What are some of the most shocking aspects of this 2024 election?

[iceman]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

[qrdlelections]

Great question!  

For me though, the most shocking aspect, is how very normal and boring (thankfully!) the whole thing has been.

Oh that and selzer totally self immolating.

[Crumpets]

Personally, one I think is worth elaborating on is the trends around the DC area. I'm not surprised that it, like everywhere else, swung to Trump. But the fact that DC proper, Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince George's County were the most left-trending counties in the area while Montgomery, Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties trended right - especially in the context of the "Harris held up with the wealthy and educated but couldn't turn out working class Dems and minorities" narrative - is absolutely wild.

[BaldEagle1991]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

You are all right on all of them. But I bolded a correction. It went back to 2012 levels.

[Matty]

Wisconsin being only trump +1 despite Ohio and Iowa being +13

[Roll Roons]

It has to be the NJ result.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I have long been a believer that Blue Texas is much more of a pipe dream in the near future than many on here.  

But holy cow, Trump getting George Bush level numbers in the suburbs and the metropolitan centers is shocking.  At best, I figured the trends would stagnate, MAYBE shift back a bit towards the GOP.  

Though I guess I shouldn't be shocked -- as I said, one of my parents voted for Trump after swearing he/she would never even consider it in 2016 and 2020.  Two of my brothers, too.  And even I was leaning towards voting for him up until election day.  

Trump broke through with swaths of voters while the Dems didn't do enough to keep their votes.  

The extent to which federal-level Dems collapsed in TX. Not going to lie I totally expected TX to swing D before seeing the April 2024 Economist voter demographics model- which looked not-great for Dems in TX. The NYT/Siena polls of TX were also consistently pretty bad for Harris, certainly worse than my priors would've suggested.

Multnomah County outright swinging D- there's basically no scenario where I would've expected Trump's percentage of the vote there would go down, even if Harris won in a landslide.

Harris not flipping a single county from Trump 2020. Pacific County WA was heartbreakingly close.

After that, maybe how close NJ was, and then the extent of the D dropoff in CA.

[William]

Trump coming within 6 points of winning New Jersey but still not capturing New Hampshire and barely moving the needle in Maine.

People here scoffed at Trump visiting NH, but I had been thinking all along that campaigning there just before election day was a good idea, because it's one of the very few states that has no early voting. NH voters take the hands-on campaigning there seriously and typically reward it.

I figured Texas would be around 54-44... didn't think it was likely to reach 2012 levels but I'm glad we did!

Massachusetts is so blue that a shift for Trump from 32% to 36% seems a little insignificant when compared to NY, IL and CA. MA is a very educated state, but also has a high WWC vote, which is why it became a Democratic stronghold long before the other New England states. In theory, Trump should have more appeal in MA than the numbers are showing, but there's no way they would campaign there... waste of money at the end of the day.

[Averroës]

New Hampshire appears to have cast more votes than Maine. Not shocking given population trends, but it might be a first. Will have to check on whether that factoid survives certification.

[All Along The Watchtower]

- New Jersey
- Minnesota being closer than Arizona
- The size of the Florida and Texas swings to Trump
- The swing to Trump being greater in both sides’ safe states

[iceman]

- New Jersey
- Minnesota being closer than Arizona
- The size of the Florida and Texas swings to Trump
- The swing to Trump being greater in both sides’ safe states

The hard Florida swing to right is not actually surprising, the 2022 results already foretold that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm honestly vexed at how Harris managed to win Lackawanna County while losing other major Pennsylvania counties.

[It's Time.]

I'm honestly vexed at how Harris managed to win Lackawanna County while losing other major Pennsylvania counties.

Biden won Lackawanna county by a lot in 2020, the margin was too high for Trump to overcome

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Personally, one I think is worth elaborating on is the trends around the DC area. I'm not surprised that it, like everywhere else, swung to Trump. But the fact that DC proper, Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince George's County were the most left-trending counties in the area while Montgomery, Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties trended right - especially in the context of the "Harris held up with the wealthy and educated but couldn't turn out working class Dems and minorities" narrative - is absolutely wild.

