The incredible, unsinkable, battleground Republicans

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm thinking of members like Brian Fitzpatrick, Don Bacon, David Valadao, David Schweikert, and Scott Perry.

Through extremely tough cycles, unfavorable trends and personal scandals, they keep holding on. What do they all have in common that allows them to keep winning?

[coloradocowboi]

I think Schweikert and Perry got lucky this was a surprise GOP-wave. I still think their days are numbered because they are way to the right of their districts.

The other three are brilliant politicians. They know their districts well and embody their values. I don't think the Dems are ever taking Fitzpatrick and Valadao down. Bacon will struggle tho in a wave.

[Talleyrand]

I don't think the Dems are ever Valadao down.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California%27s_21st_congressional_district_election

[coloradocowboi]

I don't think the Dems are ever Valadao down.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California%27s_21st_congressional_district_election

It's tough to say because his district is so low turnout. Cox barely edged him out tho and he didn't quite have the moderate hero legend brand he has built up since the impeachment vote. I am happy to eat crow if it's a wave. I'd love to be wrong because it means one more for us.

I think he's a very strong candidate for the region though.

[GAinDC]

haha I like the companion thread

I agree these members are impressive as well. Though I'd argue that they've had more favorable cycles over the last four years than Dems have had

[Roll Roons]

I don't think the Dems are ever Valadao down.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California%27s_21st_congressional_district_election

It's tough to say because his district is so low turnout. Cox barely edged him out tho and he didn't quite have the moderate hero legend brand he has built up since the impeachment vote. I am happy to eat crow if it's a wave. I'd love to be wrong because it means one more for us.

I think he's a very strong candidate for the region though.

Valadao was strong before that, don't forget that he flipped the seat back even while Biden was winning it by 10+ points.

I think his 2018 loss was partially because he got caught flat-footed by Democrats' ballot harvesting, but he's since learned to use it to his own benefit. Helps that the area has trended Republican.

[Pericles]

Only 2018 was extremely tough, the other recent elections have either been neutral or Republican leaning. Voters will clean house in 2026.

[kwabbit]

Fitzpatrick is Lean R, Valadao is a tossup, the rest are Lean D. Perry in particular I doubt holds on. He's an underperformer, so the narrower, ticket-splitting midterm electorate harms him while it benefits Fitzpatrick, Valadao, and Bacon.

[Nyvin]

Scott Perry underperformed Trump by a significant amount.   He's probably doomed in a good Dem election year.

[New World Man]

Let's revisit this in 2026 when these people have to vote for some really radical stuff. Bacon only survives in scenario's where a Biden is in office and he can oppose things. With a narrow majority,he will have to vote aye or nay and either way he's in trouble.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Perry is a clear underdog. Schweikert and Bacon are probably narrow underdogs as well. Fitzpatrick and Valadao start out as favorites, but are definitely vulnerable, particularly if 2026 is a blue wave.

[Spectator]

I think Schweikert and Perry got lucky this was a surprise GOP-wave. I still think their days are numbered because they are way to the right of their districts.

The other three are brilliant politicians. They know their districts well and embody their values. I don't think the Dems are ever taking Fitzpatrick and Valadao down. Bacon will struggle tho in a wave.

Fitzpatrick only won in 2018 because Dems nominated an antisemite. Not saying he's likely to lose, but I think he's a lot more at-risk to a serious challenger than his electoral history suggests. Valadao, I'll grant you. Rudy Salas was an idiot for not running back in 2018 when he probably would've easily won and kept it. 2022 and 2024 were rough years for CA Dems, but there's no telling 2026 will be any better with Newsom being unpopular in his district.

[coloradocowboi]

I think Schweikert and Perry got lucky this was a surprise GOP-wave. I still think their days are numbered because they are way to the right of their districts.

The other three are brilliant politicians. They know their districts well and embody their values. I don't think the Dems are ever taking Fitzpatrick and Valadao down. Bacon will struggle tho in a wave.

Fitzpatrick only won in 2018 because Dems nominated an antisemite. Not saying he's likely to lose, but I think he's a lot more at-risk to a serious challenger than his electoral history suggests. Valadao, I'll grant you. Rudy Salas was an idiot for not running back in 2018 when he probably would've easily won and kept it. 2022 and 2024 were rough years for CA Dems, but there's no telling 2026 will be any better with Newsom being unpopular in his district.

