POLL: Rate VA-02 in 2026

[MargieCat]

How do you think Jen Kiggans fares if she seeks re-election?

Sam Shirazi thinks it's a heavy lift in 2026. While the lines are less favorable than they were before redistricting, it's still a swing district.

It seems that the district narrowly went to Trump by a couple hundred votes, but Kiggans won by 4.2 points.

Missy Cotter Smasal was not the best recruit out there. She was probably the best we could have gotten in what was not expected to be a blue wave. The only opposition she had in the primary was a nobody named Jake Denton.

Who could Democrats recruit here? Aaron Rouse flipped Kiggan's old senate seat, but he is running for Lieutenant Governor.

It's probably better to have a Navy person run, which almost every congressman here has been.

Could Elaine Luria make a comeback? Was she an underperformer or overperformer?

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1858317340498129213

[Tekken_Guy]

Rouse could easily drop down here if asked by the DCCC.

[They are eating the pets]

I would have thought that she would dominate this year. While her result is not bad, it is easily sinkable in a wave year.

Tilt D for now. It is too early to make predictions right now because Trump hasn't even taken office yet.

[Zedonathin2020]

Tossup. Possibly Tilt R but I can see it going blue in a wave year in 2026 or 2028

[Tekken_Guy]

Assuming 2026 is a good year for Democrats, then year I’d say tilt/lean D.

If it’s a reverse 2022 type year then Kiggans could easily hold on.

[Storr]

Rouse could easily drop down here if asked by the DCCC.

He'd be a great candidate, imo. The Lt. Gov. office is really not a great job, you have basically no power and unlike the VP you don't get travel around the World as basically a global ambassador for the US. Sure the LG can break ties in the state Senate, but the VA Senate is not tied (21D - 19R) and won't be up for election until 2027.

[The Mikado]

Starts Lean R but has potential to move D with good recruitment.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

An easy Lean D.

[New World Man]

You start with tilt R and see what happens.

[henster]

Michael Feggans seems the most likely recruit assuming he keeps his delegate seat next year. He's a black air force vet who is a small business owner seems like a perfect fit for the district.

Rouse obviously would be the top recruit but like mentioned before he is running for Lt. Gov with his eyes clearly set on Gov in 2027. However Lt Gov. primary is pretty crowded right now and he very likely could lose or win and still run for VA-02 although I'm not sure how voters would feel about jumping offices like that. 

[Pericles]

An easy Lean D.

Sometimes the bloomer is right.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michael Feggans seems the most likely recruit assuming he keeps his delegate seat next year. He's a black air force vet who is a small business owner seems like a perfect fit for the district.

Rouse obviously would be the top recruit but like mentioned before he is running for Lt. Gov with his eyes clearly set on Gov in 2027. However Lt Gov. primary is pretty crowded right now and he very likely could lose or win and still run for VA-02 although I'm not sure how voters would feel about jumping offices like that. 

Plans can change, you know.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

The Democrats only lost by four in a Republican year with a mediocre candidate? Am I missing something?

This is clearly Lean D at the very least lol

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Tilt D. She’d have a decent chance against a bad opponent, but against a competent opponent, she’s going to have a very hard time.