Attempted Assassination Effect

[Meclazine for Israel]

Given the election is now complete, looking back from a history point of view, what affect, if any, did the Butler, PA assassination attempt have on the outcome of the 2024 election?

[LBJer]

None whatsoever.

[RBH]

it may have had an effect in speeding up Biden's departure, so.. someone could mark it as a net plus for Harris if they wanted to be creative

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do think it's kind of funny how Butler County swung left despite all it's neighbors swinging right. Doesn't seem like any sort of local boost manifested.

As for national implications hard to say - it seems like it was really a rally around the flag moment for MAGA, but it's unclear how many were actually drawn in who were previously outside MAGA.

I doubt it's what made or broke this election.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

You can half-seriously argue a positive Harris effect because of how Butler County swung, but otherwise the impact of it as a whole was minimal.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder if it helped get Elon and RFK on board the Trump train. Musk endorsed Trump right after the assassination attempt, and RFK of course the son and nephew of two famous assassination victims.

[Don't Be A Carrot Vote For Garrett]

I wonder if it helped get Elon and RFK on board the Trump train. Musk endorsed Trump right after the assassination attempt, and RFK of course the son and nephew of two famous assassination victims.

Musk had already sett up the pro-Trump PACs before the attempt, so he almost certainly had been planning to come out as MAGA for a while. Probably close to or at the RNC.

[Ljube]

Strong Trump.

Trump gained many prominent supporters.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Hurt Trump a bit in Butler County, because it made him look weak (only suckers and losers get shot at). But in the rest of the country it helped him a bit because it fueled the Trump martyr narrative.

[ultraviolet]

Couldn’t have had less of an effect

[MABA 2020]

I doubt it was much of a factor

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He probably got a few votes from the picture of him with his fist raised afterwards.

[qrdlelections]

I wonder if it helped get Elon and RFK on board the Trump train. Musk endorsed Trump right after the assassination attempt, and RFK of course the son and nephew of two famous assassination victims.

Great point.   Zuck seem to perk up right after that as well.

[Eraserhead]

Helped Trump a little bit. 

[Del Tachi]

A big effect, and that it isn't talked about more shows how out-of-touch professional political prognosticators are. Trump's numbers (favorability, H2H) improved significantly post-Butler and never really came back down.

[Crumpets]

That felt like the nadir of the whole campaign for me, even including election night itself. It was the point I was most worried about widespread violence which, fortunately, never came about. I do think on balance it ended up being good marketing material for Trump, but the main legacy I think will fortunately be that it showed the US still has some resilience when it comes to not descending into political violence at the drop of a hat.

[Redban]

I feel the assassination story fell out of the news cycle very quickly. A lot of Trump supporters rallied for a bit, and they spread images of Trump's pumping his fist all over the place. But the people who got riled up after the assassination attempt would've always voted for Trump regardless

[vtred]

"Assassination attempt"

[wbrocks67]

I think it matters in that it supercharged Trump's base and galvanized them. They were already on board, but I think in a race like this, with turnout in question, I think it mattered that it basically galvanized every single Trump supporter of all stripes. I remember seeing people who had never posted a single thing about Trump on social media post about that photo. I also do think it's possible it made him slightly more sympathetic to some people on the fence.

[Blazers93]

Helped for sure - that photo is iconic. I'm sure he would have won regardless and Biden dropping out stole the headlines but it definitely earned him some clout

[Voice of low info America]

It definitely had a positive effect for Trump - at a minimum, he got "fight, fight, fight", a big fundraising day and the iconic raised fist photo.

[Stan2021]

Helped immensely.

Democrats’ attacks that Trump was “old, feeble, and demented” couldn’t land when a month or two prior he got shot in the head, gets up, and screams “Fight, fight, fight!” with a fist in the air.

It was the most badass moment in US political history.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, he literally dodged a bullet, and that was emblematic of his luck overall throughout hos life and in the campaign.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I wonder if it helped get Elon and RFK on board the Trump train. Musk endorsed Trump right after the assassination attempt, and RFK of course the son and nephew of two famous assassination victims.

Great point.   Zuck seem to perk up right after that as well.

Yes, the article I read that inspired this thread said it supercharged Elon Musk into 110% 'beast mode' and Zuckerberg was also a much more underrated supporter in the background.

It's interesting Atlas members reached a similar conclusion to the historians.

[oldtimer]

it may have had an effect in speeding up Biden's departure, so.. someone could mark it as a net plus for Harris if they wanted to be creative

It did seem that the failure to remove Trump forced Democrats to remove Biden instead.

However the decision to remove Biden that way and at that time was taken at least 7 months before, since it was published in the press in Dec. '23 after being rumoured since 2020.