Why do Democrats always need to flip 4 senate seats?

[Joe Biden 2028]

In 2016, Democrats needed to flip 4 seats to win the senate. They only flipped 2.

In 2020, they needed to flip 4 seats. They did.

In 2026? Once again, they need to flip 4 senate seats.

Just kinda odd the hole is always 4 seats.

[RJ]

In spite of the fact that Harris had 226 safe electoral votes and Trump only had 219 before the swing states were decided, there are 24 states in the last few presidential elections which are at least heavily leaning Republican and only 19 such Democratic states. To the best of my knowledge, there is only 1 senator remaining from the opposite party in these 43 states accounted for. That's Collins in Maine. That gives the GOP 48 senators right off the bat. Even without Collins, all the Republicans need to do in this day and age is win 3 of the 14 such seats in the 7 swing states. They have 4 of these seats now pending what happens in PA. Collins is just a bonus.

It's sad that cross over senators are all but extinct. At one point, 5 of the 6 senators from North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana were Democrats. All are gone now. Arkansas? that was pretty solid Democrat as far as senatorial elections. Now, it's a rightwing nut job state. One of the senators there is that god-awful Tom Crappin(Cotton). Illinois had a long time Republican senator until he retired and Obama won his seat. There have been Republicans in the north east but not many in recent memory. The republicans already took MT and WV, easily at that, and mounted a successful campaign against Brown. The democrats don't have as many targets.

[PALiberal]

In 2016, Democrats needed to flip 4 seats to win the senate. They only flipped 2.

In 2020, they needed to flip 4 seats. They did.

In 2026? Once again, they need to flip 4 senate seats.

Just kinda odd the hole is always 4 seats.

Because rural, underpopulated states have far too much representation in the senate, and Democrats have been bleeding votes for YEARS in those states. North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Missouri, Indiana. Before 2010, Democrats held 15 senate seats in these states. In 2025, that number will be zero.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it's a s***tily designed institution.