Outside redistricting, will any US House seats flip D-->R in 2026?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Dems losing OH-09 because Rs redraw the Ohio congressional map doesn't count.

In 2018, Republicans only narrowly flipped 2 districts - both were districts Trump carried by double digits with retiring Democrat incumbents.

This cycle, it appears there will be quite a lot of Trump 2024 district Democrats, however, most of these districts only voted for Trump marginally (<5%). However, it's also possible certain Democratic incumbents in some of these seats retire, possibly to pursue higher office (i.e. Jared Golden).

It also seems like there were certain seats Republicans largely ignored this cycle but where they overperformed and may more seriously target in 2026. TX-28 is a great example of this.

There's also the possibility a blue wave just doesn't manifest, and we get a 2022 style election where perhaps Democrats flip the House but by an underwhelming margin.

Between all of this, I'm going to lean towards yes, there will be some seat that flips D--R.

[Spectator]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

[Skill and Chance]

The other 2 Rio Grande Valley seats?

[Tekken_Guy]

Outside the RGV I think Suozzi could be particularly vulnerable. He barely won re-election in what was drawn as a soft D gerrymander of his seat despite zero real investment from the NRCC, and it zoomed all the way from Biden+11 to Trump+5.

[PALiberal]

Outside the RGV I think Suozzi could be particularly vulnerable. He barely won re-election in what was drawn as a soft D gerrymander of his seat despite zero real investment from the NRCC, and it zoomed all the way from Biden+11 to Trump+5.

If George Santos could win the seat, then any republican can really.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

There's a non-zero chance Cueller ends up being arrested and just calls it quits.

The thing is RGV has some midterm dynamics that could Suprise us. In 2022 much of South TX actually shifted left from 2020 Pres - perhaps Republican voters in the region are really just super low propensity.

[MargieCat]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

There's a non-zero chance Cueller ends up being arrested and just calls it quits.

The thing is RGV has some midterm dynamics that could Suprise us. In 2022 much of South TX actually shifted left from 2020 Pres - perhaps Republican voters in the region are really just super low propensity.

I think there are a lot of low-propensity Trump-only voters down there.

[Compuzled_One]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

There's a non-zero chance Cueller ends up being arrested and just calls it quits.

The thing is RGV has some midterm dynamics that could Suprise us. In 2022 much of South TX actually shifted left from 2020 Pres - perhaps Republican voters in the region are really just super low propensity.

Wasn't Cuellar arrested already?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If Kaptur retires, then OH-09 is definitely one to watch.

[New World Man]

The only one I would consider in real danger is ME-2 if Golden leaves.

[lfromnj]

If Kaptur retires, then OH-09 is definitely one to watch.

There is redistricting in Ohio 9th though.

[Atlas Force]

ME-02 is a probable flip if Golden goes for Senate or governor. Cuellar should lose if Rs actually take his race seriously. I think he might be in the reddest seat held by a Democrat now. There's a risk of Hochul dragging the slate down in NY again as well.

There's a non-zero chance Cueller ends up being arrested and just calls it quits.

The thing is RGV has some midterm dynamics that could Suprise us. In 2022 much of South TX actually shifted left from 2020 Pres - perhaps Republican voters in the region are really just super low propensity.

Wasn't Cuellar arrested already?

He was indicted, not arrested. The trial was delayed until after the election

[Tekken_Guy]

If Kaptur retires, then OH-09 is definitely one to watch.

There is redistricting in Ohio 9th though.

And OH-09 could easily flip GOP in its current form.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Cuellar is definitely one to watch especially since this latest shift of Hispanics basically voted GOP down ballot other than his race, unlike in 2020. I agree the New York races could be a surprise too if Hochul underperforms again, it's just too early to say though so I'm surprised the poll is unanimous, there aren't really any obvious "MN-08s" this time.

[lfromnj]

Cuellar is definitely one to watch especially since this latest shift of Hispanics basically voted GOP down ballot other than his race, unlike in 2020. I agree the New York races could be a surprise too if Hochul underperforms again, it's just too early to say though so I'm surprised the poll is unanimous, there aren't really any obvious "MN-08s" this time.

De la Cruz actually managed to match Trump in 2020 .

[Spectator]

Cuellar is definitely one to watch especially since this latest shift of Hispanics basically voted GOP down ballot other than his race, unlike in 2020. I agree the New York races could be a surprise too if Hochul underperforms again, it's just too early to say though so I'm surprised the poll is unanimous, there aren't really any obvious "MN-08s" this time.

TX-28 is my early MN-08 of 2026. Dunno the Trump numbers there yet, but wouldn’t be shocked if he won by double digits. Plus if Cuellar goes to jail, that seems a tough lift for a Dem in an open seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cuellar is definitely one to watch especially since this latest shift of Hispanics basically voted GOP down ballot other than his race, unlike in 2020. I agree the New York races could be a surprise too if Hochul underperforms again, it's just too early to say though so I'm surprised the poll is unanimous, there aren't really any obvious "MN-08s" this time.