I actually think the Democrats should run like a scorched earth, far left campaign against Valadao and just see what happens. Again, I just don't think any D can win under present conditions. In CA, House Rs can also run against Newsom which helps in a negative nat'l environment cuz he sux

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

[MargieCat]

It would take a favorable environment to get them out.

The last time Democrats had a truly favorable environment (where major flips happened) was in 2018.

But many of the places we flipped in 2018, promptly flipped back in 2020. And then, they were redistricted so that Democrats could never win those places again.

The examples I am thinking of are Ben McAdams, Abby Finkenauer, Kendra Horn, DMP, Donna Shalala, Collin Peterson, Max Rose, and Joe Cunningham.

In some cases, gerrymandering made these seats harder for a Dem to win (see Oklahoma, Utah, and Max Rose). In others, the area just trended away from Dems big time (MN-07 and Miami Dade). Granted MN-07 wasn't a flip that cycle.

If Democrats are preparing for a blue wave, the calculus is just different. In some cases, we were able to flip some seats (that I didn't mention above) back. But of the ones above, maybe Ashley Hinson and Nancy Mace are the only semi-competitive seats left.

So the new calculus would have us looking at different seats. If Republicans make a seat like  OK-05 uncompetitive, we focus on a seat like AZ-01 instead.

If a Marcy Kaptur loses, we would probably look to a blue-trending seat in a different state.

[Tekken_Guy]

It would take a favorable environment to get them out.

The last time Democrats had a truly favorable environment (where major flips happened) was in 2018.

But many of the places we flipped in 2018, promptly flipped back in 2020. And then, they were redistricted so that Democrats could never win those places again.

The examples I am thinking of are Ben McAdams, Abby Finkenauer, Kendra Horn, DMP, Donna Shalala, Collin Peterson, Max Rose, and Joe Cunningham.

In some cases, gerrymandering made these seats harder for a Dem to win (see Oklahoma, Utah, and Max Rose). In others, the area just trended away from Dems big time (MN-07 and Miami Dade). Granted MN-07 wasn't a flip that cycle.

If Democrats are preparing for a blue wave, the calculus is just different. In some cases, we were able to flip some seats (that I didn't mention above) back. But of the ones above, maybe Ashley Hinson and Nancy Mace are the only semi-competitive seats left.

So the new calculus would have us looking at different seats. If Republicans make a seat like  OK-05 uncompetitive, we focus on a seat like AZ-01 instead.

If a Marcy Kaptur loses, we would probably look to a blue-trending seat in a different state.

NY-11 didn't get gerrymandered into a safe R seat. It just bolted right like the Miami-Dade seats.

[Spectator]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

Sounds like you’re trying to say brown

[riverwalk7]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

Sounds like you’re trying to say brown

The Sinema 2018, Biden/Kelly 2020, Hobbs/Kelly 2022 McCain Republicans voted for Trump this time.

[Spectator]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

Sounds like you’re trying to say brown

The Sinema 2018, Biden/Kelly 2020, Hobbs/Kelly 2022 McCain Republicans voted for Trump this time.

You missed my point, not a shocker

[riverwalk7]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

Sounds like you’re trying to say brown

The Sinema 2018, Biden/Kelly 2020, Hobbs/Kelly 2022 McCain Republicans voted for Trump this time.

You missed my point, not a shocker

There were tons of never Trumpers anecdotally who were okay with Biden but not Harris. Like they said right after 2020 "hopefully nothing happens to Biden". Even you, Devils30, and a bunch of never Trumper Republicans on ET hated Harris until she became the nominee, then justified voting for her once she became the nominee.

Not sure if it has to do with the color of the skin, though there could be a subconscious element. More likely to do with her lack of authenticity and insecurity (ie trying too hard to figure out what she thinks normal is, feeling the need to be what she thinks is normal and prove she is more "normal" and less "weird" than Trump), as well as her past far-left positions/record.