Not that surprising. PG is very black and highly educated black specifically, I doubt that group swung right. But the exit polls showing Harris holding up with college whites is NOT TRUE. You can look at the precinct data. She clearly lost ground there too, but not as much as with Hispanics and Asians.

[Skill and Chance]

Personally, one I think is worth elaborating on is the trends around the DC area. I'm not surprised that it, like everywhere else, swung to Trump. But the fact that DC proper, Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince George's County were the most left-trending counties in the area while Montgomery, Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties trended right - especially in the context of the "Harris held up with the wealthy and educated but couldn't turn out working class Dems and minorities" narrative - is absolutely wild.

Not that surprising. PG is very black and highly educated black specifically, I doubt that group swung right. But the exit polls showing Harris holding up with college whites is NOT TRUE. You can look at the precinct data. She clearly lost ground there too, but not as much as with Hispanics and Asians.

Yes, this is pretty clear.  Also, this arrangement suggests the cutoff for college + white voters swinging right is roughly the line where single family homes become dominant in a metro, at least for non-Southern metros with meaningful public transit.  This was unexpected.  I think a lot of people expected the outer suburbs to trend left and the inner suburbs to stagnate or trend right.  The opposite happened. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

My thoughts of OP's points:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin

Mostly yes - not surprised it was closer or the areas where Harris collapsed, but assumed other parts of NJ would do more to offset it

2. Wisconsin barely moving right

The bigger surprise to me was WI actually being the most left-leaning of the big 7.

3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania

I thought he was favored but this wasn't a shock for me - always through Casey's crossover appeal was really overrated and said that if Trump was even narrowly carrying PA he'd be in real danger

4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right

Yes, and as another poster pointed out some of the internal discrepancies between how some of the metro DC counties swung. Really shocking to see some of the most college educated and politically engaged/connected parts of the Country shift so far right.

5. Harris not flipping a single county

Definitely - even if she was doing this bad nationally I would've assumed there would've been some oddball out there, but I guess not. In general, I think this point connects to how relatively universal the 2020-->2024 swing was.

6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels

This one just isn't true. Yes, Trump's + 14 margin was pretty shocking, as well as the right shifts in certain urban/suburban counties, but TX still voted to the left of where it did in most pre-2012 elections relative to the nation (pre-2016 TX was regularly like 20 points to the right of the nation). Heck, Allred put up one of the best showings for a TX Dem relative to the nation in ages (even better than Beto 2018). I think people forget that the Country as a whole lurched like 6% to the right.

7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania

Not too shocking given how heavily both sides invested in the state - Harris came pretty close to Biden's 2020 total as well.

8. Trump actually winning the popular vote

Yes, but only modestly surprising for me - always had it in the realistic range of outcomes.

9. Massachusetts swinging hard right

This one definitely and even made a thread about it because I'm still a little confused as to why it specifically, a relatively white college educated states with a high propensity Dem base, swung so hard right.

10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%

As a New Yorker - I saw this one coming. Didn't expect it to be quite as narrow as Harris + 12 but always said Trump would massively overperform and NYC and possibly even reach Zeldin margins in many communities, while Harris would hold up largely fine upstate.

11. Illinois with only 10% margin

Illinois margin has since been padded such that it's now Harris + 11, closer than most expected but not really unexpected given the national picture.

12. Western North Carolina swining DEM

Not too surprising when looking at the 2022 results where Beasley and other down ballot Dems overperformed in parts of Western NC despite relatively little investment in the state. There seems to be a sorting of college educated and retired liberals into some of the areas of Western NC and slowly pushing it left.

13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC

I wouldn't quite say he "almost won it", but his performance was still quite surprising to me - I think I overrated the number of "Haley Republicans" that existed in this type of place who would ultimately not vote for Trump.

