When will FL-23 flip to the GOP?

[Tekken_Guy]

When will FL-23 flip to the GOP? Very red-trending seat in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Moskowitz is done in the next Democratic midterm.

[Ljube]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual

[Ljube]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual

As usual, I absolutely know what I'm talking about, while you have no idea.

[MargieCat]

I could see Moskowitz holding the seat until the next Democratic president is elected, at which point he probably doesn't seek re-election in the red wave.

Maybe he lobbies said Democratic president for a job in the administration and retires before that.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual

As usual, I absolutely know what I'm talking about, while you have no idea.

You mean like when you were convinced Trump was going to be acquitted because Todd Blanche called Michael Cohen “The GLOAT”

[Pericles]

Moskowitz is done in the next Democratic midterm.

He's likely aiming for bigger and better things. I don't see a presidential run working out but maybe a cabinet position, or he could get lucky and run when a perfect storm happens to flip a statewide office.

[Zedonathin2020]

He's screwed in a 2030 Democratic midterm

I also believe that if Harris was elected there was a high chance of him losing in 2026 or 2028

[Devils30]

If the Dems get AOC in 2028 and keep smearing Jews, he is at the top of the list for party-switchers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a random side question but are FL Republicans theoretically allowed to do mid-decade redistricting? There's an irony in that because FL Republicans have done so well, their gerrymander actually helps Democrats win in seats they might lose on a fair map.

[lfromnj]

This is a random side question but are FL Republicans theoretically allowed to do mid-decade redistricting? There's an irony in that because FL Republicans have done so well, their gerrymander actually helps Democrats win in seats they might lose on a fair map.

If they felt really bold there’s a lawsuit over the Collier Hialeah seat. They could settle the lawsuit and redraw the map .  Other than that I’m not sure but I doubt the legislature wants to restart that process especially now with a weakened  lame duck DeSantis .

[Vosem]

It's still a Harris seat and Moskowitz is a pretty strong incumbent! This area is trending R pretty fast because of the identities of the newcomers (and this is a trend that predated Trump and will outlast him), but under the current lines I don't even think it's automatic in a Democratic midterm (see, uh, that it didn't flip in 2022). This is also an area where the Fair Districts Amendment and geography really help Democrats -- a state where you could gerrymander more blatantly might draw a coastal seat similar to Clay Shaw's, which would vote Republican, but modern Florida can't really do that.

If the Dems get AOC in 2028 and keep smearing Jews, he is at the top of the list for party-switchers.

Yeah, it's kind of underrated that both parties tried to recruit Moskowitz to run for them in 2022. The seat is Democratic enough that he probably wouldn't have won as a Republican (and I think his authentic political positioning is pretty genepool Democratic -- but he is very moderate and authentically apparently quite good friends with Ron DeSantis), but if he wants a statewide future he'd probably be better off switching, or taking some role in the Trump Administration. (And he's probably better off doing this while Trump is in office: Trump clearly loves party-switchers -- consider how Van Drew became a top ally, and RFK and Gabbard got Cabinet appointments -- in a way that a future Republican President is unlikely to. A Moskowitz who switches parties might actually be well-positioned to try to get a Trump endorsement for some statewide role in 2030 or something).

[Devils30]

It's still a Harris seat and Moskowitz is a pretty strong incumbent! This area is trending R pretty fast because of the identities of the newcomers (and this is a trend that predated Trump and will outlast him), but under the current lines I don't even think it's automatic in a Democratic midterm (see, uh, that it didn't flip in 2022). This is also an area where the Fair Districts Amendment and geography really help Democrats -- a state where you could gerrymander more blatantly might draw a coastal seat similar to Clay Shaw's, which would vote Republican, but modern Florida can't really do that.

If the Dems get AOC in 2028 and keep smearing Jews, he is at the top of the list for party-switchers.

Yeah, it's kind of underrated that both parties tried to recruit Moskowitz to run for them in 2022. The seat is Democratic enough that he probably wouldn't have won as a Republican (and I think his authentic political positioning is pretty genepool Democratic -- but he is very moderate and authentically apparently quite good friends with Ron DeSantis), but if he wants a statewide future he'd probably be better off switching, or taking some role in the Trump Administration. (And he's probably better off doing this while Trump is in office: Trump clearly loves party-switchers -- consider how Van Drew became a top ally, and RFK and Gabbard got Cabinet appointments -- in a way that a future Republican President is unlikely to. A Moskowitz who switches parties might actually be well-positioned to try to get a Trump endorsement for some statewide role in 2030 or something).

I don't think a lot of lefty Dems realize how far of an additional swing Jews, Asians and some Hispanics will have if AOC is the standard barer of the party. Palm Beach could easily go 60-40 R in this scenario. Trump should be attempting to isolate Dems to their campus based identity wing, not wasting time on crap like Gaetz.

[Vosem]

It's still a Harris seat and Moskowitz is a pretty strong incumbent! This area is trending R pretty fast because of the identities of the newcomers (and this is a trend that predated Trump and will outlast him), but under the current lines I don't even think it's automatic in a Democratic midterm (see, uh, that it didn't flip in 2022). This is also an area where the Fair Districts Amendment and geography really help Democrats -- a state where you could gerrymander more blatantly might draw a coastal seat similar to Clay Shaw's, which would vote Republican, but modern Florida can't really do that.

If the Dems get AOC in 2028 and keep smearing Jews, he is at the top of the list for party-switchers.

Yeah, it's kind of underrated that both parties tried to recruit Moskowitz to run for them in 2022. The seat is Democratic enough that he probably wouldn't have won as a Republican (and I think his authentic political positioning is pretty genepool Democratic -- but he is very moderate and authentically apparently quite good friends with Ron DeSantis), but if he wants a statewide future he'd probably be better off switching, or taking some role in the Trump Administration. (And he's probably better off doing this while Trump is in office: Trump clearly loves party-switchers -- consider how Van Drew became a top ally, and RFK and Gabbard got Cabinet appointments -- in a way that a future Republican President is unlikely to. A Moskowitz who switches parties might actually be well-positioned to try to get a Trump endorsement for some statewide role in 2030 or something).

I don't think a lot of lefty Dems realize how far of an additional swing Jews, Asians and some Hispanics will have if AOC is the standard barer of the party. Palm Beach could easily go 60-40 R in this scenario. Trump should be attempting to isolate Dems to their campus based identity wing, not wasting time on crap like Gaetz.

I don't think AOC is actually that likely to get nominated. There were large shifts created to the Democratic presidential nomination process in the Biden era which basically serve to give even more power to the South.

[New World Man]

Maybe Harris was a uniquely bad fit and Trump a uniquely good one for certain districts/states?

[oldtimer]

Sometime in the 2028-2032 period.

[lfromnj]

Maybe Harris was a uniquely bad fit and Trump a uniquely good one for certain districts/states?

I don’t think either is particularly true , although current Gaza circumstances may have hurt Democrats a decent bit .

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe Harris was a uniquely bad fit and Trump a uniquely good one for certain districts/states?

Fair point. When we're finally rid of Trump as a candidate and political influence, our political landscape could look very different.

[Ljube]

Moskowitz is done in the next midterm.

However, he is smart, and he knows it.

I suspect he will side with Trump and be a reliable vote for Trump's agenda and that may save him.

This time he advertised as a Republican, ran against a flawed candidate and still won by an underwhelming margin.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual

As usual, I absolutely know what I'm talking about, while you have no idea.

You mean like when you were convinced Trump was going to be acquitted because Todd Blanche called Michael Cohen “The GLOAT”

It was a political trial in a rigged court.

This is election prediction where I'm usually right.