Imperial county CA nearly flips. Down to 1.7% lead for Harris

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1858688807039574264

[EpicHistory]

I doubt California will become a swing state anytime soon, but these sorts of swings are probably opening up new Congressional pathways for the GOP. Still, would be pretty funny if NC and Georgia become solid blue in the 2030s just for California to become a swing state lmao.

[E-Dawg]

Are there votes remaining?

[lfromnj]

Are there votes remaining?

56k votes in 2020. Maybe a few more to bump it up to 50 or 51k?

[New World Man]

Rural,socially conservative voters.

[Sbane]

Are there votes remaining?

About 7,500 but most of those are provisionals that may not be counted in the end.

[Agafin]

The only places Guam seems to be correlated with are the latino american enclaves like Dade, RGV or Imperial County. If Trump improves in Guam, those places are also probably gonna be better for him than 2020.

Said this on election day and it seems to have mostly panned out. I haven't checked it but I assume the correlation also exists with Asian American enclaves and native American reserves.

In other words, Guam is correlated with areas in the US where the majority of the population is mono-ethnic so long as that ethnicity is neither non-hispanic white nor (ADOS) black.

So yeah , analyzing the results in Guam on election day wasn't so useless afterall.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

This tweet shows a 2k gain of R votes from 2020 and a 11k loss of D votes from 2020 by the way. The turnout differential is consistent with the big city CA county-level results.

This part might not be equivalent to what happened in Guam though.

[BaldEagle1991]

This is California’s Starr County

[ottermax]

One interesting metric to compare is the gay marriage vote - Imperial County in 2008 voted strongly for Obama and then very strongly Yes on Prop 8. Today it's only up no on Prop 3 by about 5 points, yet only up for Harris by 1.7 which shows that there's much more alignment between who's voting Democratic and social issues than there was 15 years ago.

[Roll Roons]

Republicans flipped the assembly seat there in an upset.

[Skill and Chance]

One interesting metric to compare is the gay marriage vote - Imperial County in 2008 voted strongly for Obama and then very strongly Yes on Prop 8. Today it's only up no on Prop 3 by about 5 points, yet only up for Harris by 1.7 which shows that there's much more alignment between who's voting Democratic and social issues than there was 15 years ago.

It also voted less than 55% pro-choice on the 2022 abortion amendment!

[Skill and Chance]

I doubt California will become a swing state anytime soon, but these sorts of swings are probably opening up new Congressional pathways for the GOP. Still, would be pretty funny if NC and Georgia become solid blue in the 2030s just for California to become a swing state lmao.

CA becoming a swing state is very over the top, but R's going from 10ish to 20ish House seats in an average year in CA is totally plausible in the near future. 

[GAinDC]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

[Skill and Chance]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

If we somehow end up having Youngkin vs. Fetterman 2028, I would agree with this.  However, the likely GOP nominee is Vance who on top of having similar appeal to Trump is Catholic and will probably make a point of attending Mass in many supermajority Hispanic churches during the 2028 campaign, so I think it's reasonably sustainable until the next economic crash.   

[GAinDC]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

If we somehow end up having Youngkin vs. Fetterman 2028, I would agree with this.  However, the likely GOP nominee is Vance who on top of having similar appeal to Trump is Catholic and will probably make a point of attending Mass in many supermajority Hispanic churches during the 2028 campaign, so I think it's reasonably sustainable until the next economic crash.   

I don't think a few photo ops at mass will seal the deal for JD Vance. We'll just have to see

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting metric to compare is the gay marriage vote - Imperial County in 2008 voted strongly for Obama and then very strongly Yes on Prop 8. Today it's only up no on Prop 3 by about 5 points, yet only up for Harris by 1.7 which shows that there's much more alignment between who's voting Democratic and social issues than there was 15 years ago.

It also voted less than 55% pro-choice on the 2022 abortion amendment!

I think in these heavily Hispanic areas where Dems have lost ground, looking at how much Harris is overperforming liberal positions on ballot initiatives around issues like abortion and gay marriage could help give a general picture of how much further Democrats theoretically have to fall in these places if these culture wars continuing being big issues. Currently in Imperial County there seem to be a good number of voters who voted for Harris but against gay marriage - these are voters the GOP may have potential to peel off in future cycles.

