The Case For Casey Winning

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

As it stands in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Dave McCormick holds a lead of about 17,432 votes, or 0.25%, over incumbent Bob Casey. However, despite DDHQ and AP calling the race for McCormick, there was an estimated 80k votes left to count, mainly provisional, mail-in, and absentee, from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with a recount underway.

While some of this vote has been counted since, not all of it has in fact been counted, and much seemingly still remains. Thus far, these votes have skewed quite heavily in Casey's favor, allowing him to not-insignificantly narrow the margin. For reference, McCormick held a margin of 34k votes over Casey mere days ago.

Now, this isn't me saying Casey WILL win, but i certainly think it is unwise at this point to call it a lock for McCormick, especially since the amount of votes left is unclear and based on estimates, meaning it could be lower or higher.

[Spectator]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

I will say, if Casey does somehow come back from this, then it will be the comeback of the year.
And an egg in the face of all those who predicted he couldn't make up the difference.
If there is 80k votes left, then calling the race is in fact irresponsible.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

Wow.
Then the calls do seem premature.

[Spectator]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

Wednesday was 3 days ago.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

Wednesday was 3 days ago.

Indeed, but its safe to assume tens of thousands are still left of that.

[Spectator]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

Wednesday was 3 days ago.

Indeed, but its safe to assume tens of thousands are still left of that.

LOL, no it's not, not unless we know how many for sure remain. There's a chance Casey can win, I'll grant you, but 80k remaining is much different from 50k remaining.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

Per the NYT:

"The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate."

Wednesday was 3 days ago.

Indeed, but its safe to assume tens of thousands are still left of that.

LOL, no it's not, not unless we know how many for sure remain. There's a chance Casey can win, I'll grant you, but 80k remaining is much different from 50k remaining.

Both are larger than McCormick's margin.

[america is tariffied]

As it stands in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Dave McCormick holds a lead of about 17,432 votes, or 0.25%, over incumbent Bob Casey. However, despite DDHQ and AP calling the race for McCormick, there was an estimated 80k votes left to count, mainly provisional, mail-in, and absentee, from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with a recount underway.

While some of this vote has been counted since, not all of it has in fact been counted, and much seemingly still remains. Thus far, these votes have skewed quite heavily in Casey's favor, allowing him to not-insignificantly narrow the margin. For reference, McCormick held a margin of 34k votes over Casey mere days ago.

Now, this isn't me saying Casey WILL win, but i certainly think it is unwise at this point to call it a lock for McCormick, especially since the amount of votes left is unclear and based on estimates, meaning it could be lower or higher.

Do you never learn?

You still haven't acknowledged that you called every swing state in the Presidential election wrong.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

As it stands in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Dave McCormick holds a lead of about 17,432 votes, or 0.25%, over incumbent Bob Casey. However, despite DDHQ and AP calling the race for McCormick, there was an estimated 80k votes left to count, mainly provisional, mail-in, and absentee, from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with a recount underway.

While some of this vote has been counted since, not all of it has in fact been counted, and much seemingly still remains. Thus far, these votes have skewed quite heavily in Casey's favor, allowing him to not-insignificantly narrow the margin. For reference, McCormick held a margin of 34k votes over Casey mere days ago.

Now, this isn't me saying Casey WILL win, but i certainly think it is unwise at this point to call it a lock for McCormick, especially since the amount of votes left is unclear and based on estimates, meaning it could be lower or higher.

Do you never learn?

You still haven't acknowledged that you called every swing state in the Presidential election wrong.

What's with your obsession with me? You've seemingly centered your entire presence here around me, including your display name, and your posts, considering the fact that you seem to only come out of the woodwork when you feel the need to respond to me.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

My biggest problem with this thread is that there was a huge missed opportunity for a pun in the thread title.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As it stands in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Dave McCormick holds a lead of about 17,432 votes, or 0.25%, over incumbent Bob Casey. However, despite DDHQ and AP calling the race for McCormick, there was an estimated 80k votes left to count, mainly provisional, mail-in, and absentee, from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with a recount underway.

While some of this vote has been counted since, not all of it has in fact been counted, and much seemingly still remains. Thus far, these votes have skewed quite heavily in Casey's favor, allowing him to not-insignificantly narrow the margin. For reference, McCormick held a margin of 34k votes over Casey mere days ago.

Now, this isn't me saying Casey WILL win, but i certainly think it is unwise at this point to call it a lock for McCormick, especially since the amount of votes left is unclear and based on estimates, meaning it could be lower or higher.

Do you never learn?

You still haven't acknowledged that you called every swing state in the Presidential election wrong.

What's with your obsession with me? You've seemingly centered your entire presence here around me, including your display name, and your posts, considering the fact that you seem to only come out of the woodwork when you feel the need to respond to me.

Do you never learn?

You still haven't acknowledged that you arrogantly called every swing state in the Presidential election wrong.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And with this thread, McCormick is the sure winner.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

So some important deadlines here:

All counties must certify results by Nov. 19
A recount must begin by Nov. 20
The recount must be completed by Nov. 26
Final election certification post recount is due Nov. 27

One thing I will also note is that a lot of provisional ballots will end up not being counted.

