Dems in Latino seats going forward - at risk?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

For now it seems, the Dem collapse among Latinos was especially felt at the top of the ticket and not as much for Congressional races.

Could that change? Realignments tend to begin with the top of the ticket, but when trends continue for long enough, it starts affecting downballot more too.

Dems should not take their Latino seats for granted. This is obvious for marginal ones like the two Fajita Strips they still won this year, but I'd argue it's also true for Raul Ruiz or Sylvia Garcia or Norma Torres or even Nydia Velazquez's seat if things get bad enough.

In NJ-09 Nellie Pou only won by 4.5%. Sure, she wasn't an incumbent, but Pascrell put up a weak performance in 2022 too that was largely written off as being due to poor turnout that year.

Could we see Dems start coming really close to losing - or even outright losing - Latino majority or plurality seats that were once, or even still, thought of as Safe D?

Grijalva is retiring in 2026 - things could get dangerous even in a seat like that.

If this realignment is here to stay, it's going to eventually really start affecting these Congressional seats and that should keep every Democrat up at night.

[riverwalk7]

Think they are safe in 2026; Democrats still have the higher propensity Latino voters, while Trump has lower propensity Latino voters (ie look at the difference between LV and RV crosstabs with Latino voters in every single NYT/Siena poll). However, things could be dicey in 2028 if Vance does well with Latinos.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Nah.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Nah.

Care to elaborate on that a bit?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Down-ballot Democrats, especially Hispanic ones, still seem to have enough appeal to keep getting re-elected.

I think the bigger issue with someone like Cuellar is his corruption problem.

[MargieCat]

Hopefully, there is a windshield wiper effect where Latinos swing back leftwards. They did that from 2004-2008.

I'm interested to see how Nellie Pou does going forward. She got elected by a narrow margin this cycle, and is now a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. I think there is a chance this was her closest election and she becomes popular with her constituents. I'm sure Republicans could try and hammer her with attacks on culture war issues. She seems like the type that could become entrenched.

As for South Texas, Democrats probably need to keep running moderate candidates in the mold of Henry Cuellar, except without the baggage. Bonus points if they are a police officer or have a military background. Instead of Michelle Vallejo, Democrats can try running Ruben Ramirez, who lost his primary to her in 2022. He was endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition and Vote Vets. Not saying Monica will go down, but I think Vallejo was probably too liberal for the area.

[New World Man]

People are going way too far making assumptions in a very low turnout election.

[ottermax]

I think we are starting to see evidence that the coalition is fraying downballot.

In California Republicans are flipping two Hispanic majority assembly seats including one covering Imperial County. This could've been possible in low turnout scenarios historically, but in a high turnout scenario they are flipping which is an alarm bell.

In the Central Valley seats where low turnout has been the blame for losing Hispanic majority seats in the past the races are not looking favorable for Democrats this year with higher turnout.

The only reason most Hispanic majority seats aren't as big of an issue in most of the country is that they tend to be shared with a more moderate or Democratic non-Hispanic electorate that makes it more difficult to flip them to Republicans.

I think a key challenge will be for Blue States to improve cost of living in the short to medium term to regain trust with these voters. Check out the cost to buy a house in the Central Valley and be shocked at how expensive it is to own a home in one of the poorest regions of the country. Delivering on other key promises like high-speed rail or other big ticket items will also earn trust, but until then Democrats will keep bleeding votes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hopefully, there is a windshield wiper effect where Latinos swing back leftwards. They did that from 2004-2008.

I'm interested to see how Nellie Pou does going forward. She got elected by a narrow margin this cycle, and is now a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. I think there is a chance this was her closest election and she becomes popular with her constituents. I'm sure Republicans could try and hammer her with attacks on culture war issues. She seems like the type that could become entrenched.

