Which swing state Democratic Party had the worst showing?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which swing state Democratic Party had the worst showing?

[Mr.Phips]

PA for sure.  Lost two House seats and a US Senate seat.  Although holding the state house was impressive.

[E-Dawg]

Pretty clearly Arizona in the presidential

[Torie]

Write in- New Hampshire, where Harris won by a pathetic 3 points.

[wbrocks67]

Write in- New Hampshire, where Harris won by a pathetic 3 points.

NH is pretty pathetic but it's not completely unfounded, given Hillary only barely won in 2016. The fact that Harris still won by 3% while the nation was getting much redder than 2016 I think shows NH has at least moved decently leftward federally.

I'd say Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and probably AZ. The AZ GOP is in complete shambles and given AZ Dems winning streak since 2018, it seemed like an awful showing. I also personally could be wrong but I didn't feel like Kelly, Hobbs, etc. were doing as much as they could.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pennsylvania was by far the biggest disaster of the big seven. In the other six there was at least something that went right. Almost nothing went right in Pennsylvania other than the state House, and maybe the omen that Scott Perry might finally be screwed next time.

Oh, and I was also pleasantly surprised that Harris managed to win Lackawanna after all...somehow. Obviously it is no longer a bellwether, of course.

[seskoog]

Pennsylvania is the only swing state where Dems lost every statewide race (besides GA which only had the pres race)

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

[Pericles]

Arizona seems like the worse result overall given the comfortable presidential loss and that Democrats lost in two tossup House races like in Pennsylvania. However, the Senate race is basically the opposite story to Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

That's the wrong take though - Harris actually didn't do awful (compared to 2020) in most of central PA. The nail in the coffin was NEPA/SEPA. The suburbs held compared to the national shift, but even a 2-3% shift rightward among all of them, along with Philly shifting 4.5% and then places like Lackawanna, Monroe, etc. shifting like 5% was more than enough to give Trump the win. This did kind of show actually that GOP is close to maxed out in a lot of the redder areas for the most part. Unfortunately it showed though that persuasion + turnout differentials are still real on the eastern side of the state.

[SInNYC]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

That's the wrong take though - Harris actually didn't do awful (compared to 2020) in most of central PA. The nail in the coffin was NEPA/SEPA. The suburbs held compared to the national shift, but even a 2-3% shift rightward among all of them, along with Philly shifting 4.5% and then places like Lackawanna, Monroe, etc. shifting like 5% was more than enough to give Trump the win. This did kind of show actually that GOP is close to maxed out in a lot of the redder areas for the most part. Unfortunately it showed though that persuasion + turnout differentials are still real on the eastern side of the state.

If you look at the PA county swing map on this site (I am assuming its updated), there are 4 that swung the most R: Luzerne, Lackawanna, Monroe, and Pike (ordered by county size). Lackawanna has Scranton and the other 3 are nearby.

I suspect that there was a strong reverse Biden effect in these counties.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

That's the wrong take though - Harris actually didn't do awful (compared to 2020) in most of central PA. The nail in the coffin was NEPA/SEPA. The suburbs held compared to the national shift, but even a 2-3% shift rightward among all of them, along with Philly shifting 4.5% and then places like Lackawanna, Monroe, etc. shifting like 5% was more than enough to give Trump the win. This did kind of show actually that GOP is close to maxed out in a lot of the redder areas for the most part. Unfortunately it showed though that persuasion + turnout differentials are still real on the eastern side of the state.

If you look at the PA county swing map on this site (I am assuming its updated), there are 4 that swung the most R: Luzerne, Lackawanna, Monroe, and Pike (ordered by county size). Lackawanna has Scranton and the other 3 are nearby.

I suspect that there was a strong reverse Biden effect in these counties.

Somewhat that, but also trends aren't great for Ds there. Luzerne continues to shed DINOs at this point, as does Lackawanna, though the ancestral D strength often still shows up stronger downballot than the top of the ticket federally. Monroe and Pike seemed to be both not only effected by the NYC media market, but it seems likely they got a lot of COVID era transplants that lean R. Fetterman and Shapiro didn't even do that great (contextually speaking) in those areas.

[Blazers93]

PA was one of the better swing states for Harris but somehow after being lean D most of the cycle, Casey lost and now the Republicans have wave insurance

[nclib]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Ironically, in 2022 Dems did well nationally, but poor in NC. In 2024, it was the opposite. Perhaps Mark Robinson hurt down-ballot Rs.

[Pericles]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Ironically, in 2022 Dems did well nationally, but poor in NC. In 2024, it was the opposite. Perhaps Mark Robinson hurt down-ballot Rs.

Losing by only 3 points in a midterm when Republicans won the House popular vote by that much suggests Democrats did overperform there too.

