The Case For Casey Winning

[EternalOptimistPopulist]

NBC reports 25,000 votes remaining with McCormick up by 17,000. Casey closed.

[coloradocowboi]

It hopeless from the beginning.

That being said, can the Kakyoin hate please come to an end? It serves no purpose in the forum except to give it the feel of a very annoying and cliquey model UN. You can tell somebody they are wrong without the theatrics and all that. This place is becoming the real housewives of nobody cares

[Doomer]

That being said, can the Kakyoin hate please come to an end? It serves no purpose in the forum except to give it the feel of a very annoying and cliquey model UN. You can tell somebody they are wrong without the theatrics and all that. This place is becoming the real housewives of nobody cares

I agree that there's a time for teasing and a time to stop teasing and people need to know when to stop.

But also, that person brought this on themselves with ultra-over-the-top-confidence and mocking anyone who disagreed that the situation was so rosy when the truth was there for anyone willing to open their eyes.

[Accordion Hazard]

To reiterate McCormick has a lead of 17,430 votes. Casey would require the following margins for the following votes remaining to win:

25k=D+70
50k=D+35
75k=D+23

Now let’s be charitable and say a recount narrows the margin by 2,430 for a neat R+15k topline. Then Casey would require the following margins for the following votes remaining to win:

25k=D+60
50k=D+30
75k=D+20

To give some context since 11/9/24 an additional 81,571 votes have been counted and Casey has won them by D+29.5, if you narrow it to midday on 11/15/24 to now its 13,722 ballots with Casey winning them by D+38.1 instead.

If there is 50k votes out I’d say that the race was a toss-up or even that Casey is slightly favored. Its not impossible that there is that much out, either due to ballots still making their way through the system, or to Casey winning legal battles to move stacks of ballots from ‘won’t be counted’ to ‘yet to be counted’. But sources don't say the former and the latter is ambiguous at best.

NBC pegs it at 25k. If that assessment is correct, and we’re charitable and have Casey win them by D+40, then you’d get a final outcome of McCormick winning by 7,430 votes, or 5,000 if we assume that very favorable recount outcome. Narrower than FL-2018 but not changing the outcome. The only way Casey wins at this point is if there is a significant gap between the NBC estimate and what happens in the end due to bookkeeping or legal shifts or whatever.

Casey can and should exhaust his legal options because it seems very possible that if every rejected ballot was accepted he'd win. Or even just some of them. I recall earlier mention of a judge rejecting 7k provisionals in Philadelphia alone, which might not even be comprehensive for Philadelphia. That alone could shave 4k off McCormicks' margin, which if combined with the above assumptions about remaining un-rejected ballots and recounts would see McCormick's margin reduced to 3,430 or 1,000 votes.

[VALibertarian]

That being said, can the Kakyoin hate please come to an end? It serves no purpose in the forum except to give it the feel of a very annoying and cliquey model UN. You can tell somebody they are wrong without the theatrics and all that. This place is becoming the real housewives of nobody cares

I agree that there's a time for teasing and a time to stop teasing and people need to know when to stop.

But also, that person brought this on themselves with ultra-over-the-top-confidence and mocking anyone who disagreed that the situation was so rosy when the truth was there for anyone willing to open their eyes.

When Kakyo goes back and apologizes for their rampant trolling in the 2024 election board, including a lot of unhinged stupid threads that served no purpose except to clog it up, then they deserve to have the mocking stop.

Having said that, please PLEASE go hard on endorsing Spanberger for next year friend:)

[Virginiá]

When Kakyo goes back and apologizes for their rampant trolling in the 2024 election board, including a lot of unhinged stupid threads that served no purpose except to clog it up, then they deserve to have the mocking stop.

Having said that, please PLEASE go hard on endorsing Spanberger for next year friend:)

I don't really know if trolling is the best way to describe this. I mean, maybe they are trolling, but other chronic doomers/optimists we've had over the years did that schtick for ...literally years, and some still to this day. At that point, I think we're beyond trolling, and the poster is being genuine even if they are extremely annoying and sometimes disruptive to threads.

If someone does stuff like this for years and is just trolling, then that is really sad. Such an enormous waste of time for something so petty that I would deeply embarrassed if anyone IRL ever found out I did that. Hard to wrap my head around something as profoundly weird as spending hours and hours every week for months or even years just screwing with strangers on a small community on the internet.

[MillennialModerate]

That being said, can the Kakyoin hate please come to an end? It serves no purpose in the forum except to give it the feel of a very annoying and cliquey model UN. You can tell somebody they are wrong without the theatrics and all that. This place is becoming the real housewives of nobody cares

I agree that there's a time for teasing and a time to stop teasing and people need to know when to stop.