14. Arizona not actually being that close

This one 100%. I don't think anyone saw Trump + 6 AZ incoming, myself included. I think many falsely assumed that AZ couldn't revert to Romney 2012 numbers because Trump couldn't get Romney 2012 numbers out of key places like the Pheonix suburbs. While Trump still didn't get Romney 2012 numbers out of these places, his massively overperformance of Hispanics and generally unfavorable turnout differentials in the state for Democrats allowed him to win by a pretty hefty margin.

15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008

Not too shocking given it's the Central Valley - there were warning signs it would swing right and I was honestly confused why many of these Central Valley counties didn't shift further right in 2020.

16. All states swinging against the DEMS

Ye, and ties into point #5. The shock is less because of Trump's national margin but more the relative uniformity of the swing.

17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland

I guess, but he already came fairly close in 2020 and that's a bit of an arbitrary benchmark in an arbitrary state.

18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying

This too, I was a big believer the tipping point seat for the Senate would end up being something like TX-Sen, and am surprised how well Tester and Brown held up given the national circumstances - there performances were basically what I roughly thought would occur but in a D+3 national environment.

19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia

Not too shocking given how fast and rapidly diversifying metro Atlanta is growing. Places like Henry County were pretty much always going to swing left no matter what because of how rapidly it's black population is growing. Honestly what was more surprising to me was Gwinnett County swinging right as Dems have made pretty consistent gains there since the early 2000s, even in cycles where Republicans made gains on persuasions with key demographics within the County (i.e. Romney 2012 swinging back southern suburban whites).

20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

Yes - I expected Trump would flip a few more counties, but Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb all flipping were pretty shocking - I kind of assumed we'd start to see a bigger divide between how the urban and rural parts of RGV voted but that didn't really manifest this cycle.

[LBJer]

That there are so many Americans who care about democracy so little. 

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Personally, one I think is worth elaborating on is the trends around the DC area. I'm not surprised that it, like everywhere else, swung to Trump. But the fact that DC proper, Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince George's County were the most left-trending counties in the area while Montgomery, Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties trended right - especially in the context of the "Harris held up with the wealthy and educated but couldn't turn out working class Dems and minorities" narrative - is absolutely wild.

Not that surprising. PG is very black and highly educated black specifically, I doubt that group swung right. But the exit polls showing Harris holding up with college whites is NOT TRUE. You can look at the precinct data. She clearly lost ground there too, but not as much as with Hispanics and Asians.

Yes, this is pretty clear.  Also, this arrangement suggests the cutoff for college + white voters swinging right is roughly the line where single family homes become dominant in a metro, at least for non-Southern metros with meaningful public transit.  This was unexpected.  I think a lot of people expected the outer suburbs to trend left and the inner suburbs to stagnate or trend right.  The opposite happened. 

Very curious to see how this played out in smaller metros like Seattle and Portland that have urban growth boundaries. I think the expectation for inner suburbs trending R (or at least giving lower raw D vote margins) relative to outer suburbs was based on them being more heavily nonwhite and closer to urban cores and associated governance problems.

[CentristRepublican]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

I agree with the ones I bolded, basically. #2 was a pleasant surprise under the circumstances; #20 was not what I was expecting but I also can't say it was shocking after 2020.

#5 and #16 were mindblowing and I think disappointing to all of us just because we are politics buffs and love to analyze countervailing trends.

+ One thing that stood out to me in addition to those above, and that's still in my mind, is that it took a while for Rhode Island to get called (was ultimately Harris+14, so not really that terrible, but still!)

[iceman]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

I agree with the ones I bolded, basically. #2 was a pleasant surprise under the circumstances; #20 was not what I was expecting but I also can't say it was shocking after 2020.

#5 and #16 were mindblowing and I think disappointing to all of us just because we are politics buffs and love to analyze countervailing trends.

+ One thing that stood out to me in addition to those above, and that's still in my mind, is that it took a while for Rhode Island to get called (was ultimately Harris+14, so not really that terrible, but still!)

Rhode Island has been slowly trending R since 2012. It no longer votes to the left of Massachusetts and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes much more closer in the next few cycles.

