What happened in Massachusetts?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It had one of the hardest swings to the right nationally - however, it seems to lack many of the features that caused other major swings to the right:

Non-white voters shifting right - This certainly happened, but Massachusetts is nearly 70% white
Turnout differential - A large share of the Massachusetts Dem base is college educated whites
Local Dem incompetence - MA and Boston Dems aren't perfect but never seen to be quite at CA or NY levels.
Republican friendly growth - There's nothing that suggests this

Obviously ethnic whites were a big part of the equation in MA and that explains some of the larger swings out of places like Bristol County, but on it's own doesn't really explain why MA had such a hard swing right, especially relative to it's neighbors of CT and RI which also have large ethnic white populations.

I'm not surprised MA swung right, but it's rightward swing seems quite large in magnitude in the context of what happened nationally.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I also have the entire West Coast trending R from 2020 due to domestic migration patterns and general blue-state angst over white-collar jobs, housing affordability, and homelessness. (This is also why I have MD trending R and MA not definitively trending D.)

Was dead wrong on OR and especially WA (to say nothing of NV, AZ, FL, or TX lol)- but I was correct on the Acela corridor swinging hard R.

The simplest explanation (which is also what I voted for in your other poll) is Biden 2020 voters not turning out with an unpopular D incumbent, because it also explains what happened in those Trump 2024 states where I overestimated how Harris would do.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah the only thing I can think of is that the nonwhite and white noncollege population zoomed enough rightward that it completely cancelled out the white college+ vote? Since it seems like noncollege white voters didn't shift that much outside of the northeast for whatever reason. Like I guess its similar to NH - another swing that seems bigger than you'd think it should be, given the makeup of the state.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

MA 2024 vote totals are 2.072 million Harris to 1.235 million Trump. MA 2020 vote totals were 2.382 million Biden to 1.167 million Trump. 310k fewer D votes + 68k more R votes.

This isn't a story of college(+) whites not swinging R, this is a story of everyone in MA turning out less, and persuasion of non-college voters pissed about inflation + migrants.

[wbrocks67]

MA 2024 vote totals are 2.072 million Harris to 1.235 million Trump. MA 2020 vote totals were 2.382 million Biden to 1.167 million Trump. 310k fewer D votes + 68k more R votes.

This isn't a story of college(+) whites not swinging R, this is a story of everyone in MA turning out less, and persuasion of non-college voters pissed about inflation + migrants.

An eerily similar story across so many states. Trump increases his 2020 raw vote share by a very small amount, while Harris drops hundreds of thousands.

[New World Man]

Not having any competitive house or senate races must have an effect on some states like this. Even Ct had a contested house race.

[ottermax]

Could there have been a Catholic problem due to abortion being a central message in the campaign?

[wbrocks67]

Could there have been a Catholic problem due to abortion being a central message in the campaign?

Didn't seem to be a problem for Healey in 2022. Different electorate though, but didn't really seem to be an issue for her unless all the voters who came out this year who didn't vote in 2022 had an issue with it... which is possible I guess

[TheReckoning]

Could there have been a Catholic problem due to abortion being a central message in the campaign?

Ancestral Catholics in MA have overwhelming secularized by now.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the Catholic Church scandals basically killed off the Church in MA. MA actually had surprisingly conservative enough abortion laws to be featured on San Francisco's boycott list.

[Zed!]

(1) Hispanics
(2) Racist white Democrats (Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton-Biden-TRUMP) voters.

[Blue3]

Migrants from Haiti overwhelming cities.

Also, they still voted over 60% for Harris.

[RBH]

Could there have been a Catholic problem due to abortion being a central message in the campaign?

Didn't seem to be a problem for Healey in 2022. Different electorate though, but didn't really seem to be an issue for her unless all the voters who came out this year who didn't vote in 2022 had an issue with it... which is possible I guess

Fall River
2018: Baker wins 66-34
2022: Healey wins 57-41

New Bedford
2018: Baker wins 57-43
2022: Healey wins 61-37

Baker won statewide 67-33, Healey won 64-35

These two largish SE Mass cities went from Baker being slightly/way below his statewide average to Healey being slightly/way below her statewide average

similar drops in "percentage compared to statewide" in Holyoke, Springfield, Worcester, Lawrence, Lowell, Brockton between Gonzalez 18 and Healey 22

Boston was about the same citywide though

[Roll Roons]

To ask what a lot of people may be thinking... is it now possible to draw a compact Trump district in MA?

[Annatar]

MA is much less white than people think, its only 68% non hispanic white, it ranks 25th out of the 50 states in its non hispanic white share, so its the median basically even though its viewed as a state that is more white than average.

This point is also true in many suburbs, the college white share in the US is not growing and as a result in most suburbs college whites are a shrinking demographic, something a lot of people don't realize. One reason why so many suburban counties swing towards Trump.

[Spectator]

To ask what a lot of people may be thinking... is it now possible to draw a compact Trump district in MA?

Maybe Bristol and parts of western Plymouth but I doubt it. You still need an areas for the liberals on Barnstable, Nantucket, and Dukes to go. Can't just attach them to the Boston suburbs without creating an explicitly R seat.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

This was a surprise to me. Here are some theories. Once reliable precinct data is more accessible I think the picture will become clearer.

The biggest factor I think is that turnout was horrible relative to 2020 in MA. Not a competitive race anywhere on the ballot basically. Majority of Congressional districts were uncontested. There was also less campaign spending in NH (a lot of which gets Boston TV) so less political ads in MA. The prevailing sentiment in MA is that since it is the bluest of blue states, your vote truly is meaningless.

If base turnout was super low, then a state like MA which is bluer than RI or CT would shift more.