But also, that person brought this on themselves with ultra-over-the-top-confidence and mocking anyone who disagreed that the situation was so rosy when the truth was there for anyone willing to open their eyes.

When Kakyo goes back and apologizes for their rampant trolling in the 2024 election board, including a lot of unhinged stupid threads that served no purpose except to clog it up, then they deserve to have the mocking stop.

BINGO. Im not going to derail the thread and go on and on but Im going to reply once to this

Ever since 2016 when I went from an interest in politics to a feeling of terrible dread on
election nights - I've generally assumed all things being equal - the worst would happen.

(Kind of like how I used to be the cockiest football fan alive until Ohio State-Florida and Super Bowl 42 happened within 12 months of each other)

So yes, I confess that while I do my best to analyze everything electorally reasonably but if everything is equal YES, I'm inclined to think negatively because of the way the electorate has changed into almost a delusional level of double standard.

BUT I come on here and give my GENUINE opinions. I got a little out of hand with my reverse psychology paranoia with Georgia in 2020. But otherwise my takes on here are real and genuine and not meant to annoy or antagonize or anything of the sort - and have logic behind them. Yet I have CONSTANTLY been mocked and ridiculed anytime I dared speak of potential Democratic misfortune (except when it was painfully obvious - then it was allowed and then only to a degree)

So much so that I was randomly banned from the 2024 page in early October (I can say hand on heart Im not sure which post triggered it). I found it ridiculous but accepted it cause I thought.. maybe mods are just being extra strict to maintain control during the sites busiest time.

But in regards to Kakyo... as October went on and his posts became more and more and more blatant. I mean CLEAR trolling. Youd be hard pressed to find a fair minded person to find it otherwise. But it was laughed off by some as "I admire his dedication to the bit" and straight out just allowed by those in charge ... a clear double standard seemed to emerge.

I mean.. we were past midnight on election night and he is saying Harris is going to win this? Etc Etc. It really was beyond the pale.

It just sent a bad message at least to me, that blatant trolling in one direction is allowed but genuine opinions in the other direction will only be tolerated to some degree. The great part of this forum is the ability to talk about politics in an intelligent and insightful manner with people from all political persuasions and backgrounds. Even as a (admittedly moderate) Dem, I would hate for it to turn into the Democratic version of what Twitter has become.


So while Kayko being mocked can get tiresome - I think what breeds the mocking is the double standard. I dont THINK its intentionally a double standard.. I think its natural human instinct to give more of a leash to those you agree with - or those who push a narrative you WANT to believe (similar to how right wingers tolerate Trumps corruption and light the world on fire at the first sign of a Dem being corrupt) but it would be helpful in the future - as we get closer and closer to elections in the next cycle - if in a constructive manner we re-examined such actions and policies.

[Virginiá]

So while Kayko being mocked can get tiresome - I think what breeds the mocking is the double standard. I dont THINK its intentionally a double standard.. I think its natural human instinct to give more of a leash to those you agree with - or those who push a narrative you WANT to believe (similar to how right wingers tolerate Trumps corruption and light the world on fire at the first sign of a Dem being corrupt) but it would be helpful in the future - as we get closer and closer to elections in the next cycle - if in a constructive manner we re-examined such actions and policies.

Kayko was muted from all presidential elections-related boards for a few days in October. And has had a number of their posts moderated. It's not a double standard. It's not really that different than you, to be honest. They are just newer, and you've been choking up election threads with "oh god Republicans win everything" for practically every election cycle we've had since 2017.

I suppose it only looks like a double standard to you because you don't have access to the same information mods do and evidently never considered that before airing your opinion.

[coloradocowboi]

When Kakyo goes back and apologizes for their rampant trolling in the 2024 election board, including a lot of unhinged stupid threads that served no purpose except to clog it up, then they deserve to have the mocking stop.

Having said that, please PLEASE go hard on endorsing Spanberger for next year friend:)

I don't really know if trolling is the best way to describe this. I mean, maybe they are trolling, but other chronic doomers/optimists we've had over the years did that schtick for ...literally years, and some still to this day. At that point, I think we're beyond trolling, and the poster is being genuine even if they are extremely annoying and sometimes disruptive to threads.

If someone does stuff like this for years and is just trolling, then that is really sad. Such an enormous waste of time for something so petty that I would deeply embarrassed if anyone IRL ever found out I did that. Hard to wrap my head around something as profoundly weird as spending hours and hours every week for months or even years just screwing with strangers on a small community on the internet.

