Butterfly effects that led to Trump winning

[Tekken_Guy]

What butterfly effects do you think ultimately led to Trump’s victory?

[Progressive Pessimist]

-Trump not being convicted in the Senate for the insurrection, which leaves him able to run again.

-Biden appointing Garland as Attorney General who drags his feet in taking too long to appoint Smith.

-The miserable summer of 2021 for Biden of the Afghan withdrawal, new COVID variants, agenda lag in Congress, and inflation leading to his administration's enduring unpopularity.

-The Russian invasion of Ukraine initially uniting the country behind the Ukrainians and creating Biden's resolve to aid them. Only for the Russian/right wing narrative to set in and make it a divisive issue that makes resentful of the resources being given to Zelensky. And on top of all that, gas and grain prices increase adding to inflation woes.

-The 2022 midterms going better than expected for Democrats, in spite of everything, giving Biden and other high positioned Democrats the impression that the administration isn't as unpopular as the still Trumpian GOP thereby keeping Biden in the running for the 2024 nomination. When in reality the strong showing for Democrats was almost solely due to the better educated, higher propensity electorate.

-The war in Gaza starting after October 7, implicating the Biden administration in Netanyahu's violent retribution due to its support. Thus causing dissatisfied reactions from both the pro-Israeli dominionists of the right and pro-Palestinian activists of the left.

-The Hur Report.

-The assassination attempt on Trump.

-The delay tactics by Trump and his lawyers working to the point that the Supreme Court sided with them.

-Biden not being pressured or convinced into dropping out until the disastrous June debate, and even then, it took three more weeks for him to officially back out.

-The Harris campaign not getting the debate to happen closer to election day.

-Other, rather subjective, campaign missteps by them which may have had an impact, if at all.

In general, the Biden administration had horrible luck and timing with things. I personally think it did its best under the circumstances, especially the ones they inherited from Trump with the pandemic and economic situation. I'm in the minority though, clearly, and Americans became used to Trump's larger- than-life self-promotion and shamelessness that eventually caused a memory-holing of the first Trump term.

It was another perfect storm for Trump like in 2016. The only reason it wasn't worse was because Biden dropped out of the race.

So, if we're lucky, the bright spot of the 2022 midterms' results for Democrats in many states and the actions of the Biden administration over four years, like with appointing Justices, may provide a small buffer to the incoming Trump administration. I certainly hope these last four years weren't for nothing and didn't just delay the inevitable.

[Pericles]

It was random bad luck that meant Aileen Cannon got the documents case. We'll never know if the case might have gotten somewhere or had an impact on the election otherwise.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bump.

[Brad Note]

Biden being exhausted and physically ill on June 27.

It may be tough to remember as it seems like 100 years ago, but Biden's chances of winning reelection actually seemed pretty decent up until that first debate. The economy was on the mend, the Dobbs ruling was still very salient among suburban women, and Trump got convicted in NY. The debate completely changed the conversation, and it provided Trump the momentum that he carried thru to Election Day. The excitement around Harris in August was just a temporary sugar high.

[Samof94]

Where does Bird Flu fall in all of this???

[Tekken_Guy]

Where does Bird Flu fall in all of this???

It doesn’t. It wasn’t really a topic of conversation this campaign cycle.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Biden ignoring Larry Summers' warnings over the inflationary risks of ARP.
Biden undoing Trump's border policies like Remain in Mexico.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

What butterfly effects do you think ultimately led to Trump’s victory?

Successful persecution of Hunter Biden to cause significant stress for an already at his limit Joe Biden.

Does it count as a "butterfly effect" when Trump orchestrated it himself, though?

[Calgacus]

I think the turning point, ironically enough, was when the first indictments for Trump started dropping. There was a brief period after the midterms where Trump seemed vulnerable and the indictments caused Republicans to rally round the orange man, totally wiping out that possibility.

[Mr. Smith]

I voted Democratic, this has always gone badly for Dems against Trump.  So to all Biden-stans, you're welcome.

Of course, I'm sure Dems allowing some guy named Tim as No. 2 didn't help matters much either.

[Goldwater]

I voted Democratic, this has always gone badly for Dems against Trump.  So to all Biden-stans, you're welcome.

Of course, I'm sure Dems allowing some guy named Tim as No. 2 didn't help matters much either.

On a similar note, this is the first Presidential election where we both voted the same way, and that can't be good for the cosmic balance of the universe.

[EastOfEden]

I voted Democratic, this has always gone badly for Dems against Trump.  So to all Biden-stans, you're welcome.

