If the Country is doing ok, what do Democrats run on in 2026?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of the discussion around 2026 on here implies that Trump will actually implement tariffs that shoot up prices or carry through with a mass deportation plan.

However, what if he largely doesn't rock the boat, at least in a way that everyday Americans feel affected by? What should Democrats run on? 2024 made it clear that abortion + Trump is a threat to Democracy and a bad person isn't necessarily enough. I also imagine if the Country maintains relative stability, the public will generally credit Trump for the economy and relative peace, and so trying to get people to vote for Democrats instead could be challenging.

[GAinDC]

I mean, that was the landscape in 2018 and Dems sill did fine

Midterm environments are almost always hostile for the party in power, regardless of what's happening in America.

[หมูเด้ง]

I mean, that was the landscape in 2018 and Dems sill did fine

Midterm environments are almost always hostile for the party in power, regardless of what's happening in America.

That could actually explain the 70s and 80s where Democrats were able to get majorities in Congress because things never really got bad and so Republican Presidents were getting reelected.

[Spectator]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

[coloradocowboi]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Which is why I think it's an enormous assumption to think the economy will be doing okay.

Either: 1. Trump follows through with his immigration and tariff promises and causes massive inflation and potentially a stagflation recession; or 2. He breaks his promises to his base - and we can definitely run on that.

[Pericles]

I have never seen the polls not showing that a majority think the US is heading in the wrong direction.

[RJ]

The Donald and the Republican Party have raised the stakes tremendously with these crazy promises.

If they go through with things they said, it stands to reason that even with eventual success, there are still going to be a lot of moving parts in this "new order" they've proclaimed. If they go through with steep tariffs and mass deportations, labor and import markets will be affected. If they repeal Obamacare, several people will lose their healthcare. If they "clean house" and remove certain leadership or do away with certain departments all together, there will be new standards and procedures that will cause growing pains. These are mostly short term problems for someone who has a vision of how they want something(and I doubt anyone in the new administration or Republican party has such a vision) that could get fixed, but the electorate is impatient in this country, if nothing else.

If they don't go through with it, many people will defect from supporting them and say they didn't follow through with their promises and are just as corrupt as "The Swamp" their perspective has of Washington.

[หมูเด้ง]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Which is why I think it's an enormous assumption to think the economy will be doing okay.

Either: 1. Trump follows through with his immigration and tariff promises and causes massive inflation and potentially a stagflation recession; or 2. He breaks his promises to his base - and we can definitely run on that.

So Trump either governs as Trump or becomes W's third term. Personally, I see Trump's second term being to his first what Obama's second was to his first.

In Obama's second term, the economy was finally "good" and if anything, our country's sphere of influence was expanded. However, because of the healthcare.gov fiasco, The Liberty Caucus and Progressive Caucus allying on stopping the "thin red line", the returned focus on Police Brutality, Democrats were destroyed in 14 (though they held up in some places that have since become D vote sinks) and lost in 16.  

I think a similar situation is due for Trump. The mix of alt-right/racists, alt-left/hippies, and old school neocons/elites in the cabinet probably cause distorted messaging in the backdrop of a very narrow congress.

Even if he does relatively well, people will have a lot of secondary concerns.

[หมูเด้ง]

The Donald and the Republican Party have raised the stakes tremendously with these crazy promises.

If they go through with things they said, it stands to reason that even with eventual success, there are still going to be a lot of moving parts in this "new order" they've proclaimed. If they go through with steep tariffs and mass deportations, labor and import markets will be affected. If they repeal Obamacare, several people will lose their healthcare. If they "clean house" and remove certain leadership or do away with certain departments all together, there will be new standards and procedures that will cause growing pains. These are mostly short term problems for someone who has a vision of how they want something(and I doubt anyone in the new administration or Republican party has such a vision) that could get fixed, but the electorate is impatient in this country, if nothing else.

If they don't go through with it, many people will defect from supporting them and say they didn't follow through with their promises and are just as corrupt as "The Swamp" their perspective has of Washington.