[Accordion Hazard]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

That's kind of the issue. NYT stated "The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate. " Since then 75,976 votes have been counted, which would imply just 4,524 votes left.

However its unclear if NYT's was correct, comprehensive, or counts/doesn't count ballots which may or may not be counted. NBC's topline currently pegs it at 25k, which would be markedly less than the 50-60k or so Casey probably needs to win, but markedly more than what NYT currently implies.

One thing I will also note is that a lot of provisional ballots will end up not being counted.

That's sort of the area of uncertainty. My impression is that you have ballots as either:

A: Actual tally of counted ballots
B: Remaining ballots to tabulate.
C: Ballots in a state of limbo pending judicial review if not outright litigation.

If C is actually part of B, then Casey is screwed as it means B can only go down. If C is separate and significant, then Casey in theory has a chance up until the SCOTUS pulls a Bush v Gore redux and goes STOP THE COUNT.

[Spectator]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

That's kind of the issue. NYT stated "The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate. " Since then 75,976 votes have been counted, which would imply just 4,524 votes left.

However its unclear if NYT's was correct, comprehensive, or counts/doesn't count ballots which may or may not be counted. NBC's topline currently pegs it at 25k, which would be markedly less than the 50-60k or so Casey probably needs to win, but markedly more than what NYT currently implies.

One thing I will also note is that a lot of provisional ballots will end up not being counted.

That's sort of the area of uncertainty. My impression is that you have ballots as either:

A: Actual tally of counted ballots
B: Remaining ballots to tabulate.
C: Ballots in a state of limbo pending judicial review if not outright litigation.

If C is actually part of B, then Casey is screwed as it means B can only go down. If C is separate and significant, then Casey in theory has a chance up until the SCOTUS pulls a Bush v Gore redux and goes STOP THE COUNT.

Yikes, if there's only 25k votes left to count, Casey's cooked. 50k or more, especially disproportionately located in Philly and Pittsburgh, is prolly what he needs.

[MT Treasurer]

You‘re the GOP's biggest asset, KakyointheMemeHouse — looking forward to your 2026 predictions

[america is tariffied]

You‘re the GOP's biggest asset, KakyointheMemeHouse — looking forward to your 2026 predictions

"dems win every house and senate seat both federally and state"

[Zenobiyl]

The kiss of death

[icc]

Just from a quick look back - the reduction in McCormick’s lead from 21,984 to 17,501 was through the tabulation of 12,021 ballots cast for the two main candidates, and I guess a handful extra for others.

Meanwhile NBC now estimates there are 25,000 ballots outstanding.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the source on that 80k votes out? Presumably a large chunk of that was eaten up already with the margin being cut down to 17.5k.

That's kind of the issue. NYT stated "The votes counted by Wednesday did not include an additional 80,500 provisional, mail-in and absentee ballots that counties still needed to tabulate. " Since then 75,976 votes have been counted, which would imply just 4,524 votes left.

However its unclear if NYT's was correct, comprehensive, or counts/doesn't count ballots which may or may not be counted. NBC's topline currently pegs it at 25k, which would be markedly less than the 50-60k or so Casey probably needs to win, but markedly more than what NYT currently implies.

One thing I will also note is that a lot of provisional ballots will end up not being counted.

That's sort of the area of uncertainty. My impression is that you have ballots as either:

A: Actual tally of counted ballots
B: Remaining ballots to tabulate.
C: Ballots in a state of limbo pending judicial review if not outright litigation.

If C is actually part of B, then Casey is screwed as it means B can only go down. If C is separate and significant, then Casey in theory has a chance up until the SCOTUS pulls a Bush v Gore redux and goes STOP THE COUNT.

Yikes, if there's only 25k votes left to count, Casey's cooked. 50k or more, especially disproportionately located in Philly and Pittsburgh, is prolly what he needs.

And not just that, he needs speed too. If these votes don't get counted in time, it probably doesn't matter how many there are left.
There's still reasons I would much rather be McCormick than Casey at this moment.

[MT Treasurer]

The kiss of death

Why Collins Cant Win

[Flyersfan232]

As it stands in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Dave McCormick holds a lead of about 17,432 votes, or 0.25%, over incumbent Bob Casey. However, despite DDHQ and AP calling the race for McCormick, there was an estimated 80k votes left to count, mainly provisional, mail-in, and absentee, from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with a recount underway.

While some of this vote has been counted since, not all of it has in fact been counted, and much seemingly still remains. Thus far, these votes have skewed quite heavily in Casey's favor, allowing him to not-insignificantly narrow the margin. For reference, McCormick held a margin of 34k votes over Casey mere days ago.

Now, this isn't me saying Casey WILL win, but i certainly think it is unwise at this point to call it a lock for McCormick, especially since the amount of votes left is unclear and based on estimates, meaning it could be lower or higher.

no case

[PALiberal]

Has there been any further updates in the last couple of days?