Of course, I'm sure Dems allowing some guy named Tim as No. 2 didn't help matters much either.

When Walz was picked I had a momentary panic about "Seriously? A Democratic female presidential candidate picking a boring white guy named Tim from a safe blue state? We've seen this movie before." Other people on here calmed me down, but maybe I was right.

[VBM]

Jim Clyburn endorsing Joe Biden for president prior to the 2020 South Caroline primary.

[Beet]

Obviously him not being assasinated in summer 2024 was the big one.

Other than that, the more time goes on, the more I feel that he was on track to win because of deep forces in society and his personality, and that individual events that could have been different would not have changed that. For example, if James Comey had not released the Comey Letter in 2016, or if Charles Delavan had not told John Podesta's Chief of Staff that a phishing email was legitimate, then perhaps he would have lost in 2016, but he likely would have come back to win in 2020.

That would have been perhaps an even bigger win for him -- why? First of all, Hillary Clinton was deeply unpopular and the GOP was only one chamber away from having a enough state legislatures to call a constitutional convention and have ALEC rewrite the Constitution. They would almost surely have secured this ability, along with big wins, in the 2018 midterms. Had Covid happened in 2020, the Republicans would have been in control of the House. Do you think they would have passed a huge stimulus to hand people checks to make up for lockdowns? Hell no. Essentially, you'd be looking at a massive Trump win in 2020 with maybe 60 Senate seats and 250+ House seats, not to mention Republican ability to rewrite the Constitution. Seen that way, then perhaps Clinton's loss in 2016 saved democracy, because the Republicans can't rewrite the Constitution today and Trump will probably have to step down in 2028.

So basically, you can go down a lot of rabbit holes, but ultimately, I do think that individual events (except for him dodging assasination) are somewhat overrated when it comes to Trump's trajectory. He is actually a very good fit for our political culture and there were already hints of this decades ago.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Jim Clyburn endorsing Joe Biden for president prior to the 2020 South Caroline primary.

Indirectly this.  I think that, if there isn't the "rally around Biden" thing in the two weeks before covid, Bernie probably wins the 2020 primary.  Trump handily defeats Bernie in the general election.  My guess is a Democrat then wins in 2024, probably against Mike Pence.

[Averroës]

The entire past decade in federal politics looks completely different if Beau Biden had not been struck dead in his prime by an aggressive brain tumor.

[Pericles]

If Cal Cunningham kept it in his pants, the Biden presidency could have been quite a bit more successful. Even just one more seat might have made a difference, as Sinema and Manchin had contradictory objections to Build Back Better. Democrats wouldn't necessarily have won by delivering more direct benefits to voters, but it would have been a plus.

[Samof94]

Where does the GOP underperforming in 2022 fall?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Barack Obama picking Joe Biden as his running mate in 2008.

[पिकाचु]

Where does Bird Flu fall in all of this???

It doesn’t. It wasn’t really a topic of conversation this campaign cycle.

Low-key, it kind of did matter. No bird flu maybe means the price of eggs doesn't spike as much in 2021-22 and inflation becomes less of an issue.

[TDAS04]

Barack Obama picking Joe Biden as his running mate in 2008.

Democrats nominating Barack Obama instead of Hillary Clinton in 2008.

[Roll Roons]

Where does Bird Flu fall in all of this???

It doesn’t. It wasn’t really a topic of conversation this campaign cycle.

Low-key, it kind of did matter. No bird flu maybe means the price of eggs doesn't spike as much in 2021-22 and inflation becomes less of an issue.

Eggs were far from the only thing that had a spike in prices at that time.

[पिकाचु]

Where does Bird Flu fall in all of this???

It doesn’t. It wasn’t really a topic of conversation this campaign cycle.

Low-key, it kind of did matter. No bird flu maybe means the price of eggs doesn't spike as much in 2021-22 and inflation becomes less of an issue.

Eggs were far from the only thing that had a spike in prices at that time.

Obv it was part of a broader trend, but egg demand is inelastic and consumers are going to be more sensitive (and mad) about price increases with them compared to the vast majority of other things we buy.

[It's Time.]

Democrats nominating HRC in 2016, who was perhaps the worst presidential candidate in modern presidential history. 2016 was Trump at his most beatable and we blew it. That was the last chance to end Trumpism as a political force, now it can’t be stopped. Trump was likely always “destined” for a second term after winning in 2016.

Under normal circumstances that would have been in 2020, but BLM and Covid destroying the economy allowed Biden to win by a narrow margin. Since Trump lost in 2020 he won in 2024.