Or they can try to sell their version of tax cuts, banning middle class bankruptcy, and banning internet betting to the electorate in 2026.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pure Trump fatigue. There is a seething hatred of Trump that is separate from his governance that will boil within the educated, informed voter and have them turnout against him and his party.

Not to mention that abortion remains salient since Democrats aren't going to get to codify Roe.

2026 will be a blue wave to some degree, good economy or not. Just like 2018.

[darklordoftech]

Whatever they ran on in 2022.

[Ljube]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Biden administration is the most incompetent administration since Carter.

I don't think Trump administration is going to be incompetent, just like his first administration wasn't incompetent.

[หมูเด้ง]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Biden administration is the most incompetent administration since Carter.

I don't think Trump administration is going to be incompetent, just like his first administration wasn't incompetent.

It killed 2,000,000 Americans. In before “but abortion”.

[Crane]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Biden administration is the most incompetent administration since Carter.

I don't think Trump administration is going to be incompetent, just like his first administration wasn't incompetent.

The idiot's re-election has really emboldened people who don't have a clue.

[Spectator]

Competence like they did in 2018. Trump’s administration being incompetent is basically a guarantee.

Biden administration is the most incompetent administration since Carter.

I don't think Trump administration is going to be incompetent, just like his first administration wasn't incompetent.

Americans disagreed with you on the second count. They tossed him out after all.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We have income inequality it's not doing okay do you know how many homeless people there are. The Rs are gonna cut services that's what Ds run on hope

[Sir Mohamed]

Orange man bad

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As stated before there is mass Homelessness due to income inequality because the taxes on the rich is too low, the Ds always have a platform to run on. As soon as Trump institute his tax cuts and cuts he will be unpopular again. The Rs don't have any pickups for Govs

[Vern]

Democrats will once again run on Trump is a threat to democracy and their woke agenda. Causing 2026 to be a wash.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats will once again run on Trump is a threat to democracy and their woke agenda. Causing 2026 to be a wash.

This is my baseline assumption- no one will really get a "wave again until the next economic crash (which IMO will be downstream of peak social security/Medicare usage in the early-mid 2030's).  So I expect all elections will be closely contested for the foreseeable future.

This isn't all bad news for Dems as they would easily flip the House in a nearly even environment and may have an EC advantage in 2028 at the point of maximum malapportionment from the 2020 census and all the subsequent movement to the South. 

[New World Man]

People like Meeks,Van Orden and others will have to defend voting to cut the ACA,food stamps,aid to families)in order to give tax cuts to the wealthiest. Under Biden they could cast protest votes. Also,none will be able to cast symbolic no votes because they are so low in numbers.

[ottermax]

In 2018 Democrats focused on healthcare in many races.

Honestly, a similar focus on healthcare, social security, and other basic government functions will likely be the path forward given that it is palatable to the corporate donors while still scratching the "economic case" for the Democrats.

There will also likely be a focus on government competence especially over any mistakes that occur which are undoubtedly going to happen.

I suspect abortion will be less prominent.

[Doomer]

They should continue to cave to progressives and wokeness.

Make sure to define their pronouns.

Kidding.

[GAinDC]

I mean, that was the landscape in 2018 and Dems sill did fine

Midterm environments are almost always hostile for the party in power, regardless of what's happening in America.

That could actually explain the 70s and 80s where Democrats were able to get majorities in Congress because things never really got bad and so Republican Presidents were getting reelected.

You think inflation is bad now? Try the 70s and early 80s. Republicans were lucky that Carter got the worst of it.

[หมูเด้ง]

In 2018 Democrats focused on healthcare in many races.

Honestly, a similar focus on healthcare, social security, and other basic government functions will likely be the path forward given that it is palatable to the corporate donors while still scratching the "economic case" for the Democrats.

There will also likely be a focus on government competence especially over any mistakes that occur which are undoubtedly going to happen.

I suspect abortion will be less prominent.

Both parties have probably more or less gone as far as they can on abortion, drug reform, and the status of homosexuals.


Republicans have a mandate on the treatment of the transgendered and managing race relations.