As for South Texas, Democrats probably need to keep running moderate candidates in the mold of Henry Cuellar, except without the baggage. Bonus points if they are a police officer or have a military background. Instead of Michelle Vallejo, Democrats can try running Ruben Ramirez, who lost his primary to her in 2022. He was endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition and Vote Vets. Not saying Monica will go down, but I think Vallejo was probably too liberal for the area.

Nellie Pou should be in good shape once her constituents outside the Hispanic Passaic County areas get familiar with her, and in a better national environment than 2024. She'll definitely do better than Pascrell whose age was really showing in his campaigns and election results. It's possible he could have lost this year in NJ-9 if he was still alive.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Ppu is cuba so criticizing a bit the Castros would help her with moderates with negible lose on the left.

[lfromnj]

Probably just Cuellar for 2026, as the GOP base is still higher propensity in his seat(San Antonio exurbs) . That's also a curse for the GOP though there as it makes it harder for a Latino to win the primary.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Hopefully, there is a windshield wiper effect where Latinos swing back leftwards. They did that from 2004-2008.

I'm interested to see how Nellie Pou does going forward. She got elected by a narrow margin this cycle, and is now a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. I think there is a chance this was her closest election and she becomes popular with her constituents. I'm sure Republicans could try and hammer her with attacks on culture war issues. She seems like the type that could become entrenched.

As for South Texas, Democrats probably need to keep running moderate candidates in the mold of Henry Cuellar, except without the baggage. Bonus points if they are a police officer or have a military background. Instead of Michelle Vallejo, Democrats can try running Ruben Ramirez, who lost his primary to her in 2022. He was endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition and Vote Vets. Not saying Monica will go down, but I think Vallejo was probably too liberal for the area.

Nellie Pou should be in good shape once her constituents outside the Hispanic Passaic County areas get familiar with her, and in a better national environment than 2024. She'll definitely do better than Pascrell whose age was really showing in his campaigns and election results. It's possible he could have lost this year in NJ-9 if he was still alive.

I am a little bit concerned that she joined the Progressive Caucus though. Kind of a reckless thing to do when you won by single digits in a district where trends are against Dems.

[MargieCat]

Hopefully, there is a windshield wiper effect where Latinos swing back leftwards. They did that from 2004-2008.

I'm interested to see how Nellie Pou does going forward. She got elected by a narrow margin this cycle, and is now a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. I think there is a chance this was her closest election and she becomes popular with her constituents. I'm sure Republicans could try and hammer her with attacks on culture war issues. She seems like the type that could become entrenched.

As for South Texas, Democrats probably need to keep running moderate candidates in the mold of Henry Cuellar, except without the baggage. Bonus points if they are a police officer or have a military background. Instead of Michelle Vallejo, Democrats can try running Ruben Ramirez, who lost his primary to her in 2022. He was endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition and Vote Vets. Not saying Monica will go down, but I think Vallejo was probably too liberal for the area.

Nellie Pou should be in good shape once her constituents outside the Hispanic Passaic County areas get familiar with her, and in a better national environment than 2024. She'll definitely do better than Pascrell whose age was really showing in his campaigns and election results. It's possible he could have lost this year in NJ-9 if he was still alive.

I am a little bit concerned that she joined the Progressive Caucus though. Kind of a reckless thing to do when you won by single digits in a district where trends are against Dems.

I don't believe Bill Pascrell was even in the CPC.

In her CPC speech, she seemed to come off as moderate, talking about building coalitions and delivering for her district. She stuck to kitchen table issues. She seems to know what she is doing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably just Cuellar, as the GOP base is still higher propensity in his seat(San Antonio exurbs) . That's also a curse for the GOP though there as it makes it harder for a Latino to win the primary.

This probably won't happen in Cueller's seat this decade, but I'm curious if there's any swingy House seats where coalitions could outright reverse to where Dems are primarily reliant on higher propensity white voters while Republicans are reliant on lower propensity Hispanics. CO-08 seems like the type of place to have this potential, though not sure it'll happen by the end of the decade.

[New World Man]

Why do people think these trends work for a more generic Republican?