Number of Counties for each possible voting pattern in 2016/2020/2024

[E-Dawg]

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
2,559 Counties (the 2,574 Trump 2020 counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump Counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
421 Counties (the 490 Clinton counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump/Trump & 54 Clinton/Biden/Trump counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
54 Counties (the 86 Biden/Trump counties minus the 32 Trump/Biden/Trump counties)

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
32 Counties

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
31 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
15 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

US Election Atlas's Numbers:
2016: 2,622 Trump & 490 Clinton
2020: 2,574 Trump & 538 Biden
2024: 2,660 Trump & 452 Harris

Sources for above are US Election Atlas & these below 2 posts, please correct anything that is wrong!

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Oktibbeha, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA
-Imperial, CA
-Lake, CA

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Essex, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Chaffee, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
-Kent, DE

The ones that Trump flipped this year that were Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 counties: Kennebec ME, Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan NH, Essex NY, Morris and Gloucester NJ, Northampton and Erie PA, Kent and Talbot MD, Lynchburg VA, Nash NC, Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas FL, Warren MS, Williamson and Tarrant TX, Tippecanoe IN, Saginaw MI, Sauk WI, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona MN, Ziebach SD, Blaine MT, Albany WY, Pueblo CO, Maricopa AZ, Marion OR, Inyo and Butte CA. The rest were Hillary-Biden counties and a lot of those flipped.

[TheReckoning]

What are the Trump 2016 - Harris 2024 counties?

[E-Dawg]

Alright, there was originally a discrepancy from the Trump 2016 & Biden 2020 numbers. I got both being 2 short of Atlas's, as well as the combined Trump & Harris county wins in 2024 being 2 short of the actual county total. But I discovered that this was all explained by me missing 2 Trump/Biden/Harris counties, so I fixed that and now there are no discrepancies in the numbers. If there are still mistakes, please let me know!

What are the Trump 2016 - Harris 2024 counties?

My current list:
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Essex, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
-Kent, DE
-Chaffee, CO

[Tekken_Guy]

Alright, there was originally a discrepancy from the Trump 2016 & Biden 2020 numbers I got both being 2 short of Atlas's, as well as the combined Trump & Harris county wins in 2024 being 2 short of the actual county total. But I discovered that this was all explained by me missing 2 Trump/Biden/Harris counties, so I fixed that and now there are no discrepancies in the numbers. If there are still mistakes, please let me know!

What are the Trump 2016 - Harris 2024 counties?

My current list:
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
-Kent, DE
-Chaffee, CO

What are the Trump/Biden/Trump ones so far?

[E-Dawg]

What are the Trump/Biden/Trump ones so far?

Kennebec ME
Carrol NH
Rockingham NH
Sullivan NH
Morris NJ
Gloucester NJ
Northampton PA
Erie PA
Kent MD
Talbot MD
Lynchburg VA
Nash NC
Duval FL
Seminole FL
Pinellas FL
Warren MS
Williamson TX
Tarrant TX
Tippecanoe IN
Saginaw MI
Sauk WI
Nicollet MN
Blue Earth MN
Winona MN
Ziebach SD
Blaine MT
Albany WY
Pueblo CO
Maricopa AZ
Marion OR
Inyo CA
Butte CA

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the Trump/Biden/Trump ones so far?

Kennebec ME
Carrol NH
Rockingham NH
Sullivan NH
Essex NY
Broome NY
Morris NJ
Gloucester NJ
Northampton PA
Erie PA
Kent MD
Talbot MD
Lynchburg VA
Nash NC
Duval FL
Seminole FL
Pinellas FL
Warren MS
Williamson TX
Tarrant TX
Tippecanoe IN
Saginaw MI
Sauk WI
Nicollet MN
Blue Earth MN
Winona MN
Ziebach SD
Blaine MT
Albany WY
Pueblo CO
Maricopa AZ
Marion OR
Inyo CA
Butte CA

Alright, and Clinton-Biden-Trump?

[Mr.Phips]

What are the Trump/Biden/Trump ones so far?

Kennebec ME
Carrol NH
Rockingham NH
Sullivan NH
Essex NY
Broome NY
Morris NJ
Gloucester NJ
Northampton PA
Erie PA
Kent MD
Talbot MD
Lynchburg VA
Nash NC
Duval FL
Seminole FL
Pinellas FL
Warren MS
Williamson TX
Tarrant TX
Tippecanoe IN
Saginaw MI
Sauk WI
Nicollet MN
Blue Earth MN
Winona MN
Ziebach SD
Blaine MT
Albany WY
Pueblo CO
Maricopa AZ
Marion OR
Inyo CA
Butte CA

Broome NY flipped back to Harris. 

[E-Dawg]

Alright, and Clinton-Biden-Trump?

-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Prince Edward, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Oktibbeha, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Desha, AR
-Muskegon, MI
-Carlton, MN
-Scott, IA
-Big Horn, MT
-Socorro, NM
-Latah, ID
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Imperial, CA
-Lake, CA

Broome NY flipped back to Harris.  

fixed, thank you

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I decided to take a look to see what the longest remaining bellweather streaks are, and it turns out that the longest one was snapped by Michael Dukakis, of all people.