[Tekken_Guy]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

Sounds like you’re trying to say brown

The Sinema 2018, Biden/Kelly 2020, Hobbs/Kelly 2022 McCain Republicans voted for Trump this time.

Yeah, it seems they took their anti-MAGA energy out on Lake instead.

[MargieCat]

Do we know how Shah performed compared to Lake and Trump?

He seems like a relatively generic candidate that was the victim of a bad national environment. Arizona is probably redder downballot than other swing states. It means that Democrats need a really good national environment to flip many legislative seats, board of supervisors seats, congerssional seats, etc.

They had a great environment in 2022, but weren't focused enough on downballot races.

I'm not sure to what extent if any if Trump-only voters were a thing here.

As for 2026, I think Shah could run again. If there were no major scandals, sometimes the second time is the charm. Just look at Josh Riley, Laura Gillen, and Tom Barrett.

Now TBH, my top choice was Marlene Galan-Woods, but I don't blame Shah for his loss. There are plenty of centrist Dems that Dems can run here in 2026. State Senator Christine Marsh is another prospect. She just lost her state senate seat in redder territory. For context, Shah represented a bluer part of Central Phoenix in the State House compared to Marsh's Scottsdale/Paradise Valley seat.

[CentristRepublican]

I'm thinking of members like Brian Fitzpatrick, Don Bacon, David Valadao, David Schweikert, and Scott Perry.

Through extremely tough cycles, unfavorable trends and personal scandals, they keep holding on. What do they all have in common that allows them to keep winning?

Valadao's no electoral lightweight and you won't hear me calling him one, but saying he's "unsinkable" is categorically false given that he has lost in a blue wave before.

I will say though that the moment I read the OP my mind jumped to Brian Fitzpatrick. That man's quite the electoral titan. Although he COULD lose in 2026, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he held on.

I think Schweikert and Perry got lucky this was a surprise GOP-wave. I still think their days are numbered because they are way to the right of their districts.

This. Perry in particular had a pretty shameful performance - given that he won narrowly in a slightly Republican seat in a good year for Rs, it seems highly likely he actually underperformed Trump.

[CentristRepublican]

I already took somewhat of a victory lap on this, but people fundamentally do not understand AZ-01. It's a 70% white (closer to 80% white electorate) affluent older area in Scottsdale/North Phoenix. Trump won it by 4, Biden by 2, and it looks like Trump has flipped it back again this year. These people don't like Trump (well they did now) or MAGA at large, but they have voted downballot R for decades, and have casted a ballot for Schweikert like 8 times now. McCainites were never going to ditch their voting history for him because Cheetoh Man Bad or #votebluenomatterwho and go for Amish Shah of all people lmao. Part of the reason Kamala Harris got destroyed in Arizona is she was too exotic for people who are fine voting for a generic moderate Dem like Biden/Hobbs/Kelly, but Harris is just too much for them to tolerate.

The fact is that yes, Schweikert held on in 2022, but he BARELY did against an unserious and underfunded opponent (who even is Jevin Hodge? seriously?)

It's disingenuous to suggest that just because Schweikert's been reelected till now, he's some kind of permanent lock or even a particularly strong candidate. You're closing your eyes to the evidence, kind of like how some Dems were back in 2020 about MN-07. Just because it's been long-aligned with one party or one congressman (and fwiw Schweikert's been in Congress only half as long as Peterson) doesn't change the fact that the district is now fundamentally different on the topline and polarization eventually catches up. I'd think differently given that AZ-01 is a legitimately marginal seat, unlike if Schweikert was a Peterson- or Fitzpatrick- or even Bacon-tier candidate. But he's not. He's faced ethics controversies and is unapologetically hard-right.

Now, that does remind me of Mike Turner, a fascinating case that would probably receive more attention if his district was 5 or 10 more points Republican. He's a consistent outperformer that turns a Lean R (margin) district Safe R, in spite of being cited as one of the most corrupt members of Congress. In a Trump+4 district, he's won by 14 points in 2018 (a blue wave), 17 points in 2020, and a whopping 23 points in 2022 (granted OH had a red wave on the statewide level - but otoh that didn't stop Sykes, Landsman, and Kaptur from winning their races in fairly marginal seats).

[MargieCat]

Shah will be running again.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1859328899252912440