I agree with all of this. But I also believe in karma. Those interacting with posters who cause offense, especially through anger, disdain, rivalry, argument, only perpetuate the samsara of "who cares" for the rest of us. I can't even remember who I argued with over what a few months ago and other people here are like dredging up years-old predictions to one up and insult each other. It just feels like Atlas has gotten a little bit of the outrage machine virus, which is funny because its' unnecessary here given how unmonetized this forum's activity is lol

Nobody needs an apology or "accountability" from Kakyoin for their bad takes. That's a little absurd. If that's how (the impersonal) you feel, (the impersonal) you need to exercise the "ignore" button and try some weed if it's legal in your state.

[RJ]

Getting back to the issue at hand, I'm curious to know how many outstanding votes are left particularly from Philadelphia county. Harris still pulled 78% of the vote there in spite of losing statewide and it stands to reason Casey could do the same, even if he is currently at a little over 78% there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Even Bill Nelson conceded at this point in 2018 and his race was nearly 10k closer.

[MillennialModerate]

Even Bill Nelson conceded at this point in 2018 and his race was nearly 10k closer.

The real outrage is how long this is taking.

It only breeds the conspiracies...

If you have tens of thousands left from Philadelphia then it stands to reason Casey could win and in that respect why would he concede? But if those votes arent out then yes he should give it up

[Flyersfan232]

Even Bill Nelson conceded at this point in 2018 and his race was nearly 10k closer.

The real outrage is how long this is taking.

It only breeds the conspiracies...

If you have tens of thousands left from Philadelphia then it stands to reason Casey could win and in that respect why would he concede? But if those votes arent out then yes he should give it up

you think shapiro would be for a florida style counting system oh wait mr tweeting when all the votes are count trump will lose a swing state right be fore a close election dont give two sh**ts about enabling conspiracies for his own benefit

[RRusso1982]

https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/11/pa-supreme-court-no-counting-of-undated-mail-in-ballots-in-just-completed-election.html

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court just again ordered the counties to stop counting the illegal votes.  I wonder if the commissioners will listen.  If they don't they will be in contempt and can sit in jail.

[Joe Biden 2028]

I'm confused, how could they have a recount if the first vote isn't finished being counted?

[Progressive Pessimist]

If you didn't make this thread, and others related to the 2024 elections, he would have won.

[PALiberal]

If you didn't make this thread, and others related to the 2024 elections, he would have won.

Imagine if one Atlas user actually had the power to reverse jinx any election Irl. (Should be me)

[Progressive Pessimist]

If you didn't make this thread, and others related to the 2024 elections, he would have won.

Imagine if one Atlas user actually had the power to reverse jinx any election Irl. (Should be me)

It used to be SnowLabrador, actually. Him being banned doomed the country.

[David Hume]

https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/11/pa-supreme-court-no-counting-of-undated-mail-in-ballots-in-just-completed-election.html

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court just again ordered the counties to stop counting the illegal votes.  I wonder if the commissioners will listen.  If they don't they will be in contempt and can sit in jail.

At this point even if those counties somehow find Casey enough votes to win, the 5-2 Dem PASC would rule him lose for sure.

I find it hard to understand PADem's action. They are hurting them in the long term and providing GOP the needed evidences that Dems are openly defying the law to steal the election.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Even Bill Nelson conceded at this point in 2018 and his race was nearly 10k closer.

The real outrage is how long this is taking.

It only breeds the conspiracies...

If you have tens of thousands left from Philadelphia then it stands to reason Casey could win and in that respect why would he concede? But if those votes arent out then yes he should give it up

you think shapiro would be for a florida style counting system oh wait mr tweeting when all the votes are count trump will lose a swing state right be fore a close election dont give two sh**ts about enabling conspiracies for his own benefit

The Pennsylvania legislature has refused to speed up the counting process.

[MT Treasurer]

I really think Casey had an inflated ego and was privately despised by his Republican colleagues (don’t forget that PA was - embarrassingly enough - the only swing state McConnell's SLF prioritized from the get-go, and my best guess is that animosity toward Casey had at least something to do with that).

[Spectator]

KaykyoinmemeHouse strikes again with their predictions

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I really think Casey had an inflated ego and was privately despised by his Republican colleagues (don’t forget that PA was - embarrassingly enough - the only swing state McConnell's SLF prioritized from the get-go, and my best guess is that animosity toward Casey had at least something to do with that).

Casey was so bad that Trump, Bush, Rove, and Mastriano all teamed up to elect McCormick.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

KaykyoinmemeHouse strikes again with their predictions

I was right that Gaetz was gonna get pulled, his successor would be moderate, and that John Duarte would lose.

[RJ]

Looks like Casey has conceded.