[Devils30]

1. The popular vote/electoral vote gap being completely eliminated. PA will probably end around 0.1-0.15% red than the PV, virtually nothing. GA being within 1% and NC within 2% point to future Dems who win the PV by 2-3% being absolutely fine, unlike 2016-2020.

2. The reversal of negative trends for the GOP. Places like Collin County that had trended extremely Dem actually trended R and GOP made gains in long-lost suburbs like Bergen, Nassau counties. If the party can keep gaining with Jewish/Asian voters, the emerging Dem majority is in the grave and 2024 can be 1992 like in realigning coalitions. This would eventually make NJ/NY in play and FL would have a 28-4 congressional map in 2030s.

3. The realization that polarization might have peaked in 2020. Trump getting 27% in the Bronx, winning Passaic County, NJ and outright winning south Texas Hispanics while white voter swings were minor is not exactly the stuff civil wars are made out of. Our coalitions are constantly in flux and the GOP might be just fine in a diverse America. MAGA may have begun as a white nationalist heavy movement but it has transformed into a much broader coalition.

[CentristRepublican]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

I agree with the ones I bolded, basically. #2 was a pleasant surprise under the circumstances; #20 was not what I was expecting but I also can't say it was shocking after 2020.

#5 and #16 were mindblowing and I think disappointing to all of us just because we are politics buffs and love to analyze countervailing trends.

+ One thing that stood out to me in addition to those above, and that's still in my mind, is that it took a while for Rhode Island to get called (was ultimately Harris+14, so not really that terrible, but still!)

Rhode Island has been slowly trending R since 2012. It no longer votes to the left of Massachusetts and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes much more closer in the next few cycles.

Definitely, but still, the fact that a Biden+21 state wasn’t called immediately or even almost immediately and instead took a while…man did that  me up and tell me that we were in for a bad, bad night.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

For me:

1. New Jersey ended up with 5%+ margin
2. Wisconsin barely moving right
3. Casey losing in Pennsylvania
4. DC Suburbs in Virginia swinging hard right
5. Harris not flipping a single county
6. Texas going back to pre-2008 levels
7. Trump receiving the most votes ever in the history of Pennsylvania
8. Trump actually winning the popular vote
9. Massachusetts swinging hard right
10. Upstate New York holding well for Harris, not many county flips but Trump still managed to lose NY only by 11%
11. Illinois with only 10% margin
12. Western North Carolina swining DEM
13. Trump almost flipping Charleston county, SC
14. Arizona not actually being that close
15. Trump flipping several counties in California that had remain static since 2008
16. All states swinging against the DEMS
17. Trump getting 1 Million votes in Maryland
18. Montana senate race ended up closer than polls were saying
19. Harris improving much in metro Atlanta as a whole but still lost Georgia
20. Rio grande valley being almost red in the map

anything more to add?

I agree with the ones I bolded, basically. #2 was a pleasant surprise under the circumstances; #20 was not what I was expecting but I also can't say it was shocking after 2020.

#5 and #16 were mindblowing and I think disappointing to all of us just because we are politics buffs and love to analyze countervailing trends.

+ One thing that stood out to me in addition to those above, and that's still in my mind, is that it took a while for Rhode Island to get called (was ultimately Harris+14, so not really that terrible, but still!)

Rhode Island has been slowly trending R since 2012. It no longer votes to the left of Massachusetts and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes much more closer in the next few cycles.

Definitely, but still, the fact that a Biden+21 state wasn’t called immediately or even almost immediately and instead took a while…man did that  me up and tell me that we were in for a bad, bad night.

Pretty sure it took some time to get called in 2020 too. E-Day is typically reported first

[Mr. Smith]

NC broke its cycle and voted a mere 1.7 right of the nation instead of nearly 6, meaning it voted left of Nevada.

[Devils30]

NC broke its cycle and voted a mere 1.7 right of the nation instead of nearly 6, meaning it voted left of Nevada.

It actually voted to the right of NV by 0.11% in the end. But it was a solid Dem trend and a good sign for blue team in the future in a narrow popular vote Dem win.