MA is more progressive than RI / CT so there was a bigger left wing protest vote - Jill Stein did well in Cambridge and Amherst for example. This also fueled lower base turnout. At the same time, inner ring WWC suburbanites turned off by mismanagement of progressive policies in Boston under Mayor Wu swung hard to Trump - look at a community like Saugus for example.

Suburban reversion hit a bit harder in MA because Dems had made bigger gains there since 2012 than in other parts of New England save for CT Gold Coast and thus had more room to fall back to 2016ish levels. (less sure about this one but also the wealthy suburbs are a bit more diverse in MA and that is also possibly why places like Loudoun and Fort Bend shifted a lot more)

Gateway Cities (Hispanic or WWC cities that are economically challenged and outside of the Boston core) swung very hard against Dems - there are fewer places like this in CT and especially RI which is one centralized metro and has less areas feeling "isolated" or "left behind" by the state govt. This sentiment is especially true in places like Springfield and Holyoke that do not feel at all like they are in the same state as Boston.

Hispanic population in MA is much higher than in CT which is blacker. Higher Asian population in MA too - particularly South Asians had a big swing right. Curious to see how towns like Shrewsbury shifted as a result of having very high Indian-American populations.

Biden doing well in MA was maybe also due to the higher Irish Catholic population there compared to CT and RI which are more Italian. The Irish Catholic vote probably swung considerably to Trump and there was more room for that to fall in MA. Need to look at numbers in the South Shore Irish Riviera from Braintree and Weymouth to Marshfield.

The Portuguese areas have INSANE swings, rivaling the RGV in places, and Bristol County is the epicenter of that community, particularly Fall River which outright voted for Trump.

Chronic underperformer Elizabeth Warren may have had reverse coattails dragging the top of the ticket down a bit (not sure about this as much but it's possible)

MA actually does have a lot of rural areas for Trump to make significant gains in. RI and CT do too, but MA has more truly desolate rural parts. Some of the Hilltowns between the Pioneer Valley/CT River and the Berkshires had some impressive Trump swings. Small but they add up.

Could be any combo of these factors.

[Blue3]

Nobody has responded to my post, but I have actually been in civics education and very closely following Massachusetts issues for the last 12 months. Haitian migrant shelter crises. And look at the Massachusetts state polls concerned with immigration and housing. Even the governor, Maura Healey, was advocating for that border security bill that Trump torpedoed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New England overall really doesn't seem to like female candidates.

[Dan the Roman]

My impression is that Healey is viewed as ineffective - not bad per se, but as having entirely lost control of the state - and that things are viewed as having deteriorated across the board since Baker left. This plays out slightly differently in different places and among different groups, but while MA has not reached NY/CA levels of misgovernment, the conviction it was well-governed that helped negate ANY population backlash post 2012 has decayed heavily.

As a result, I think Massachusetts saw a bunch of lagging indicators catch up.

Pretty much the ONLY happy people are the super wealthy Resist libs/ex Rs in Metrowest. Winchester/Lexington/Concord/Acton were delivering historic and near Assad margins. But they are increasingly living in a bubble

[Senator Incitatus]

As I repeatedly said before the election, Joe Biden had a unique cultural appeal to New England as an Irish Catholic which was not transferrable to Harris, especially following the RFK endorsement.

In addition, illegal immigration has become a major problem under Healey and Wu.

[Sopranos Republican]

To ask what a lot of people may be thinking... is it now possible to draw a compact Trump district in MA?

Maybe Bristol and parts of western Plymouth but I doubt it. You still need an areas for the liberals on Barnstable, Nantucket, and Dukes to go. Can't just attach them to the Boston suburbs without creating an explicitly R seat.

You could get extremely close to a swing congressional district if we put Fall River and New Bedford in the same district along with the rest of Bristol and like half of Plymouth.

As it stands right now the two cities are mostly in two different districts despite being very culturally similar and being located right next to each other. Fall River is mostly in my district (MA-4) which is lumped in with the rest of Bristol besides New Bedford and a bunch of much more Dem Boston suburbs to the North.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

To ask what a lot of people may be thinking... is it now possible to draw a compact Trump district in MA?

Maybe Bristol and parts of western Plymouth but I doubt it. You still need an areas for the liberals on Barnstable, Nantucket, and Dukes to go. Can't just attach them to the Boston suburbs without creating an explicitly R seat.

You could get extremely close to a swing congressional district if we put Fall River and New Bedford in the same district along with the rest of Bristol and like half of Plymouth.

As it stands right now the two cities are mostly in two different districts despite being very culturally similar and being located right next to each other. Fall River is mostly in my district (MA-4) which is lumped in with the rest of Bristol besides New Bedford and a bunch of much more Dem Boston suburbs to the North.

Fall River is entirely in MA-04 now after redistricting.

And yeah, MA-04 sucks. In what world should Newton and Brookline be paired with Fall River?

[RBH]

Fall River is entirely in MA-04 now after redistricting.

And yeah, MA-04 sucks. In what world should Newton and Brookline be paired with Fall River?

feels like a certain amount of the oddities of Massachusetts Congressional districts, at least around Boston is waiting on Stephen Lynch to retire so that they can sort out the lines with MA08 and MA04 and MA07?

since the Lynch district has to have a path to West Roxbury if MA07 is going into Randolph, so towns that would otherwise be in MA04 are in MA08

so if MA04 didn't go into Attleboro, then it's basically a seat with a lot of Norfolk County in it while MA08 is Quincy/Broxton/Taunton and Fall River is in MA09 with New Bedford

[TDAS04]

New England overall really doesn't seem to like female candidates.

Um, why do say that?