TX-28 is my early MN-08 of 2026. Dunno the Trump numbers there yet, but wouldn’t be shocked if he won by double digits. Plus if Cuellar goes to jail, that seems a tough lift for a Dem in an open seat.

Also the bench in that district is actually pretty stacked. Cassy Garcia, Pete Flores, John Lujan, Ryan Guillen, to name a few.

[Atlas Force]

For comparison’s sake, in 2022 the only R-to-D flip I don’t think can be attributed entirely/mostly to redistricting/gerrymandering was WA-03, which was an open seat where an extremist beat the Republican incumbent in the primary.

In 2014 the R-to-D flips were CA-31 (was only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats got locked out two years earlier), FL-02 (the Graham name), and NE-02 (Lee Terry said some really out-of-touch things during the shutdown, and Ashford had previously been a Republican anyway). In 2010 the R-to-D flips were DE-AL (open seat in a blue state with a retiring Republican overperformer), HI-01 (only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats split the vote and allowed a Republican to win in a special earlier that year), and LA-02 (rental from William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson, whose situation actually seems like a pretty good comparison to Cuellar’s).

[Tekken_Guy]

For comparison’s sake, in 2022 the only R-to-D flip I don’t think can be attributed entirely/mostly to redistricting/gerrymandering was WA-03, which was an open seat where an extremist beat the Republican incumbent in the primary.

In 2014 the R-to-D flips were CA-31 (was only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats got locked out two years earlier), FL-02 (the Graham name), and NE-02 (Lee Terry said some really out-of-touch things during the shutdown, and Ashford had previously been a Republican anyway). In 2010 the R-to-D flips were DE-AL (open seat in a blue state with a retiring Republican overperformer), HI-01 (only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats split the vote and allowed a Republican to win in a special earlier that year), and LA-02 (rental from William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson, whose situation actually seems like a pretty good comparison to Cuellar’s).

2018’s only non-redistricting related R flip were open Trump seats in rural Minnesota. 2020’s only non-redistricting D flip was a leftward-zooming seat in Gwinnett County, GA.

[Talleyrand]

Aside from those already mentioned, I don't think MGP is safe at all. She won by only four points in a Trumpy district against one of the worst possible R candidates. If a stronger candidate jumps in, she's in a dogfight.

[Fight! Fight! Fight!]

I think 2006 is the only election in history where Republicans did not gain a seat previously held by Democrats.  It's very rare.  Even in big midterm waves like 1994 and 2010 there were a few flips from red to blue:

1994- John Baldacci (ME 2), Bill Luther (MN 6), Mike Doyle (PA 18), Patrick Kennedy (RI 1)

2010- John Carney (DE), Colleen Hanabusa (HI 1), Cedric Richmond (LA 2)

[Zenobiyl]

Golden or Cuellar’s seat

[morgieb]

For comparison’s sake, in 2022 the only R-to-D flip I don’t think can be attributed entirely/mostly to redistricting/gerrymandering was WA-03, which was an open seat where an extremist beat the Republican incumbent in the primary.

In 2014 the R-to-D flips were CA-31 (was only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats got locked out two years earlier), FL-02 (the Graham name), and NE-02 (Lee Terry said some really out-of-touch things during the shutdown, and Ashford had previously been a Republican anyway). In 2010 the R-to-D flips were DE-AL (open seat in a blue state with a retiring Republican overperformer), HI-01 (only Republican-held in the first place because Democrats split the vote and allowed a Republican to win in a special earlier that year), and LA-02 (rental from William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson, whose situation actually seems like a pretty good comparison to Cuellar’s).

So by that logic, only 2014 really had flips in seats that leant towards the incumbent party (also WA-03 in 2022).

Right now there aren't any LA-02/CA-31 style flukes but there are a couple of seats like MN-01/08, I suppose. Golden (if he goes Senate) and Cuellar's seats both stand out as possible options.

If you want someone who hasn't been mentioned, Jim Costa's seat gives vague Lee Terry vibes - bit of an underperformer, and the kind of seat where turnout might not be the Dem's friend even in a D year.

I don't think a Gwen Graham equivalent really exists for the Republican's (though if Tom Kean jr wasn't already in the House...), whereas I think the Dems are generally smart enough to avoid suicidal primary decisions like Kent beating JHB.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Aside from those already mentioned, I don't think MGP is safe at all. She won by only four points in a Trumpy district against one of the worst possible R candidates. If a stronger candidate jumps in, she's in a dogfight.

Yeah I agree with this, but Republicans need to actually recruit a good candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

Aside from those already mentioned, I don't think MGP is safe at all. She won by only four points in a Trumpy district against one of the worst possible R candidates. If a stronger candidate jumps in, she's in a dogfight.

Yeah I agree with this, but Republicans need to actually recruit a good candidate.

But Harris only lost that seat by like 3%.  I think MGP should win in 2026.