Outside redistricting, will any US House seats flip D-->R in 2026?

[Atlas Force]

I think 2006 is the only election in history where Republicans did not gain a seat previously held by Democrats.  It's very rare.  Even in big midterm waves like 1994 and 2010 there were a few flips from red to blue:

1994- John Baldacci (ME 2), Bill Luther (MN 6), Mike Doyle (PA 18), Patrick Kennedy (RI 1)

2010- John Carney (DE), Colleen Hanabusa (HI 1), Cedric Richmond (LA 2)

2006 was the only House election cycle where only one party flipped seats, period.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

We could see 10-15 Latino district Dems lose if trends continue on the disastrous trajectory they're currently on. I don't think this is particularly likely but it can't be discounted.

[Tekken_Guy]

Florida has a lot of new house seats on the table for the GOP too, Darren Soto's seat, the Tampa seat, and the three Jewish seats in South Florida are all possible targets in the future.

[Atlas Force]

For comparison’s sake, in 2022 the only R-to-D flip I don’t think can be attributed entirely/mostly to redistricting/gerrymandering was WA-03, which was an open seat where an extremist beat the Republican incumbent in the primary.

In 2014 the R-to-D flips were CA-31 (was only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats got locked out two years earlier), FL-02 (the Graham name), and NE-02 (Lee Terry said some really out-of-touch things during the shutdown, and Ashford had previously been a Republican anyway). In 2010 the R-to-D flips were DE-AL (open seat in a blue state with a retiring Republican overperformer), HI-01 (only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats split the vote and allowed a Republican to win in a special earlier that year), and LA-02 (rental from William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson, whose situation actually seems like a pretty good comparison to Cuellar’s).

So by that logic, only 2014 really had flips in seats that leant towards the incumbent party (also WA-03 in 2022).

I’d say that out of these examples, NE-02 2014 has the smallest asterisk, it comes the closest to checking both boxes of being in a purple district and being Generic R vs Generic D.

[oldtimer]

The list of Trump Democrats isn't small, perhaps it's possible in heavy minority seats:

https://twitter.com/prtwunk/status/1858590607310012505

[ProgressiveModerate]

Aside from those already mentioned, I don't think MGP is safe at all. She won by only four points in a Trumpy district against one of the worst possible R candidates. If a stronger candidate jumps in, she's in a dogfight.

Yeah I agree with this, but Republicans need to actually recruit a good candidate.

But Harris only lost that seat by like 3%.  I think MGP should win in 2026.

It's one of the few Congressional Districts nationally that appears to have actually shifted left from 2020 Pres too which is somewhat suprising.

[Compuzled_One]

The list of Trump Democrats isn't small, perhaps it's possible in heavy minority seats:

https://twitter.com/prtwunk/status/1858590607310012505

Sheesh.

Hopefully it doesn't happen, and many of these are strong incumbents, but while I do think Dems will get 230+/-5 seats in the end, a 2022 redux definitely seems possible with this.

[Talleyrand]

How blue would an SLC-based district be under a court-drawn map?

[CentristRepublican]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

There's a non-zero chance Cueller ends up being arrested and just calls it quits.

The thing is RGV has some midterm dynamics that could Suprise us. In 2022 much of South TX actually shifted left from 2020 Pres - perhaps Republican voters in the region are really just super low propensity.

For this reason I think Cuellar survives 2026 assuming he makes it out of the primary. He'd be done in 2028 though.

[CentristRepublican]

The list of Trump Democrats isn't small, perhaps it's possible in heavy minority seats:

https://twitter.com/prtwunk/status/1858590607310012505

Pou won by 5, pretty impressive for an open seat