL.

[Compuzled_One]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

Oh the House is gone in 2026.  Trump would have to be the hero who personally negotiated the end of WWIII or something for R's to hold control LOL.

I do think it's about a 90% chance the GOP goes down in the House, but assuming Johnson manages to hold it together and pass as much of the GOP platform as he can (with Trump also passing anything Johnson can't), the GOP would be able to hold the House assuming they also run a good campaign.

Also, I'm beginning to think Duarte wins, since he didn't go down much if at all last drop.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

Oh the House is gone in 2026.  Trump would have to be the hero who personally negotiated the end of WWIII or something for R's to hold control LOL.

I do think it's about a 90% chance the GOP goes down in the House, but assuming Johnson manages to hold it together and pass as much of the GOP platform as he can (with Trump also passing anything Johnson can't), the GOP would be able to hold the House assuming they also run a good campaign.

Also, I'm beginning to think Duarte wins, since he didn't go down much if at all last drop.

The last update was fine for Gray.

[Compuzled_One]

Gray and Tran win thanks to late ballots leaning to the Democrats, Miller-Meeks pull through because there's not enough of those.

220-215, 53-47. Focus on the special elections and midterms, get a clear message and focus on the working class American. You have to. Economy, Domestic and Foreign Policy are the issues people care about.

Oh the House is gone in 2026.  Trump would have to be the hero who personally negotiated the end of WWIII or something for R's to hold control LOL.

I do think it's about a 90% chance the GOP goes down in the House, but assuming Johnson manages to hold it together and pass as much of the GOP platform as he can (with Trump also passing anything Johnson can't), the GOP would be able to hold the House assuming they also run a good campaign.

Also, I'm beginning to think Duarte wins, since he didn't go down much if at all last drop.

The last update was fine for Gray.

Based on what I saw, it was basically 50/50, so while I think he can still win, the late dumps are slightly more likely to just confirm Duarte's small lead.

[CentristRepublican]

Miller-Meeks has pretty clearly won absent some kind of counting error. It's close enough that that's not out of the question, but it's closer to Safe R than Likely.

Tran seems pretty clearly favored against Steel; he hasn't lost a vote drop since Election Night and it seems like there's still 2,000 regular votes or something. Apparently there are reasons to think what's out isn't as good for him as what's in, but I'd still put him at Likely D, though closer to Leans than Safe.

Duarte/Gray feels like it's headed for almost an exact tie; extrapolating out 2022 patterns you come out to a Duarte victory by a double-digit number of votes. I think I would very slightly rather be Duarte, and I voted for him in the poll, but this is about as close as it gets. (Incidentally, while Duarte's win looked like one of the most impressive Republican gains in 2022 -- this seat was Biden+13 and I think the most pro-Biden seat to flip red outside NY -- Gray's victory in 2024, if it comes to pass, would I think be the only Democratic gain in a Trump '24 seat. Steel I think is fighting for survival in a seat that voted for Harris).

Is it confirmed that CA-13 flipped to Trump or is that your estimation?

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Gray wins, Tran wins, and Miller-Meeks wins.

[Mr. Smith]

MM, Tran, and Duarte.