Last wrong in 1988 (Dukakis vs. Bush):
Blaine MT- 1988

Last wrong in 1992 (Bush vs. Clinton):
Essex NY- 1992

Last wrong in 2000 (Gore vs. Bush):
Pinellas FL

Last wrong in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush):
Kennebec ME
Sullivan NH
Gloucester NJ
Northampton PA
Erie PA
Saginaw MI
Sauk WI
Nicollet MN
Blue Earth MN
Winona MN
Ziebach SD
Pueblo CO

McCain-Obama-Trump-Biden-Trump (these exist):
Nash NC
Warren MS

Voted for Romney in 2012:
Carroll NH
Rockingham NH
Morris NJ
Kent MD
Talbot MD
Lynchburg VA
Duval FL
Seminole FL
Williamson TX
Tarrant TX
Tippecanoe IN
Albany WY
Maricopa AZ
Marion OR
Inyo CA
Butte CA

[It's Time.]

I still can’t believe the Harris didn’t flip a single county.

[E-Dawg]

I still can’t believe the Harris didn’t flip a single county.

It's the first time since Hoover 1932 since a major party candidate failed to, as insane as it is. I guess it's a combination of today's extreme polarization and nationalization of politics, compared with Harris failing to do notably better than Biden among any demographic groups. Contrast that to McCain 2008 outperforming Bush among rural Appalachian voters, Obama 2012 outperforming Obama 2008 among Hispanics, Hillary Clinton outperforming Obama in suburban areas, and Trump 2020 outperforming Trump 2016 among Hispanics.

These improvements enabled these candidates to flip counties despite all doing worse than how their party did in the previous election, even with modern polarization. Harris failed to do this, although she could have accomplished it if some county lines were drawn differently in the Atlanta suburbs. Trump won Fayette GA by 7 points in 2020 and only 3 points this time, so alter the county lines to make it a few points bluer, and you can definitely make a decently sized Trump-Trump-Harris county out of it. Republicans are clearly screwed in Georgia long term unless trends drastically changed.

[lfromnj]

I still can’t believe the Harris didn’t flip a single county.

It's the first time since Hoover 1932 since a major party candidate failed to, as insane as it is. I guess it's a combination of today's extreme polarization and nationalization of politics, compared with Harris failing to do notably better than Biden among any demographic groups. Contrast that to McCain 2008 outperforming Bush among rural Appalachian voters, Obama 2012 outperforming Obama 2008 among Hispanics, Hillary Clinton outperforming Obama in suburban areas, and Trump 2020 outperforming Trump 2024 among Hispanics.

These improvements enabled these candidates to flip counties despite all doing worse than how their party did in the previous election, even with modern polarization. Harris failed to do this, although she could have accomplished it if some county lines were drawn differently in the Atlanta suburbs. Trump won Fayette GA by 7 points in 2020 and only 3 points this time, so alter the county lines to make it a few points bluer, and you can definitely make a decently sized Trump-Trump-Harris county out of it. Republicans are clearly screwed in Georgia long term unless trends drastically changed.

I don't believe Obama flipped any Hispanic based counties  though. I believe it was mostly rural black counties thanks to keeping black turnout the same as 2008 while white turnout fell. +Staten Island.

[E-Dawg]

I just realized, does US Election Atlas not count the Alaskan boroughs & census areas as county equivalents?

[Figueira]

Coreect me if I'm wrong, but I believe Rockland County NY is the longest running popular vote bellwether (since 1980). Caddo Parish LA used to be tied for this, but it voted for Harris.

[CentristRepublican]

Aside from the obviously insane fact that there was not a single Trump-Harris county across the entire nation, it's also pretty mindblowing that a majority of Trump-Biden counties flipped back Republican this cycle.

[E-Dawg]

Does anybody have a list of the Romney/Clinton counties? I know all but one (Kenedy TX) voted for Biden in 2020, but i don't know if any additional ones flipped back to Trump in 2024.

[E-Dawg]

I adjusted the numbers and edited the list to account for Oktibbeha MS & Imperial CA flipping to Trump in late counting (both are Clinton/Biden/Trump counties). Let me know if there's anything else I'm missing. Harris is only ahead in Lake County CA by 12 votes with 93% in, so we will see what happens there.

[nclib]

Does anybody have a list of the Romney/Clinton counties? I know all but one (Kenedy TX) voted for Biden in 2020, but i don't know if any additional ones flipped back to Trump in 2024.

There doesn't appear to be any Romney-Clinton-Biden-Trump counties.

[E-Dawg]

Updated to account for Lake CA flipping to Trump. Hopefully the county results nationwide are 100% final now.

[E-Dawg]

https://x.com/carbo_al/status/1864061727656042989?t=No2wOFpuiJ8OYxZE2gSo0g&s=19

[Wormless Gourd]

Updated to account for Lake CA flipping to Trump. Hopefully the county results nationwide are 100% final now.

Looks like Essex, NY flipped back to Harris

[E-Dawg]

Updated to account for Lake CA flipping to Trump. Hopefully the county results nationwide are 100% final now.

Looks like Essex, NY flipped back to Harris

where are you seeing that? CNN and AP still show Trump leading.

[Wormless Gourd]

Updated to account for Lake CA flipping to Trump. Hopefully the county results nationwide are 100% final now.

Looks like Essex, NY flipped back to Harris

where are you seeing that? CNN and AP still show Trump leading.

It's on the Atlas
Harris: 9,629 - 49.62%
Trump: 9,533 - 49.12%

[John Lewis Fan]

Essex BOE appears to have Harris up
https://www.co.essex.ny.us/downloads/enight.pdf

[E-Dawg]

Essex BOE appears to have Harris up
https://www.co.essex.ny.us/downloads/enight.pdf

Alright, I updated to account for Essex going Harris. Hopefully the county map is final now, hopefully...