[nclib]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Ironically, in 2022 Dems did well nationally, but poor in NC. In 2024, it was the opposite. Perhaps Mark Robinson hurt down-ballot Rs.

Losing by only 3 points in a midterm when Republicans won the House popular vote by that much suggests Democrats did overperform there too.

I'm not talking just about Budd. Republicans flipped 2 of our Supreme Court justices, and we lost net state House and state Senate seats.

[lfromnj]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Ironically, in 2022 Dems did well nationally, but poor in NC. In 2024, it was the opposite. Perhaps Mark Robinson hurt down-ballot Rs.

Losing by only 3 points in a midterm when Republicans won the House popular vote by that much suggests Democrats did overperform there too.

I'm not talking just about Budd. Republicans flipped 2 of our Supreme Court justices, and we lost net state House and state Senate seats.

Yup the state house was even Dem favorable and R's almost got a supermajority.

[Aurelius2]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Whenever I drive around Pennsylvania it seems like I see a lot more giant Trump signs than I do in the rural areas of other states. I've noticed this basically every time I'm there.

[EastOfEden]

Pennsylvania: the best result for Dems in 2022 and the worst result in 2024.

Pennsyltucky sure does have a lot of low propensity Trumpers.

Whenever I drive around Pennsylvania it seems like I see a lot more giant Trump signs than I do in the rural areas of other states. I've noticed this basically every time I'm there.

If you look closely, there's evidence of this even as far back as 2016.

Wisconsin: Trump 2016 got 2682 fewer votes than Romney, Clinton got 238449 fewer votes than Obama
Michigan: Trump 2016 got 164287 more votes than Romney, Clinton got 295730 fewer votes than Obama.
Pennsylvania: Trump 2016 got 290299 more votes than Romney, while Clinton got only 63833 fewer than Obama.

In Wisconsin and Michigan, it looks like the dominant feature was a drop in D votes - perhaps the loss of the low-propensity Obamists and general low enthusiasm. Some were converted to Trump, and midterms have shown that low-propensity Trumpists are definitely a presence in these states, but it looks like D-deflation is the bigger cause of the result, especially in Wisconsin (and perhaps this helps to explain Wisconsin being the leftmost of the Big 7 this year - low-propensity Trumpists being less of a factor there. Maybe this is related to the historical Republican base in the state being suburban, educated WOW).

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has a big pro-Trump turnout surge. It's clearly a different dynamic.

For reasons, I'd point to Pennsylvania's Appalachianness and greater cultural proximity to the South as major factors. There's not really anywhere that people would seriously call Michitucky or Wistucky or something, but "Pennsyltucky" is a well-known joke.

Related to this, it's somewhat surprising to me that Iowa voted to the right of Ohio this year. I guess Ohio's urban areas (minorities) give Democrats a higher floor there or something, because looking at the state culturally, I'd expect the "low-propensity Trumpists effect" to be considerably stronger there than in Iowa. Maybe Brown had an effect there this year as well, lifting Dems a bit generally from where they'd otherwise be.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Not discrediting anything you said, but I've heard people say "Michissippi" a few times.

[EastOfEden]

Not discrediting anything you said, but I've heard people say "Michissippi" a few times.

I don't doubt it, but I imagine that describes more ruralness and political conservatism rather than actual cultural similarity. What do you think?

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Not discrediting anything you said, but I've heard people say "Michissippi" a few times.

I don't doubt it, but I imagine that describes more ruralness and political conservatism rather than actual cultural similarity. What do you think?

Kid Rock is from ex-exurban Macomb County, after all. The map engendering the territory.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Migration from the Upland South and Appalachia to Michigan and metro-Detroit is real, for what it's worth.

But yes, I've never seen more Trump signs anywhere ever than during my drive through backwoods SWPA in 2016. Very, very Scots-Irish.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Migration from the Upland South and Appalachia to Michigan and metro-Detroit is real, for what it's worth.

Obligatory "the Hill People vs other whites divide is still very salient in greater Baltimore even if it's not necessarily identified as such, people joke about Dundalk or Arbutus the same way they do about West Virginia"

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Migration from the Upland South and Appalachia to Michigan and metro-Detroit is real, for what it's worth.

Obligatory "the Hill People vs other whites divide is still very salient in greater Baltimore even if it's not necessarily identified as such, people joke about Dundalk or Arbutus the same way they do about West Virginia"

Yeah according to my family from 60s-era working class Detroit (1) there were a lot of Appalachian folk and (2) those folks got made fun of for their accents a lot.

Probably a massive oversimplification but thinking about the Appalachian in-migration to Detroit has always helped me to understand why George Wallace won the 72 Michigan primaries.