[Skill and Chance]

One interesting metric to compare is the gay marriage vote - Imperial County in 2008 voted strongly for Obama and then very strongly Yes on Prop 8. Today it's only up no on Prop 3 by about 5 points, yet only up for Harris by 1.7 which shows that there's much more alignment between who's voting Democratic and social issues than there was 15 years ago.

It also voted less than 55% pro-choice on the 2022 abortion amendment!

I think in these heavily Hispanic areas where Dems have lost ground, looking at how much Harris is overperforming liberal positions on ballot initiatives around issues like abortion and gay marriage could help give a general picture of how much further Democrats theoretically have to fall in these places if these culture wars continuing being big issues. Currently in Imperial County there seem to be a good number of voters who voted for Harris but against gay marriage - these are voters the GOP may have potential to peel off in future cycles.

TBH I think there are 2 conflicting dynamics:

1. relatively good economy = pro-incumbent party, relatively bad economy = anti-incumbent party

However

2. relatively good economy = people focus more on cultural issues, relatively bad economy = people focus less on cultural issues and the median voter is closer to Republicans culturally

Therefore, there's a local minimum for Democrats running as incumbents with a good, but not amazing economy (e.g. 2000, 2016, 2024, etc.) where Republicans tend to win the election on cultural issues.  There's also a local minimum for Republicans with a bad, but not terrible economy and a Dem incumbent (e.g. 2012).

[Sbane]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

It could just be downballot lag, but I think it is noteworthy how far ahead of Harris people like Gallego and Allred ran in heavily Hispanic communities, especially those along the border. They ran campaigns that really tried to distance themselves from the current administration on immigration early on.

[GAinDC]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

and the same forces that shifted these voters from Kerry to Obama could also shift them from Trump to the next Dem

At its core, the GOP is still a party for rich white people

[Sbane]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

It could just be downballot lag, but I think it is noteworthy how far ahead of Harris people like Gallego and Allred ran in heavily Hispanic communities, especially those along the border. They ran campaigns that really tried to distance themselves from the current administration on immigration early on.

Yeah it might just be downballot lag but the only ads I saw from Allred was how he was better than Cruz on the border. Complete with a pickup truck and a cowboy hat.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3777057515843798

[Skill and Chance]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

and the same forces that shifted these voters from Kerry to Obama could also shift them from Trump to the next Dem

At its core, the GOP is still a party for rich white people

Ehhh... rich white people as a group likely voted Dem this year, depending on your cutoff for rich.  And if you mean estate tax level rich, minorities at that level probably also broke for Trump this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

and the same forces that shifted these voters from Kerry to Obama could also shift them from Trump to the next Dem

At its core, the GOP is still a party for rich white people

Ehhh... rich white people as a group likely voted Dem this year, depending on your cutoff for rich.  And if you mean estate tax level rich, minorities at that level probably also broke for Trump this year.

I wonder if rich people in general are more likely to vote the opposite of what you'd "demographically expect" almost out of pride or general disconnect from the rest of their group. Perhaps it could be subconscious, but a rich white person might think "I'm better than all those whites in rural KY" while a rich black person might think they're better than all the black people who live in the South Side of Chicago.

[GAinDC]

Kerry only won Imperial County by 6 in 2004, and then Obama won it by 26 points four years later.

It seems like these rural, Hispanic voters can shift right when elections are fought on cultural issues and the messenger is a conservative populist-type, but the voters there are still economically left wing and not beholden to the Republican Party at all.

A more populist Dem with working class appeal could swing back a lot of these voters. If not, then it's clear the party has lost its way.

I remember thinking in 2016/2017 when the conversation was about whether Dems should try to appeal to the white working class or Hispanics that it was a false choice. In reality you can appeal to both groups with the same messaging. In 2016 there was a big divergence because Hispanics were afraid what the election of Trump actually meant. When they saw they weren't going to be affected if they were themselves not undocumented, they swung right in 2020. And when the Democrats allowed a bunch of Venezuelans and Central Americans in they swung even further right this year. A strong pro-border control message (doesn't have to be anti-immigrant) will help with working class folks of all races.

and the same forces that shifted these voters from Kerry to Obama could also shift them from Trump to the next Dem

At its core, the GOP is still a party for rich white people

Ehhh... rich white people as a group likely voted Dem this year, depending on your cutoff for rich.  And if you mean estate tax level rich, minorities at that level probably also broke for Trump this year.

Look at Biden's cabinet then look at the cabinet Trump is assembling.

Look at the Dem caucus in Congress. Then look at the Republican conference