Trump is currently up 1.7% percent, will his margin decrease to under 1.5%?

[Obiden2020]

What does that say for his claim to a mandate? Additionally, it makes me think that the Congressional races will be a tough hurdle given that Trump is not on the ballot in 2026.

[SN2903]

You guys are coping too hard.

[Morgan Kingsley]

Maybe 1.5

Definitely not below 1

[It's Time.]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

[SN2903]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Easily a mandate and it's definitely a realignment in my opinion. Most significant election in terms of impact since '60 or '80 although you can argue 2008 as well. Every state in the country moved toward one party for the first time since 1932! This didn't even happen in 1972 or 1980!

[Progressive Pessimist]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Easily a mandate and it's definitely a realignment in my opinion. Most significant election in terms of impact since '60 or '80 although you can argue 2008 as well. Every state in the country moved toward one party for the first time since 1932! This didn't even happen in 1972 or 1980!

It's not a realignment unless a future, non-Trump nominee can sustain it, which I doubt.

[New World Man]

People got tired of him in 2020. They will be even more tired of him in 2 and 4 years.

[Obiden2020]

You guys are coping too hard.

I didn’t know coping was looking at statistics.

[Eraserhead]

A majority of voters didn't vote for Trump for the third time in a row. It's one of the only positive things from the results of the Presidential race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A majority of voters didn't vote for Trump for the third time in a row. It's one of the only positive things from the results of the Presidential race.

That actually makes me angrier. It's those soft-supporters of his I hold in the mkst contempt. At least his cultish base are genuine and ride-or-die.

[Sumner 1868]

No President has had a mandate since the 1964 landslide and that's not changing anytime soon.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No President has had a mandate since the 1964 landslide and that's not changing anytime soon.

How did Reagan not have a mandate after 1980/1984. He won 489 EV in 1980, won 12 senate seats for the GOP and won conservatives effective control in the house.

Then in 1984 he won 49 states, the GOP held control of the senate and conservatives regained effective control in the house

[Sumner 1868]

No President has had a mandate since the 1964 landslide and that's not changing anytime soon.

How did Reagan not have a mandate after 1980/1984. He won 489 EV in 1980, won 12 senate seats for the GOP and won conservatives effective control in the house.

Then in 1984 he won 49 states, the GOP held control of the senate and conservatives regained effective control in the house

Half the stuff he did were already Carter policies, so the idea a great shift happened is not correct. When he tried things the boil weevils didn't want he consistently failed.

[Eraserhead]

No President has had a mandate since the 1964 landslide and that's not changing anytime soon.

Nixon in '72? Reagan in '84?

[Vosem]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Easily a mandate and it's definitely a realignment in my opinion. Most significant election in terms of impact since '60 or '80 although you can argue 2008 as well. Every state in the country moved toward one party for the first time since 1932! This didn't even happen in 1972 or 1980!

It's not a realignment unless a future, non-Trump nominee can sustain it, which I doubt.

It's not even a realignment because the result is just not so different from 2016/2020! Even if you really want to say that Trump is some massive realignment, clearly the important election in that sequence is 2016, not 2024 (which is only a single state off).

In general, though, basically every election 2000-present has had basically similar patterns, and I think the realignment in what the parties stood for was actually somewhat earlier than that (1992/1994), with 2000 merely being when knowledge of that shift hit the presidential campaigns.

[Sumner 1868]

No President has had a mandate since the 1964 landslide and that's not changing anytime soon.

Nixon in '72? Reagan in '84?

A real mandate is a clear sweep of the party as well as the candidate. This is why we've never had a modern equivalent of Lincoln or Roosevelt's coalitions.

[BlueSwan]

Obama in 2008 was a “mandate”. Every election since has been very close by historical standards.

[TheReckoning]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Easily a mandate and it's definitely a realignment in my opinion. Most significant election in terms of impact since '60 or '80 although you can argue 2008 as well. Every state in the country moved toward one party for the first time since 1932! This didn't even happen in 1972 or 1980!

Carter gained over McGovern in every state.

[jaichind]

Carter gained over McGovern in every state.

2020 was not a landslide defeat and in fact was a fairly close election with the tipping point state decided  by 0.63%.  1972 was a totally different story.

[Virginiá]

You guys are coping too hard.

I didn’t know coping was looking at statistics.

And on a forum literally dedicated to obsessively following and analyzing even the smallest electoral trends.

[caf_elections]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Where's that smug user who's name is Biden's 2020 raw vote margin in the NPV. I believe they did the same for HRC. You're going to have to update your name buddy... with a leading negative sign.

[Skill and Chance]

It doesn't matter. Trump won every swing state, got a trifecta, had every state swing to him from 2020, and didn't lose a single county that he won in 2020. He also won the popular vote, second time for a Republican in the last 35 years, and got a higher vote share than HRC in 2016.

It's objectively a mandate.

Easily a mandate and it's definitely a realignment in my opinion. Most significant election in terms of impact since '60 or '80 although you can argue 2008 as well. Every state in the country moved toward one party for the first time since 1932! This didn't even happen in 1972 or 1980!

It's not a realignment unless a future, non-Trump nominee can sustain it, which I doubt.

It's not even a realignment because the result is just not so different from 2016/2020! Even if you really want to say that Trump is some massive realignment, clearly the important election in that sequence is 2016, not 2024 (which is only a single state off).

In general, though, basically every election 2000-present has had basically similar patterns, and I think the realignment in what the parties stood for was actually somewhat earlier than that (1992/1994), with 2000 merely being when knowledge of that shift hit the presidential campaigns.

Not sure about this.  After the Inland South went solid R, 2000-2020 all involved contesting the Midwest above all else, with most results being close.  2024 looks like the others in the Midwest, but very different elsewhere.  It demonstrates the possibility of a winning R coalition that won't "need" the Midwest anymore.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Obama in 2008 was a “mandate”. Every election since has been very close by historical standards.

This is at least a consistent position.

2008 was the only landslide of my lifetime.

But this election goes into the 1996, 2004, 2012 range in my opinion of being a "mandate" (solid win) but not a landslide.

[BlueSwan]

Obama in 2008 was a “mandate”. Every election since has been very close by historical standards.

This is at least a consistent position.

2008 was the only landslide of my lifetime.

But this election goes into the 1996, 2004, 2012 range in my opinion of being a "mandate" (solid win) but not a landslide.

I think a "mandate" means that there is solid public backing for you to implement your political agenda. I don't even think that is close to being the case here. Trump probably got less than 50% of the overall vote and there is no indication that his actual political platform has much public support outside of a vague idea that there needs to be more control with immigration. People have no idea what Trumps tariffs would result in, for instance.

[Voice of low info America]

A majority of voters didn't vote for Trump for the third time in a row. It's one of the only positive things from the results of the Presidential race.

That actually makes me angrier. It's those soft-supporters of his I hold in the mkst contempt. At least his cultish base are genuine and ride-or-die.

How dare people hate both sides that are objectively bad.